Men’s NCAA Tournament bubble watch: TCU, Mizzou and both Miamis moving on up in March

Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

The clock is ticking down, and bubble teams everywhere are scrambling to finish their homework before it is pencils down on Selection Sunday. Quite a few squads had strong weeks, but for those that remain precariously balanced on the cutline, the opportunities to secure their safety are dwindling.

Ahead of the regular season’s final weekend, we have upped the number of Locks to 34. Notably, though, that group could consist of as many as eight automatic bids (the P5 league winners, Gonzaga, Saint Louis, Utah State). That still leaves up to 11 open spots to fill out the 37 at-large berths that are up for grabs. We also have only promoted four teams to Should Be In, and that includes another possible automatic bid: undefeated Miami (Ohio).

All of that is to say that, without any bid stealers, we are holding as many as eight open spots for the 18 teams classified as “In the Mix” below. Some, like NC State and Texas A&M, appear more likely than not to dance, while others, such as Seton Hall and San Diego State, desperately need to find a few victories in the next nine days.

Of course, even those “safer” teams are in an important pursuit themselves: avoiding the First Four in Dayton, where the season can end in the blink of an eye before even making the Round of 64. Dodging that landmine remains a major incentive for teams lingering around the bubble.

A side note above the bubble: Are we a little nervous about having Iowa and Utah State in the Lock category, given their metrics and recent performance? Yes, a little bit! Iowa losing at Penn State and Utah State getting clobbered at UNLV were alarming results. But we are sticking to our guns here and still believe they will both be in the NCAA Tournament — though we are keeping a close eye on both.

Check out the primer below before you dive in; many of the key terms will be repeated throughout the article. And for a projection of the actual bracket, here’s Joe Rexrode’s latest Bracket Watch.

• Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
• Locks are teams that have reached a 100 percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament, per Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast. This blends both current resume and forward-looking projections.
• Should Be In teams are a few wins from Lock status and not really in much danger of missing the dance right now.
• In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
• On the Fringe teams are a win or two away from true bubble consideration.
• Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
• Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.

Movement

Up to Lock: Clemson, Georgia, Kentucky, Miami (Fla.), Saint Louis, Saint Mary’s
Up to Should Be In: Miami (Ohio), Missouri, TCU, UCLA
Up to In the Mix: None
Added to On the Fringe: Stanford
Down to In the Mix: NC State
Down to On the Fringe: None
Dropped from On the Fringe: Liberty, West Virginia

Current totals

Locks: 34
Should Be In: 4
In the Mix: 18
On the Fringe: 6

ACC

Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (Fla.), North Carolina, Virginia
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: California, NC State, SMU, Virginia Tech
On the Fringe: Stanford

In the Mix

California (21-9, 9-8; WAB rank: 47)
Profile Strengths: Four Quadrant 1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Awful nonconference strength of schedule, poor quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: Cal nearly double-sabotaged itself this week. The blowout Q3 home loss to Pitt on Saturday was bad enough, but the Golden Bears also trailed Georgia Tech at halftime on Wednesday. Fortunately, they rallied and defeated the Yellow Jackets, keeping their dwindling at-large hopes alive. Cal must win at Wake Forest on Saturday in a game that currently resides in Q1, and the Bears might need another couple of wins at the ACC tournament to feel safe.

NC State (19-11, 10-7; WAB rank: 40)
Profile Strengths: Overall strong metrics, solid Q1/Q2 record.
Profile Weaknesses: Possesses an awful Q4 loss.
What They Need: For the first time this season, we are knocking a team down from Should Be In to In the Mix. That’s what happens when you lose five of six, including three games by 29-plus, and drop a shaky road game to Notre Dame. People are now asking the quiet question out loud: Is Will Wade’s team going to tumble all the way out of the field? The Wolfpack badly need to take care of Stanford at home this weekend. If they do not, they will have work to do at the ACC tournament.

SMU (19-11, 8-9; WAB rank: 46)
Profile Strengths: Decent metrics, zero bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Limited high-end wins.
Looking Ahead: The SMU backslide continued this week, as the Mustangs got swept in California and then lost at home to Miami. They have now lost three straight, falling under .500 in the ACC and looking less and less like an NCAA Tournament team. Andy Enfield’s team was in Joe Rexrode’s “Last Four Byes” before the home loss to Miami, so it is reasonable to conclude the Ponies would now be headed to Dayton for the First Four. They need to find a win at Florida State in the season finale on Saturday or risk dropping out of the field altogether.

Virginia Tech (19-11, 8-9; WAB rank: 49)
Profile Strengths: Decent resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: Beating BC at home is essentially the first login screen for an ACC at-large hopeful, so it was encouraging to see the Hokies input their credentials on Tuesday night. Prior to that, they battled but ultimately came up short at UNC over the weekend, which means the week has been a wash. Opportunity knocks, though, as Virginia Tech hits the road going for a sweep of archrival Virginia on Saturday. Should the Hokies pull that off, they may receive an Evite to the NCAA Tournament regardless of what happens at the ACC tournament.

Big 12

Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, UCF
Should Be In: TCU
In the Mix: Cincinnati, Oklahoma State
On the Fringe: Arizona State

Should Be In

TCU (20-10, 10-7; WAB rank: 35)
What They Need: Major credit to the Horned Frogs, who have done exactly what you’d want a bubble team to do: Win a lot, and win key games. They have now won seven of their past eight, including huge Q1A victories in mid-February over Iowa State and this past week at Texas Tech, and have vaulted from 3-6 to 10-7 in the Big 12. The sum total of those efforts: TCU is now sitting pretty for an at-large bid, lurking much closer to the 8/9 seed line than the actual cutline.

In the Mix

Cincinnati (17-13, 9-8; WAB rank: 58)
Profile Strengths: Two high-end Q1A wins, strong quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Possess a Q4 loss, poor resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Bearcats’ eleventh-hour postseason push continued this week with two nearly identical blowout home wins: 90-68 over Oklahoma State, 91-68 over BYU. What was once a hopeless 11-12 team is now a surging 17-13 squad with real designs on sneaking into the NCAA Tournament. Cincinnati’s WAB is still lagging well below zero, and only Xavier earned an at-large bid with a negative WAB last season (-0.12). Fortunately for Wes Miller’s rejuvenated group, it can get close to that number with a road win at TCU on Saturday.

Oklahoma State (18-12, 6-11; WAB rank: 52)
Profile Strengths: No bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: 2-9 Q1 record, awful quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: Every week, we expect to send the Cowboys out to pasture. The Big 12 record is an eyesore, and every predictive metric tells us this team is not NCAA Tournament quality. And yet! Oklahoma State just completed a sweep of UCF, and that road win kept the Cowboys in range of the bubble. In terms of WAB, Oklahoma State resides right between California, Indiana, Seton Hall and San Diego State, so we cannot eliminate OSU in good faith. If the Pokes somehow topple Houston on Saturday, we’re going to have an extremely controversial 7-11 Big 12 team on our hands.

Big East

Locks: St. John’s, UConn, Villanova
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Seton Hall
On the Fringe: None

In the Mix

Seton Hall (20-10, 10-9; WAB rank: 54)
Profile Strengths: 6-5 road record.
Profile Weaknesses: Iffy metrics, only one Q1 win.
Looking Ahead: Seton Hall could not pull off the massive upset at UConn over the weekend, but the Pirates stayed within range of the cutline thanks to a midweek win at Xavier. That sets up a colossal showdown with Rick Pitino and St. John’s at the Prudential Center on Friday night. Shaheen Holloway’s Pirates desperately need that game to mount a legitimate bubble push before the Big East tournament. With a loss there, Seton Hall would need a trip to the Big East tournament title game to have a chance at an at-large.

Big Ten

Locks: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Indiana, Ohio State, UCLA, USC
On the Fringe: None

Should Be In

UCLA (20-10, 12-7; WAB rank: 32)
What They Need: If the NCAA Tournament was played at Pauley Pavilion, UCLA might be one of our top contenders. The Bruins finished the season 16-1 in their own building, notching another huge win over Nebraska late on Tuesday (with the tip time irking UCLA coach Mick Cronin). Alas, UCLA will have to leave its home arena — and likely the Pacific time zone — to play in the NCAA Tournament. But that is a good problem to have, and the Bruins have earned their way toward safer classification with an impressive Big Ten regular season campaign.

In the Mix

Indiana (18-12, 9-10; WAB rank: 48)
Profile Strengths: Two excellent high-end Q1A victories, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 5-12 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: The Hoosiers never really had a chance against Michigan State on Sunday, trailing by double-digits for almost the entire final 30 minutes. That added yet another loss to their ugly Q1 record. Fortunately, Indiana bounced back by eviscerating Minnesota on Wednesday, setting the stage for an enormous bubble battle at Ohio State on Saturday. That may not quite be a “win and you’re in” game for IU — another win or two at the Big Ten tournament would go a long way — but the Hoosiers would be on frighteningly thin ice with a loss.

Ohio State (19-11, 10-9; WAB rank: 39)
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, competitive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 2-10 against Q1.
Looking Ahead: Ohio State’s results have started to catch up with its terrific quality metrics. The Buckeyes’ Sunday matinee win over Purdue finally legitimized what had been a mostly theoretical profile, and they followed that up with a massacre of Penn State in State College. They now reside slightly above the true bubble mess, though a home loss to Indiana on Saturday could drop them right back into the fray. A win, though, would push OSU up a category.

USC (18-12, 7-12; WAB rank: 50)
Profile Strengths: Strong Q1+Q2 record.
Profile Weaknesses: Took a Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Trojans are barely clinging to life. Their resume metrics are still in the ballpark of an at-large team, but their best wins happened while Chad Baker-Mazara was on the team, and that is no longer the case. Losing two games this week, albeit tough Q1 tilts, by a combined 34 points is not a good look for the committee; neither is a six-game losing streak. Even if USC gets close to the field, evaluating the “current version” — aka the one without Baker-Mazara — would probably exclude USC from the NCAA Tournament. Beating rival UCLA this weekend could be too little, too late.

SEC

Locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Should Be In: Missouri
In the Mix: Auburn, Texas, Texas A&M
On the Fringe: None

Should Be In

Missouri (20-10, 10-7; WAB rank: 37)
What They Need: Mizzou split its week on the road, demolishing Mississippi State before getting blitzed at Oklahoma. Even a home loss to Arkansas on Saturday would not drop the Tigers out of the field, as they have several huge wins and zero bad losses. Their resume metrics, including WAB, are well within NCAA Tournament range. A bad loss in the SEC tournament could reopen the discussion, but as of now, Missouri should make plans for its third tourney in four years under Dennis Gates.

In the Mix

Auburn (16-14, 7-10; WAB rank: 45)
Profile Strengths: Solid metrics, four Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Quantity of losses.
Looking Ahead: Golf clap to the Tigers, who got out of their “lost seven of eight” funk by taking down LSU at home. That game mattered more to Auburn’s overall ledger (and remaining above .500) than it did as an actual impactful victory. However, the Tigers’ home loss to Ole Miss over the weekend is their first of the Q3 variety, undercutting the idea that Auburn beats who it is supposed to, at the very least. This weekend looms large, with the hoops version of the Iron Bowl taking place in Tuscaloosa. Auburn badly needs a victory there to help offset the number of losses it has accumulated.

Texas (18-12, 9-8; WAB Rank: 42)
Profile Strengths: Strong high-end wins and quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Have a Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Longhorns’ weekend win at Texas A&M looms large, breaking up what would have been a poorly timed four-game losing streak. Getting crushed at Arkansas in the midweek game was alarming, but Texas remains in decent shape. The Horns’ season wraps up with Red River rival Oklahoma in Austin on Saturday. That game is comfortably Q2, so even a loss would not harm Texas too much. Adding an immediate loss in the SEC tournament would make things dicey, though.

Texas A&M (20-10, 10-7; WAB rank: 41)
Profile Strengths: Strong metrics, no bad losses, three outstanding Q1A victories.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor NC SOS.
What They Need: After losing at home to Texas over the weekend, scary hours had begun in College Station. The Aggies had lost six of eight and were drifting dangerously close to the cutline. After 12 minutes on Tuesday night, it did not look any better, as they trailed Kentucky 30-18 at home. Cue a potentially season-saving 29-3 run, and suddenly Bucky Ball is in solid shape once again to get an at-large invitation. The Aggies throttled Kentucky for the middle 20 minutes, and though a season-ending trip to LSU could be tricky, Texas A&M’s worst case — 20-12, roughly 0.50 WAB — might still be good enough. One more win, either in Baton Rouge or at the SEC tournament, should do the trick.

The Rest

Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Louis, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
Should Be In: Miami (Ohio)
In the Mix: Belmont, New Mexico, San Diego State, Santa Clara, VCU
On the Fringe: Boise State, Liberty, Nevada, South Florida

Should Be In

Miami (Ohio) (30-0, 17-0 MAC; WAB rank: 30)
What They Need: If your worst-case scenario is 30-2 with a regular season conference title, you get to move up to Should Be In. That’s just one of our unbreakable rules here at Bubble Watch. Yes, the RedHawks won two games by a mere four combined points this week. But that sentence stops mattering for us after “the RedHawks won two games.” Travis Steele’s team is comfortably in the NCAA Tournament based on WAB and other resume metrics, and we are inclined to believe the RedHawks would still be in even if they lose their next two games.

In the Mix

Belmont (26-5, 16-4 Missouri Valley; WAB rank: 53)
Profile Strengths: 5-2 record vs. top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: No Q1 games, three Q3 losses, terrible noncon SOS.
Looking Ahead: Keeping Belmont here is probably more of a courtesy than an indication of true possibility. The Bruins dropped their season finale at Illinois State, a game that could have pushed them into realistic at-large range in WAB and the other resume metrics. Now, Belmont cannot really improve its profile while also taking a loss in the Arch Madness title game, so the Bruins are more or less stuck where they are. Perhaps the committee would throw them a bone as the best “true” mid-major, however.

New Mexico (22-7, 13-5 Mountain West; WAB rank: 51)
Profile Strengths: 8-6 vs. top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q1 wins, two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: On Wednesday night, the Lobos joined the rest of the Mountain West at-large hopefuls with a remarkably awful performance that likely offset any goodwill earned via beating San Diego State over the weekend. New Mexico trailed by as many as 19 points in a convincing home loss to Colorado State, adding a second Q3 loss to a ledger that cannot afford to get any worse. Eric Olen’s team gets a massive opportunity from the schedule gods, though, with a road game at Utah State on Saturday presenting a chance to go right back to the good side of the bubble. If the Lobos fall in Logan, they will need to make noise in Las Vegas at the Mountain West tournament.

San Diego State (19-10, 13-6 Mountain West; WAB rank: 57)
Profile Strengths: Excellent noncon SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, fringe resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Aztecs are losing touch with the cutline. Two Q1 road losses are not disastrous by themselves, but San Diego State has now lost four of its last five and is leaking oil near the finish line. The Aztecs’ metrics have slipped, and they are now just 7-9 against the top two quadrants. A season-ending meeting with UNLV in San Diego will do little to change the narrative, so San Diego State likely needs to get to the Mountain West final to really push for an at-large selection.

Santa Clara (24-7, 15-3 West Coast; WAB rank: 43)
Profile Strengths: Competitive metrics, solid Q1/Q2 record.
Profile Weaknesses: Worst loss in bubble group, only one Q1 win.
Looking Ahead: The Broncos did what they needed to do in their finale, destroying lame duck coach Wayne Tinkle and Oregon State. They now wait for the WCC tournament ladder to climb its way to them in the quarterfinals. To have any level of comfort on Selection Sunday, Santa Clara needs to win that game and then upset Saint Mary’s, which has proven to be a poor matchup for Herb Sendek’s team this year.

VCU (23-7, 14-3 Atlantic 10; WAB rank: 44)
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, competitive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Only one Q1 win.
Looking Ahead: After securing two home victories, the Rams have now won 12 of their last 13, with the only loss coming in a Q1A road game at Saint Louis. They have stealthily crept to the cusp of the bubble, with a clean resume that is admittedly lacking in top-end weight. They can add a Q1 victory at Dayton on Friday (the Flyers are just inside the NET top 75), and a win there might have VCU in the field ahead of a potentially chaotic Championship Week.

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