An early test for Democrats’ anti-ICE messaging: From the Politics Desk
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In today’s edition, Bridget Bowman dives into a key Democratic messaging battle in Illinois ahead of tomorrow’s primary. Plus, Ben Kamisar breaks down some fresh numbers from our latest NBC News poll related to Israel.
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— Adam Wollner
An early test for Democrats’ anti-ICE messaging
By Bridget Bowman
Anti-ICE messaging has dominated the final stretch of the contentious open Democratic primary for Senate in Illinois. Two-thirds of the TV ads in the last month of the race have mentioned ICE, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
It’s been prevalent elsewhere too as the midterm election cycle kicks into gear: Nearly a quarter of all TV ads from Democratic campaigns across the country in the last month have referenced the immigration agency.
Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Rep. Robin Kelly have each staked out slightly different positions on the agency in the race to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin. Krishnamoorthi has spoken of reforms and called to abolish “Trump’s ICE.” Stratton has taken a simpler “abolish ICE” line. And Kelly says she wants to “dismantle” ICE.
The focus on ICE comes amid broad pushback on the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown following enforcement surges in cities including Chicago, Los Angeles and Minneapolis. The campaign is also an early test of whether the issue has staying power, even as federal agents draw down some operations. Democrats say it does.
“Fighting ICE has become synonymous with opposing and fighting back against Trump,” said Brandon Davis, a Democratic consultant who worked on Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s successful 2023 campaign.
What the candidates are saying: Krishnamoorthi told NBC News in an interview that his closing message ahead of tomorrow’s primary came after facing attacks from his chief opponent, Stratton, for accepting campaign donations from a top executive at Palantir, a software company and ICE contractor.
“One big fact that she fails to mention is that I’m an immigrant. I’m the only immigrant in this race,” Krishnamoorthi said, later adding: “When ICE terrorizes a community, when it racially profiles brown people, I say, ‘There but for the grace of God, go I.’ That could be me.”
Stratton’s first TV ad, which included bleeped-out expletives aimed at the president, also touted her call to “abolish ICE.” Stratton noted in an interview that the community was still reeling from the enforcement surge in the Chicago area last year, known as Operation Midway Blitz, during which agents shot two people and roughly 1,600 people were arrested.
“The fear that people have has not left just because one day they packed up and said, ‘OK, Operation Midway Blitz, we’re going to put a pause on it,’” Stratton said. “People are still scared and they’re still worried.”
Kelly said in an interview that Operation Midway Blitz affected her congressional district, which stretches from Chicago’s South Side into rural parts of the state. In one of the incidents, a helicopter landed on an apartment building and dozens of immigrants were arrested.
“It was absolutely horrific,” Kelly said. One of her first TV ads of the race featured footage of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, the two Minnesotans killed by federal agents in January.
Poll: Israel’s standing plummets among Democrats, fueling primaries on the left
By Ben Kamisar
American voters’ feelings on Israel and the Palestinian territories have shifted dramatically in recent years, in a sea change that is transforming the Democratic Party.
A new NBC News poll underscores the depths of the shift. More registered voters view Israel negatively than positively, a change from a few years ago. The change has been especially pronounced among independents and Democrats, fueling divided congressional primaries in 2026 and potentially shaping the party’s 2028 presidential contest.
When asked whether their sympathies lie more with Israelis or Palestinians, 40% of registered voters say they side more with the Israelis, while 39% choose the Palestinians. The split stood at 45% for Israelis and 13% for Palestinians when NBC News asked the question more than a decade ago, in November 2013.
But while two-thirds of Republicans side with the Israelis, similar to 2013, two-thirds of Democrats now side with the Palestinians.
The data also outlines major changes in how many of those groups view Israel and a Palestinian state generally. Now, almost 60% of Democrats and almost 50% of independents view Israel negatively, a change from when NBC News last asked this question in November 2023, shortly after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Those shifts contributed to the plurality negative view on Israel in the latest survey.
Those groups have also shifted toward viewing the Palestinian territories more favorably than they did before.
The poll was conducted from Feb. 27 to March 3, as Israel and the U.S. began their war against Iran but before an attack last week on a Michigan synagogue, which the FBI called a “targeted act of violence against the Jewish community.”
🗞️ Today’s other top stories
- 📝 Iran war update: Military officials have included options in regular war planning for Trump to end the conflict in Iran should he decide to do so, six people familiar with the plans told NBC News. Read more →
- 🛢️ Iran war update, cont.: Trump repeated his call to other nations to help reopen shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, after U.S. allies responded with little enthusiasm to his demands for military support to end the Iranian blockade. Follow live updates →
- 📺 ICYMI: Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on “Meet the Press” yesterday that there’s “a very good chance” gas prices could drop below $3 per gallon by summer, predicting that in “a few more weeks” the U.S. will have “removed the risk” of Iran’s continued threat to global energy supplies. Read more →
- ⚖️In the courts: A federal judge blocked Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent overhaul of the nation’s childhood vaccine schedule. Read more →
- ➡️ Wiles diagnosis: White House chief of staff Susie Wiles said that she was diagnosed with breast cancer in the past week, adding that the cancer was detected “early” and that she was “encouraged by a strong prognosis.” She will continue serving in her role. Read more →
- ⬅️ Heading toward the exit: Gregory Bovino, the U.S. Border Patrol agent who became the face of Trump’s immigration crackdown, will retire at the end of the month. Read more →
- 🇨🇺 Exclusive: Cuban nationals living abroad in places such as Miami will be allowed to invest in the private sector and own businesses in their homeland, the country’s economic czar told NBC News in an interview. Read more →
- 🤔 Texas two-step: Trump told NBC News on Saturday that he will decide whether to endorse Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas GOP primary runoff “over the next week or so.” Read more →
- 🦡 Badger State brawl: Next month’s Wisconsin Supreme Court election hasn’t received as much attention as last year’s Elon Musk-fueled race. But liberals are aiming to expand their majority on the battleground state court and extend their winning streak to four. Read more →
- 🤖 AI boom: A rare source of bipartisanship has broken out in state capitols across the country: reining in data centers. Read more →
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.
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