The goal of this regression-centric space is to tell fantasy football folks which of their borderline fantasy options are running particularly hot or particularly cold, to use a little technical language.
Every week during the regular season I’ll highlight players whose usage and opportunity doesn’t quite match their production. That might look like a running back scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip or a pass catcher putting up big stat lines while working as a rotational player in his offense. It could also look like a pass catcher seeing gobs of air yards and targets without much to show for it. Things of that nature.
👉 Some stats I’ll focus on weekly in the Regression Files: Rush yards over expected, targets per route, air yards, air yards per target, red zone targets, green zone targets, quarterback touchdown rate, and expected touchdowns. A lot of this regression stuff, as you probably know, comes down to touchdowns — specifically, predicting touchdowns (or lack thereof).
I’ll (mostly) ignore every-week fantasy options who you’re going to play whether they’re running hot or cold, or somewhere in between. My goal is to make this column as actionable as possible for all fantasy formats. Telling you to keep playing Jahmyr Gibbs during a cold streak doesn’t strike me as particularly actionable.
Let’s start today with a close look at total team air yards. I know it’s fun to pretend air yards don’t really matter, but they do, and measuring air yards can tell us who is and who is not getting the kind of valuable opportunities that (sometimes) produce tangible fantasy points.
Total Team Air Yards Per Game
Rams: 310
Jaguars: 295
Chargers: 289
Cowboys: 273
Giants: 272
Saints: 258
Colts: 257
Broncos: 256
Chiefs: 255
49ers: 245
◆ That Puka Nacua and Davante Adams eat up 71 percent of the Rams’ air yards means no one else can benefit from this sort of opportunity without the random splash play. With Nacua sidelined in Week 7, Adams saw 28 percent of the team’s air yards while rookie TE Terrance Ferguson was second with a 24 percent air yards share. That might be something to file away if Nacua remains sidelined following LA’s bye week.
◆ It looks to be Parker Washington, not Travis Hunter, who would profile as the Jags’ air yards eater if Brian Thomas misses time with the mystery injury he suffered in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s loss to the Rams. Washington led Jacksonville with 38 percent of the team’s air yards against LA while Hunter saw 21 percent. Washington could have not-so-sneaky upside if he functions as Trevor Lawrence’s downfield guy. Hunter was, however, targeted on 27 percent of his routes in Week 7, a big jump over his 19 percent rate from Week 1-6.
◆ Troy Franklin has crashed Courtland Sutton’s air yards party in the Denver offense. Franklin since Week 4 leads the Broncos in air yards (33 percent) while Sutton has seen a 25 percent air yards share. It’s a long way from the 35-38 percent air yards share Sutton usually sees from Bo Nix. Franklin has been miserable in converting those air yards into actual yards because he’s a pretty bad receiver who can’t separate. Still, it could be a problem for Sutton as a weekly top-20 option if Franklin continues in this (very) annoying role.
◆ The Giants’ air yards data requires a little context. New York is 27th in pass rate over expected since the Jaxson Dart Vibes Revolution and the team is averaging 241 air yards per game. That’s not a massive split, but it’s enough to question whether anyone can consistently get home for fantasy purposes besides Wan’Dale Robinson.
◆ The world-beating Colts making this top-10 list was a surprise. I figured they wouldn’t be in position to pile up the air yards since they beat everyone by 100. It’s indicative of a Shane Steichen offense that has been consistently aggressive though. Indy is fifth in early-down neutral pass rate and 15th in pass rate over expected this season. They aren’t hiding Danny Dimes, who obviously did nothing wrong in New York. The team’s air yards numbers should make us quite bullish on Alec Pierce, Dimes’ only real downfield threat. On Sunday against the Chargers, Pierce compiled a ludicrous 247 air yards, leading the NFL. Pierce is now averaging 107 air yards per game, an elite number. His 19.7 air yards per target means Pierce should remain a high-variance weekly play. But his full-time role in the Colts offense and his air yards domination make him a decent bet to be an important — if sometimes frustrating — fantasy player in the season’s second half. He happens to be good at what he does.
◆ It was nice — as a George Pickens drafter — to see CeeDee Lamb return to game action and not totally ice out Pickens, as we saw in the season’s first couple weeks. Pickens in Week 7 against the Commanders led the team in air yards (108) and had six targets to seven for Lamb. When opposing secondaries focus on shutting down Lamb in the intermediate areas, Pickens should get a chance to blow it open down the field. We know two things about Pickens: He’s a little weird and he devours air yards.
◆ Chris Olave has ended up in this space a few times this season. He was a Regression Files mainstay last year too. The Reddit folks might riot if I use Olave as the Regression Files cover guy again. I wouldn’t blame them. But the numbers are the numbers, and only four wideouts have more air yards this season than Olave, one of the few guys averaging around 100 air yards per week (98.5, to be precise). When the spreadsheets show you a guy seeing that many air yards and being targeted on nearly 30 percent of his pass routes, you have no choice but to pay attention and keep writing about him for Rotoworld. In Week 7 we got a glimpse of what it looks like when those sweet, sweet air yards cash: Olave put 98 yards and two scores on the Bears defense. His 140 air yards ranked tenth on the week.
Total Air Yards Per Game
Packers: 216
Texans: 211
Ravens: 206
Lions: 188
Steelers: 168
◆ DK Metcalf got away with it bigly for a while. He caught a touchdown in four straight games, papering over some otherwise pedestrian stat lines in a Pittsburgh pass offense predicated on constant check downs. Metcalf is seeing almost nothing down the field; the Steelers have 17 targets over more than 20 yards this season, half the number of the Cowboys. Though Metcalf’s 23 percent targets per route should keep him alive in the weekly top-30 conversation, he’s going to remain disturbingly touchdown-reliant in a Steelers offense producing precious few air yards.
◆ The reason you have a hangover every Monday morning after playing one or more Green Bay pass catchers is because there aren’t a lot of air yards to go around, and no one — maybe by design — has taken command as Jordan Love’s guy. Romeo Doubs leads the Packers with a 37 percent target share, but that comes out to a ho-hum 80 air yards per game. Matthew Golden’s air yards per target (13.5) should make him a somewhat reliable wideout option, though he’ll need to do that thing where a receiver commands targets before it pays off. Golden has seen a target on just 17 percent of his routes this season. This follows a college career in which Golden was never a consistent commander of targets.
◆ Not pictured here: The Eagles, who, quite stunningly, rank 13th overall in air yards through Week 7. It’s quite the departure from the league-low air yards Philly posted in 2024. The Eagles have the NFL’s third highest pass rate over expected over the past three weeks, a fact that might shake the foundation of your worldview. The increase in passing — and air yards — has turned DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown into giga-upside weekly options after starting the season as the two most depressing selections in fantasy. Philadelphia during this pass-heavy phase ranks third in overall air yards. Both Brown and Smith are among the top eight air yards eaters over those three glorious weeks. If this keeps up — and there’s reason to believe it will with (washed?) Saquon Barkley showing zero juice on the ground — Smith and Brown profile as WR1 options with as much upside as anyone in the game. The past few weeks might just be sustainable for our passive-aggressive king and the Slim Reaper.
◆ A note on the Cardinals, whose passing offense is far friendlier for fantasy purposes (and for actually winning football games) with Jacoby Brissett under center. Arizona is third in air yards and third in actual passing yards over Brissett’s two starts. The Cards are averaging an unholy 333 air yards per game with Brissett at the helm. They were averaging 190 air yards with Kyler Murray at QB. Brissett makes Trey McBride a league winner and Marvin Harrison Jr. a weekly top-12 option. Something to keep in mind, though I suppose the team is pot-committed to Murray because he made some cool plays in college.
📈 Positive Regression Candidates
Bo Nix (DEN)
It’s not often I write up a positive regression guy a week after he puts up 37 fantasy points, but when I do, I notice the guy is running ice cold in the green zone (inside the ten yard line).
So it is with Nix, who last week had a typically inefficient outing against the Giants and was saved by drop back volume and two rushing scores in a fourth quarter willed to existence by the collective soul of fantasy managers the world over. Even with the absurd Week 7 output, Nix should probably have more passing scores near the end zone.
Nix’s 16 inside-the-ten attempts rank fourth among all quarterbacks while his four inside-the-ten touchdown throws ranks 23rd. The green zone TDs should come to fruition at some point: Denver ranks 11th in pass rate over expected inside the ten. Since Week 4, they’re the fifth pass heaviest team inside the ten yard line. Nix might eventually throw a few short-area scores.
Chimere Dike (TEN)
The Titans pulled the ripcord of the Tyler Lockett Experience this week when the aged veteran asked for his release and the team tripped over itself to grant said release, then have a 24-hour rager in the front office.
Cam Ward never seemed all that interested in throwing to Lockett, who saw a target on just 13 percent of his routes through Week 7. His route participation dwindled, and the end of the Brian Callahan era in Tennessee all but ended the Lockett charade.
Dike in Week 7 ran a route on two-thirds of Ward’s drop backs and was targeted on 15 percent of those routes. It amounted to four catches, 70 yards, and a touchdown against the Patriots, most of that production coming on a long first half score. Dike’s three first-read targets against New England ranked second on the team, trailing Elic Ayomanor’s four first-read looks. The Titans have been intentional in getting the football into Dike’s hands. Get this: Only six receivers have more designed targets this season (8) than Dike, who sports a meager 40 percent route rate on the season.
We can’t be too bullish on anyone attached to this moribund Tennessee offense. The Titans still stink. But Dike profiles as the kind of deep-league option who will have some weekly upside juice to squeeze. I wouldn’t be stunned if Ward was ready and willing to let it rip with Dike more involved. Dike, after all, entered the league with a 93rd percentile speed score and an 89th percentile catch radius. He looks the part.
Jimmy Horn (CAR)
I’m trying to be early on Horn both because my ego demands it and because it could be cool to outsmart the freaks in my 14-team leagues. Horn’s playing time and usage has ticked up just enough in recent weeks to suggest the Panthers might be ready to deploy him in a more fantasy-friendly role.
Horn, a sixth-round pick from Colorado, has been targeted on a heady 33 percent of his pass routes over his three active games (Week 5-7). He’s run a palty 27 percent of the team’s routes over that span but there is a concerted effor to get Horn the ball when he’s on the field. That includes four rushing attempts over those three games. Sometimes that means something. We should pay attention, though Jalen Coker’s return to action could complicate things for Horn.
It wouldn’t be the first time Horn proved to be a target commander. At USF — before he transferred to the University of Deion — Horn was targeted on 24.5 percent of his routes and had a yards per route rate of well above two. That’s usually a good sign of a productive player.
📉 Negative Regression Candidates
Jordan Love (GB)
You’re still starting Love in 12-team leagues — unless you’re stacked at QB — but you should know just how hot Love is running where it counts the most. Six of his seven inside-the-ten attempts have gone for touchdowns this year. Love is good. I’m not sure he’s that good though. Love over his past two games has a touchdown rate north of 8 percent. That’s quite high.
The Packers don’t seem to have any plans to establish the pass inside the ten. They rank 25th in pass rate over expected in that part of the field, and over the past three weeks the Packers are 24 percent below their expected pass rate inside the ten. It’s why Josh Jacobs is basically guaranteed two touchdowns every single week for the rest of time.
Daniel Bellinger (NYG)
Week 7 was cool for Bellinger, who got wide open behind the Denver secondary and scored a long touchdown on a rope from Jaxson Dart. He ended up with three grabs for 88 yards and that first quarter touchdown. Not bad for the TE2 on his own team.
Though the Giants are using more two tight end sets with Dart under center, Bellinger’s route participation was held at 40 percent in Week 7. I don’t want to dismiss his 27 percent targets per route rate, better than fellow TE Theo Johnson, who lucked into a long touchdown on a tipped pass against the Broncos.
Still, Bellinger wouldn’t be fantasy viable unless Johnson missed time. Maybe you knew that already.
Tyrone Tracy (NYG)
Those who know me well know I am first and foremost a film grinder (I’m not). I happened to cover last week’s Giants-Broncos game for Rotoworld and wanted (needed) to note Tracy’s spicy little Week 7 stat line was more than a little deceiving.
Tracy posted 46 rush yards and a touchdown. Thirty-one of those yards and the touchdown came on a second half run in which Tracy ran through a Cybertruck-sized hole and cruised untouched into the end zone. I’m fairly confident I could have gained ten yards on the play. Though Tracy might see 6-8 carries a game in a run-first Giants offense, he’s not seeing any inside-the-five action and running precious few pass routes behind lead back Cam Skattebo.
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