Oscar Projections Before Awards Show
A NOTE FROM SCOTT It’s time for one last check-in ahead of the 98th Academy Awards!
As my fellow pundits and I agreed this week when Gold Derby convened us for a preview of Sunday’s ceremony, all but one of the “big six” categories remain too close to call with any great degree of confidence. Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley is universally expected to win best actress, but best picture, director, actor, supporting actor and supporting actress are genuine nailbiters, and predicting them only got harder following the recent controversy at the BAFTA Awards and surprises at the Actor Awards.
It certainly feels like Sinners has late-breaking momentum, but I believe that it is my job to make picks based on facts, not feelings, and statistics continue to point toward One Battle After Another in the best picture race and Paul Thomas Anderson in the best director race. If Sinners and/or Ryan Coogler end up prevailing instead, I will be just as happy — just the like distributor of both films, Warner Bros., the co-chiefs of which I profiled in our Oscars Issue — but it will mean that the precursor awards no longer have any bearing on the Oscars itself. Indeed, no film has ever lost with the extensive portfolio of precursors that One Battle has collected.
In our annual “Who Will Win vs. Who Should Win” feature, THR’s chief film critic David Rooney makes the case for what/who he feels should win in the major categories, and I provide the rationale for what/who I predict will win. I encourage you to check out that — and the other content that I produced for our Oscars Issue, including my oral history of the crazy COVID Oscars that took place five years ago (in which Chadwick Boseman’s widow shares the speech that she intended to give before he was upset by Anthony Hopkins); the conclusions of my “investigation” into which of his two Oscars Sean Penn gave away to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy; and this year’s Brutally Honest Oscars Ballot featuring the candid voting rationale of a member of the Academy’s documentary branch.
In recent days, I’ve also gotten some inside information about the plans for Sunday’s ceremony from the Academy’s president and CEO and the telecast’s producers, which I encourage you to check out. And I hope you will also make time to watch Hollywood & The Oscars: Still Golden?, a documentary about the Oscars for which I was interviewed, and which I have already watched and found quite well done, when it airs on CNN tonight at 7 p.m. PT.
Whatever happens on Sunday, I thank you for following along this season, hope you’ll check out all of THR’s coverage on the big night and look forward to sharing with you my first Emmys forecast soon!
PLEASE REMEMBER: Scott’s forecasts do not necessarily reflect his personal preferences. His aim is not to advocate for what he thinks the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to project what they will do. He arrives at his projections by screening the films that are in contention, analyzing their campaigns, constantly checking-in with voters and studying relevant history and stats.
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Warner Bros. Projected Order of Finish
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson, Sara Murphy and Adam Somner
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler, Zinzi Coogler and Sev Ohanian
3. Hamnet (Focus) — Nicolas Gonda, Pippa Harris, Liza Marshall, Sam Mendes and Steven Spielberg — podcast (Spielberg)
4. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berensten Ottmar
5. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein, Eli Bush, Timothée Chalamet, Anthony Katagas and Josh Safdie — podcast (Chalamet)
6. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Michael Heimler, Will Janowitz, Marissa McMahon, Ashley Schlaifer and Teddy Schwarzman
7. Frankenstein (Netflix) — J. Miles Dale, Guillermo del Toro and Scott Stuber — podcast 1, 2 and 3 (del Toro)
8. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Emilie Lesclaux
9. Bugonia (Focus) — Ed Guiney, Lars Knudsen, Yorgos Lanthimos, Andrew Lowe and Emma Stone — podcast (Stone)
10. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Jerry Bruckheimer, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski, Chad Oman and Brad Pitt — podcast (Bruckheimer) -
Best Director
Image Credit: Warner Bros./Courtesy Everett Collection -
Best Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Projected Order of Finish
1. Michael B. Jordan for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast
2. Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme (A24) — podcast
3. Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
4. Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent (Neon) — podcast
5. Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon (Sony Classics) — podcast -
Best Actress
Image Credit: Agata Grzybowska/Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection -
Best Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures Projected Order of Finish
1. Sean Penn for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast
2. Stellan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value (Neon) — podcast
3. Delroy Lindo for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast
4. Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast
5. Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast -
Best Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Quantrell Colbert/Warner Bros. -
Best Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Projected Order of Finish
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
2. Hamnet (Focus) — Maggie O’Farrell & Chloé Zhao — podcast (Zhao)
3. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
4. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Guillermo del Toro — podcast 1, 2 and 3
5. Bugonia (Focus) — Will Tracy -
Best Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Projected Order of Finish
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
2. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt — podcast (Trier)
3. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
4. Blue Moon (Sony Classics) — Robert Kaplow
5. It Was Just an Accident (Neon) — Jafar Panahi — podcast -
Best International Feature
Image Credit: Neon/Courtesy Everett Collection Projected Order of Finish
1. Norway — Sentimental Value (Neon)
2. Brazil — The Secret Agent (Neon)
3. Tunisia — The Voice of Hind Rajab (Willa)
4. France — It Was Just an Accident (Neon)
5. Spain — Sirāt (Neon) -
Best Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Netflix Projected Order of Finish
1. The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix) — Sam Bisbee, Geeta Gandbhir, Nikon Kwantu and Alisa Payne
2. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (Kino Lorber) — David Borenstein, Helle Faber, Alžběta Karásková and Pavel Talankin
3. The Alabama Solution (HBO) — Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
4. Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple) — Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, Ryan White and Stef Willen
5. Cutting Through Rocks (still seeking U.S. distribution) — Mohammadreza Eyni and Sara Khaki -
Best Animated Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix Projected Order of Finish
1. KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) — Chris Appelhans, Maggie Kang and Michelle L.M. Wong
2. Zootopia 2 (Disney) — Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino
3. Arco (Neon) — Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman — podcast (Portman)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS) — Liane-Cho Han, Henri Magalon, Nidia Santiago and Maïlys Vallade
5. Elio (Disney/Pixar) — Mary Alice Drumm, Adrian Molina, Madeline Sharafian and Domee Shi -
Best Casting
Image Credit: Warner Bros. Projected Order of Finish
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
3. Marty Supreme (A24) — Jennifer Venditti
4. The Secret Agent (Neon) — Gabriel Domingues
5. Hamnet (Focus) — Nina Gold -
Best Cinematography
Image Credit: Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures Projected Order of Finish
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Michael Bauman
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw
3. Train Dreams (Netflix) — Adolpho Veloso
4. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Dan Laustsen
5. Marty Supreme (A24) — Darius Khondji -
Best Costume Design
Image Credit: Ken Woroner/Netflix Projected Order of Finish
1. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Kate Hawley
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ruth E. Carter — podcast
3. Hamnet (Focus) — Malgosia Turzanska
4. Marty Supreme (A24) — Miyako Bellizzi
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Deborah L. Scott -
Best Film Editing
Image Credit: Warner Bros. Projected Order of Finish
1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Andy Jurgensen
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Michael Shawver
3. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Stephen Mirrione
4. Sentimental Value (Neon) — Olivier Bugge Coutté
5. Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie -
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Ken Woroner/Netflix Projected Order of Finish
1. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Cliona Furey, Mike Hill and Jordan Samuel
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
3. The Smashing Machine (A24) — Glen Griffin, Kazu Hiro and Bjoern Rehbein
4. Kokuho (GKIDS) — Naomi Hibino, Tadashi Nishimatsu and Kyoko Toyokawa
5. The Ugly Stepsister (IFC/Shudder) — Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg -
Best Original Score
Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Projected Order of Finish
1. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson
2. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Johnny Greenwood
3. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
4. Hamnet (Focus) — Max Richter
5. Bugonia (Focus) — Jerskin Fendrix -
Best Original Song
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix Projected Order of Finish
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) — EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick — listen — podcast (EJAE)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson — listen
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass) — Diane Warren — listen — podcast
4. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Netflix) — Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner — listen
5. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi! (still seeking U.S. distribution) — Nicholas Pike — listen -
Best Production Design
Image Credit: Ken Woroner/Netflix Projected Order of Finish
1. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne
3. Marty Supreme (A24) — Jack Fisk and Adam Willis — podcast (Fisk)
4. Hamnet (Focus) — Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton
5. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Anthony Carlino and Florencia Martin -
Best Sound
Image Credit: Scott Garfield/Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures/Apple Original Films Projected Nominees
1. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Gareth John, Al Nelson, Juan Peralta, Gary Rizzo and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Steve Boeddeker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pachecho, Brandon Proctor and Chris Welcker
3. Sirāt (Neon) — Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas and Amanda Villavieja
4. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
5. Frankenstein (Netflix) — Greg Chapman, Christian Cooke, Nelson Ferreira, Nathan Robitaille and Brad Zoern -
Best Visual Effects
Image Credit: 20th Century Studios Projected Order of Finish
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Joe Letteri and Eric Saindon
2. Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Donnie Dean, Espen Nordahl, Michael Ralla and Guido Wolter
3. F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Nicolas Chevalier, Keith Dawson, Robert Harrington and Ryan Tudhope
4. Jurassic World Rebirth (Universal) — Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, Neil Corbould and David Vickery
5. The Lost Bus (Apple) — Russell Bowen, Brandon K. McLaughlin, Charlie Noble and David Zaretti -
Best Animated Short
Image Credit: National Film Board of Canada/Courtesy Everett Collection Projected Order of Finish
1. The Girl Who Cried Pearls — Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
2. Butterfly — Ron dyens and Florence Miailhe
3. Forevergreen — Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
4. Retirement Plan — Andrew Freedman and John Kelly
5. The Three Sisters — Konstantin Bronzit -
Best Documentary Short
Image Credit: Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection Projected Order of Finish
1. All the Empty Rooms — Conall Jones and Joshua Seftel — podcast (Seftel)
2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud — Juan Arredondo and Craig Renaud
3. The Devil Is Busy — Geeta Gandbhir and Christalyn Hampton
4. Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” — Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins — podcast (Nevins)
5. Perfectly a Strangeness — Alison McAlpine -
Best Live Action Short
Image Credit: Netflix Projected Order of Finish
1. The Singers — Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
2. Two People Exchanging Saliva — Natalie Musteata and Alexandre Singh
3. A Friend of Dorothy — James Dean and Lee Knight
4. Butcher’s Stain — Oron Caspi and Meyer Levinson-Blount
5. Jane Austen’s Period Drama — Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
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