Why I Changed My Mind. And Why You Should Too.

This essay is published alongside the launch episode of our new video series, Confessions, in which people explain why and how they changed their mind. Watch episode one here.

The night of the 2024 election, I was a guest on the stream of liberal influencer Steve Bonnell, better known as Destiny. We were both critical of the populist turn in the GOP but, being more conservative than him, I had nonetheless voted for Trump. Speaking after it was clear that Trump had likely won, I said that if RFK were appointed to an important position, I would know that I had made a mistake.

A few weeks later, Trump nominated the most prominent vaccine skeptic in the country to the top position in the public health bureaucracy. I criticized that decision, but held out hope that maybe he wouldn’t be confirmed. This hope was soon dashed too.

I had also said Trump’s tariffs wouldn’t be so bad. After all, I thought, the U.S. effective tariff rate reached a high of just 3.5 percent in the first term. I argued about this with the writer Matthew Yglesias and others, and even made a prediction market to bet money that the number would not reach 6 percent in 2025. It became clear I would lose that bet during Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” speech, in which he announced tariffs that immediately tanked the stock market.