2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology sees new No. 1 after Selection Committee reveal, marquee games

After the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee revealed its Top 16 overall seeds at this point in the season, many teams across college basketball hit the floor looking to raise their stock. A battle between Michigan and Duke sets the tone on a weekend full of big results across the bracket.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the bubble teams create headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, UConn
Last four byes: Texas A&M, UCLA, Texas, Indiana
Last four in: Ohio State, Santa Clara, New Mexico, Missouri
First four out: TCU, USC, Virginia Tech, VCU

First Four (Dayton)

16 Bethune Cookman (SWAC) vs. 16 SEMO (OVC)
16 UMBC (AEC) vs. 16 Howard (MEAC)
11 Ohio State vs. 11 Santa Clara
11 New Mexico vs. 11 Missouri

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 UMBC/Howard
8 St. Mary’s vs. 9 Georgia
Portland
5 St. John’s vs. 12 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
4 Alabama vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Buffalo
6 Louisville vs. 11 New Mexico/Missouri
3 Illinois vs. 14 ETSU (SoCon)
Oklahoma City
7 St. Louis (A10) vs. 10 UCLA
2 Houston vs. 15 Portland State (Big Sky)

1-seed Duke

Duke propels itself to the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology following a head-to-head win over Michigan which provides them the best case in college basketball for the top spot. The Blue Devils have Notre Dame on the schedule next.

2-seed Houston

Houston dropped to the 2-seed line when the Selection Committee revealed its Top 16 teams, behind Iowa State and UConn by thin margins. A loss against Arizona only solidified their drop, as they prepare to face Kansas next.

South (Houston)

Buffalo
1 UConn vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
8 NC State vs. 9 UCF
Philadelphia
5 Vanderbilt vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Michigan State vs. 13 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
San Diego
6 North Carolina vs. 11 Ohio State/Santa Clara
3 Texas Tech vs. 14 UC Irvine (Big West)
St. Louis
7 Kentucky vs. 10 Clemson
2 Purdue vs. 15 Navy (Patriot)

1-seed UConn

UConn sits atop the list of 2-seed teams after the weekend win over Villanova, paired with a nod from the Selection Committee during the Top 16 reveal. They look to make a 1-seed leap in bracketology with a midweek game against St. John’s atop the Big East.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue sits on the 2-seed line of bracketology in the same spot the Selection Committee placed them, coming off a Friday win over Indiana. The Boilermakers will face Michigan State next, looking to climb closer to the 1-seed debate.

Midwest (Chicago)

Philadelphia
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 Appalachian State (SBC)
8 Utah State (MWC) vs. 9 Miami
Tampa
5 Arkansas vs. 12 Belmont (MVC)
4 Virginia vs. 13 Liberty (CUSA)
Portland
6 Iowa vs. 11 Miami (OH) (MAC)
3 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 14 North Dakota State (Summit)
St. Louis
7 Wisconsin vs. 10 Texas A&M
2 Iowa State vs. 15 Wright State (Horizon)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan falls off the top spot in bracketology this week, losing a head-to-head matchup against Duke on Saturday. The Wolverines were confirmed as the Selection Committee’s top team that morning, but will now need to rebound against Minnesota.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State jumped onto the 1-seed line, as the Selection Committee gave them the nod over UConn and Houston. The Cyclones suffered a loss against BYU, setting back to a 2-seed before facing Utah.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 Bethune Cookman/SEMO
8 SMU vs. 9 Auburn
Greenville
5 Tennessee vs. 12 South Florida (American)
4 Kansas vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Oklahoma City
6 BYU vs. 11 Texas
3 Nebraska vs. 14 Austin Peay (ASUN)
Tampa
7 Villanova vs. 10 Indiana
2 Florida vs. 15 Merrimack (MAAC)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona got the expected 1-seed nod from the Selection Committee, then backed it up with a road win over Houston which helps elevate them in the conversation with Michigan and Duke. The Wildcats now prepare to play Baylor with a chance to keep climbing.

2-seed Florida

Florida jumps onto the projected 2-seed line following a loss by Illinois and the nod from Selection Committee members that they entered the day as the best 3-seed on the board. The Gators picked up a win against Ole Miss and will face Texas next.