Kentucky vs. Florida, SEC Tournament Quarterfinals

It’s Kentucky vs. Florida, Round Three, this time for a spot in the SEC Tournament semifinals. The Gators have gotten the best of the Cats in the first two meetings. Is it true that it’s hard to beat a team three times in one season, or will fatigue catch up with the Cats, who will be playing their third game in three days vs. a top-five team, the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament?

The KSR crew is ready to weigh in with our Parlour Pizza Pregame Predictions.

Tyler Thompson

I’m just happy Kentucky made it to this point. The Cats avoided the worst-case scenarios in Nashville, beating LSU and Missouri to at least make it to Friday of the SEC Tournament. I doubt anyone would say there is shame in losing to a very good Florida team after playing on back-to-back days. The Gators are very good and will have fresh legs. A loss would be completely understandable.

That said, the roars in Bridgestone from Wednesday and Thursday are still ringing in my ears, a reminder of how awesome this is when Kentucky’s rolling. The Cats have been far from perfect this week, but they’ve got a little bit of swagger after holding off both sets of Tigers to advance. Kentucky is playing with house money today, while Florida has some work to do to secure its No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The Three-Headed GOAT was back vs. Missouri, Collin Chandler, Otega Oweh, and Denzel Aberdeen combining for 52 of the Cats’ 78 points. All three will need to be dialed in and red-hot for Kentucky to have a chance at the upset; however, the frontcourt will end up being the difference. Will having Kam Williams on the court make an impact? Will Malachi Moreno, Andrija Jelavic, and Brandon Garrison hold their own against the Gators’ bigs?

Confession: when I first wrote this prediction on Thursday night, I had Florida winning. I woke up this morning with a different result in mind. It’s been really fun to see my team win in Bridgestone Arena again; I’m not ready for it to be over. I hope the Cats feel the same.

Score: Kentucky 84, Florida 83

Nick Roush

It feels like 2014. I wrote about it in the morning post, but I’m catching similar vibes between the two scenarios. Florida was one of the best college basketball teams all year, and after taking two losses in the regular season, Kentucky had the Gators on the ropes. If James Young stayed on his feet during that final possession, Kentucky could’ve knocked ’em off in the third matchup and won the SEC Tournament.

The biggest difference between then and now is the scoring required to win a game against a team of this caliber. Otega Oweh will probably do his thing. Denzel Aberdeen has played well in the two games against his former team. Collin Chandler did not play well against the Gators last week, but went hunting for shots against LSU, then rediscovered his groove in the win over Missouri.

Those three can lead the way, but Kentucky will need something more against the Gators. Malachi Moreno hasn’t been playing his best basketball as of late. Kentucky needs it today, and I’m afraid they won’t get enough to secure the win. However, they will put enough pressure on Florida to make for an exciting afternoon of basketball.

Score: Florida 88, Kentucky 84

Jacob Polacheck

Kentucky has won its last two SEC Tournament games, setting up another rematch with the Florida Gators. After losing to the defending national champs twice this year, this will likely be their last chance to come away with a victory.

This is where I’m predicting the run ends for the Cats. Florida just has too much talent across the board, and the Gators have shown to have their number this season. Florida has arguably the best starting five in the entire country and Todd Golden will have them ready vs. Kentucky. I’m still expecting a solid performance from Otega Oweh, but UK will need excellent showings from the entire rotation to pull this one off.

Score: Florida 89, Kentucky 78

Adam Luckett

Kentucky and Florida will meet for the third time this season at Bridgestone Arena on Friday afternoon. This one probably plays out like the last two.

UK has played the Gators tougher than anyone else in the conference. UK easily meets Florida’s pace and has held their own on the glass. However, the defensive end has let the Wildcats down in both meetings. The Gators are shooting 18-of-46 (39.1%) from deep against the Wildcats this year. When Todd Golden’s team shoots that percentage from distance, I’m not sure anyone can beat them.

This one will come down to what happens at the three-point line. Kentucky is shooting just 19-of-77 (24.7%) from three in three games at Bridgestone this season. The Wildcats simply need a shot variance game to win this matchup. That means one where UK pours in 10-plus threes and Florida goes cold.

These two teams play very similar styles. The pace will be up. Points will be scored. There will likely be some foul trouble to manage on both sides. Florida’s inside presence likely leads to an advantage on the glass and in total shot volume. UK has struggled to finish around the rim in both matchups. Kentucky has to win the three-point battle. They probably need to win it by 12 points or more.

Unfortunately, Bridgestone Arena doesn’t feel like the gym where that can be done.

Score: Florida 86, Kentucky 80

Zack Geoghegan

Adam Luckett put it best: Kentucky needs to shake off the three-point shooting woes in Bridgestone Arena, and it needs to happen today. UK is 9-2 this season when they hit 10 or more triples. That will be a key benchmark to hit if the ‘Cats want to overcome being double-digit underdogs. Denzel Aberdeen also needs to have another big game against his former team. He’s a combined 12-34 from the field against the Gators this season. If he can have an efficient shooting day while keeping up his pace as a floor general, that will only help the ‘Cats.

But that Florida frontcourt, man. Yikes. The Kam Williams factor will matter. He’s an ideal defender for someone like Thomas Haugh, a mobile and highly talented 6-foot-9 wing. How much can he impact the game defensively after playing 30 combined minutes in the first two games, coming off the broken foot? He’s already hit a couple of threes this week — let’s add a couple more. But even if all of the above swing in Kentucky’s favor, Florida will have to play an off game for UK to come out on top. UF is a national title contender for a reason. With the way the Gators have played over the last two months, it’s hard to believe they’ll come out rusty.

Score: Florida 89, Kentucky 82

Jack Pilgrim

Folks, it’s time. After two respectable efforts in the regular season against the Gators, we’re going to speak into existence that things will not unfold the way they did in round three against Alabama in this same spot. We had similar hope, only to be run out of Bridgestone Arena in a 29-point win for the Crimson Tide. That was humiliating and we can’t be having that again. The differences this time around, not just from the 3-0 sweep for the Tide, but also the 2-0 regular season sweep for the Gators? Health and 3-point shooting.

Kam Williams is back for the Wildcats and playing very well, all things considered. He certainly doesn’t look like someone seven weeks removed from a broken foot. UK didn’t have him in either of those previous losses, taking away a Thomas Haugh stopper and limiting the firepower to throw at a wagon of a UF team, playing like the national championship favorite right now. Also, the Cats were just 6-21 from three against the Tigers, pushing their streak of games in single digits from the perimeter to four and six of their last seven. They only hit nine in the first matchup against the Gators and eight in the second. They’re due an explosion from deep.

Williams and Collin Chandler combine for six made threes with the team hitting a dozen en route to the unlikely upset to survive and advance to the SEC Tournament semifinals.

Score: Kentucky 86, Florida 82

Drew Franklin

It’s been a fun ride so far in the SEC Tournament, with the Cats winning a couple of games to set up today’s rematch against Florida. Kentucky has looked good in Nashville, and the fans have enjoyed getting back to winning ways in the Music City. That being said, I think today marks the end of the road at this year’s SEC. Florida is too stacked with fresh legs. Kentucky keeps it tight until the very end, but goes down to the Gators.

Florida 85, Kentucky 80

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[9] Kentucky vs. [1] Florida: How to Watch, Listen

• Tipoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN (Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes, Alyssa Lang)
• Local Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• AM: 840 WHAS, 630 WLAP
• FM: 98.1 WBUL
• Online: iHeart Radio
• Sirius XM: 106 or 190

You can also follow along on the KSR LIVE BLOG, which will start a few hours before tipoff, and join the conversation on KSBoard.

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