2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks for Sweet 16, Elite Eight: Contenders, upsets, more

After fans filled out brackets in anticipation of the NCAA Tournament, the first weekend tipped off with plenty unpredictable results. After some big-time upsets leading up to the Sweet 16, it is time to reevaluate the field of contenders.

While no bracket is ever perfect, maximizing the chances to predict all the results of the second weekend is a much simpler task than the opening rounds. Meanwhile, the co-worker or family member who picks based on the mascots or colors is likely already in the lead.

After watching all the first and second round games, there are new datapoints from every matchup to pull from in analysis. Here are my best projections for the chaos of Sweet 16 and Elite Eight matchups as March Madness continues to sweep the nation.

Sweet 16

East (Washington DC)
1 Duke vs. 5 St. John’s
3 Michigan State vs. 2 UConn

South (Houston)
9 Iowa vs. 4 Nebraska
3 Illinois vs. 2 Houston

West (San Jose)
1 Arizona vs. 4 Arkansas
11 Texas vs. 2 Purdue

Midwest (Chicago)
1 Michigan vs. 4 Alabama
6 Tennessee vs. 2 Iowa State

Three of the four 1-seed teams remain in the field entering the second weekend. They each face intriguing challenges during the Sweet 16, with Arizona goes head-to-head with a red hot Darius Acuff leading Arkansas’ backcourt. Of the two unexpected teams in the mix, Iowa likely enters with the best chance to advance, going up against a conference foe they beat once in the regular season.

Elite Eight

East (Washington DC)
1 Duke vs. 2 UConn

South (Houston)
9 Iowa vs. 2 Houston

West (San Jose)
4 Arkansas vs. 2 Purdue

Midwest (Chicago)
1 Michigan vs. 2 Iowa State

A pair of 1-vs.-2 matchups could headline the Elite Eight in this scenario, with a third potential matchup on the table in the West Region. Duke and Michigan remain two of the hottest teams in college basketball, and Iowa State’s uncertainty with Joshua Jefferson’s injury could prove a significant setback. Meanwhile, Houston will play in its hometown, and Arkansas has another opportunity to build hype around its star player and the big-time offensive performances he provides.