No one had a worse time on the market than Rasheed Walker this free agency

So, new Carolina Panthers left tackle Rasheed Walker didn’t get the number that NFL analysts thought, or that agents who represent tackles thought he would. As recently as yesterday, an agent with a top-100 offensive lineman in the upcoming draft class told me he believed that Walker would get around the Dan Moore Jr. average per year ($20.5 million), despite the market actually being a little less needy for left tackles than usual. He admitted that Walker being on the market on Thursday, a day after the new league year started, probably meant that he was going to have to take a one- or two-year deal, but didn’t think the APY was going to be an issue.

It turns out…the APY was very much an issue. On the consensus free agent board, which looked at 29 different lists online, Rasheed Walker was ranked as the 6th-overall free agent in the entire class, after franchise tags were dished out. Among the top 36 free agents in the class, Walker finished with the worst APY, $10 million, besides quarterback Kyler Murray (who functionally is getting paid by the Arizona Cardinals this year, so he just took a minimum contract, the only money that won’t offset the Cardinals’ losses, to play with the Minnesota Vikings).

Online, projections for Walker hovered around the four-year, $82 million range, the same figure that Moore got last offseason after leading the NFL in sacks allowed in 2024. To those who represented players, that was the new baseline for the price of a true starting tackle coming off a rookie contract moving forward.

As we explained in our Day 1 recap, though, the NFL pushed back hard on the pricing of off-ball linebackers and cornerbacks, the other positions besides offensive tackle that saw the biggest gains in 2025. Walker was the only real opportunity for the league’s teams to push back against the young starting tackle market this free agency cycle, and they pushed hard enough that Walker ended up signing for 12 percent of the total money, at 49 percent of the APY, of the Moore deal.

By far, this is the biggest surprise of the free agency cycle.

From a Packers compensatory pick standpoint, the Moore contract would have gotten Walker just over the finish line for a third-round pick in 2027. At $10 million APY, Green Bay is looking at a sixth-round pick that can maybe push up to a fifth-round pick with playing time.