How the Iran war is expected to affect US prices, from gas to flights | Business

Fertilizer. Phones and laptops. Flights. These are just some of the products made from or powered by crucial materials that ship through the strait of Hormuz, which still remains effectively closed due to the US-Israel war on Iran.

As the war approaches its fifth week, global oil shortages are forcing countries to take severe measures to save their reserves as Iran continues to block oil shipments.

Even if a deal to end the conflict is reached soon, unwinding the damage will take months.

US gas prices have reached their highest level in years, but the change in oil prices aren’t just impacting drivers: Oil is used to power the supply chain, from the machines that manufacture a cell phone to the diesel that powers a truck carrying it to a store.

The price increases come as many Americans are already strained by rising housing costs, grocery bills, and electricity statements. A Gallup poll released last week found that a third of Americans skipped meals and forewent other needs to afford their healthcare.

Here’s how the conflict with Iran is expected to affect prices.

Oil and gas

The average cost of gas in the US has jumped about 30% over the last month, with the national average hitting $3.97, the highest since 2023.

But diesel, which fuels many of the trucks that transport goods across the nation, has increased even further – by about 50%, or about $1.69 more than it did a year ago, according to data from AAA.

Higher diesel costs could soon affect transportation costs and, in turn, the cost of groceries as roughly 85% of agricultural goods are transported by trucks.

Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive policy group, said that the impact of oil and gas shortages on the supply chain can be categorized as first-order effects or second-order effects.

First-order effects are the direct impacts of the conflict, and for most consumers, this means higher prices at the gas pump.

Second-order effects are indirect and much broader, with potential impacts to the price of crops, semiconductor chips and medical devices that could eventually stream down to consumers.

“It’s just a matter of when they work their way through the supply chains,” Jacquez said. “Maybe it’s on next month’s orders, or maybe next week’s orders, or whatever it may be. But eventually some of these increases we’ve seen are going to get passed through, if they get large enough.”

Fertilizer

Farmers in particular have said they are struggling as the spring growing season approaches, facing higher fertilizer costs and falling commodity prices.

A third of global urea trade, which is a solid nitrogen fertilizer, passes through the Middle East region, with about 20% of imported fertilizer to the US coming specifically from Qatar.

Nitrogen fertilizer is critical to grow corn, which is cultivated by about 500,000 farmers in the US, according to the National Corn Growers Association.

The war’s impact on farmers has caught the attention of the White House, which has promised the US economy wouldn’t be disrupted “very much at all” by supply issues.

Donald Trump has “a plan for every corner of the disruption, from fertilizer to getting fuel to the west coast”, Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, said in an interview with CNBC last week.

Hassett said the White House has been seeking alternative sources of fertilizer from around the world, and they have successfully found “a lot of it”.

“We’ve been all over the fertilizer problem,” he said. “I’m not saying that we can eliminate what disruption there is so far, but we can minimize it.”

Helium

The conflict has disrupted the global helium supply after Iranian attacks in Qatar, the second-largest producer of helium after the United States. The country was forced to halt production at its Ras Laffan industrial complex, which supplies about 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas.

Helium is a key import that is used in aerospace, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and in making semiconductor chips that are used to power AI.

Jet fuel

Increases in oil prices could also result in higher airfare and shipping costs, Jacquez said.

The price of jet fuel has doubled since the start of the war, according to the International Air Transport Association,

United Airlines announced last Friday it would have to cut flights due to the surging cost of fuel.

“The reality is, jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks. If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11bn in annual expense just for jet fuel,” Scott Kirby, the CEO of United, said in a statement. “For perspective, in United’s best year ever, we made less than $5B.”

The average airfare for most airlines – spanning both domestic and international trips, as well as tickets bought last-minute and in advance – were up compared to the same period last year, according to an analysis at Deutsche Bank.

Mortgage rates

Just as US mortgage were starting to fall in February, giving American home buyers and sellers some relief in the housing market, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked up to its highest level in months last week, reaching 6.22%.

Mortgage rates are closely tied to the overall state of the economy because they are based on interest rates, which are determined by the US Federal Reserve. Last week, the Fed opted to leave rates unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75% citing uncertainty in the economy, particularly with conflict in the Middle East.

“Rising mortgage rates are a major barrier to what should otherwise be a very favorable spring homebuying season,” said Joel Berner, a senior economist at Realtor.com. “Ultimately, the current upward pressure on mortgage rates, stemming from the war and inflation fears, serves as the primary barrier preventing the spring housing market from capitalizing on otherwise favorable inventory and price conditions.”