How Trump’s Iran War Could Actually Worsen Climate Change
TRUMP’S WAR OF CHOICE with Iran has many costs—in dollars, munitions, lives. But you could imagine at least one possible upside: climate.
This global oil crisis has again highlighted the riskiness of dependence on fossil fuels and the relative resilience of renewable energy. After all, naval blockades can stop oil tankers from traversing a narrow strait but they can’t keep the sun from shining or the wind from blowing.
We’d be more economically insulated if our country had built out more utility-scale solar projects, wind farms, batteries, and all the other clean-energy infrastructure that then-President Joe Biden subsidized and that Trump subsequently killed. Maybe this war will finally build more political will for green investment—not for bleeding-heart, tree-huggy reasons, but for our national and economic security.
You might assume all this. I initially did.
But, at least in the short term, it’s likely wrong. Instead, a sustained oil disruption could end up shattering the world’s attempts to curb climate change. That’s because it’s screwing up Europe’s ambitious climate plans, which are A) much more important than anything the United States is doing, and B) basically holding the global climate effort together.
When I started reporting out this newsletter, I thought it would be a good news/silver lining–type story. The headline I had in mind: “Trump’s Accidental Plan to Fight Climate Change.” After all, the war has already led to a shutdown of a fifth of the world’s oil supply, which is a keep-it-in-the-ground climate hawk’s dream.
The subsequent runup in energy costs has likely boosted some climate-friendly incentives elsewhere in the economy: The prospect of $4-a-gallon gasoline may get more Americans out buying EVs. Higher electricity prices might lead more people to persuade their HOAs to allow rooftop solar. And so on.
But those kinds of changes are small bore compared to what really matters—and what really matters right now is
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