After one of the least competitive weeks of football in recent memory, we’re all searching for some drama. Only one game in Week 8 was decided by fewer than 10 points, as the Jets upset the Bengals 39-38. The average margin of victory was 18.46 points. We knew the risks going into the week, given that eight different games had a spread of at least six points. But let’s hope the recent stratification of the league doesn’t further zap the excitement of a proper witching hour or classic prime-time game.
As the quality of leaguewide defense continues to struggle, the story of Week 9 is high totals. There are seven totals of at least 48 points. The Jets, Browns, Buccaneers, and Eagles have bye weeks, leaving us with 14 matchups.
Here are my thoughts on the Week 9 slate, starting with the bets I’ve made already. (All lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.)
The Favorite Five
I’ll be highlighting my favorite five picks each week throughout the season, which will serve as a preview for my picks on The Ringer 107—a season-long contest between The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. I’ll be partnering with Cousin Sal to make the Gambling Show’s Friday picks. Through eight weeks, this column is 34-31 overall and 18-22 on the Favorite Five.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (–5.5)
Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said he feels “really good” about Michael Penix Jr. heading into Week 9. Given how awful Kirk Cousins looked in Week 8, the Falcons need their second-year quarterback back. The problem is that Penix’s return won’t necessarily be the elixir to fix the Falcons’ offensive struggles from the past two weeks. The Patriots have an elite run defense, and that will take the Falcons out of their preferred offensive cadence. New England has the league’s third-best run defense, and Atlanta has not been efficient when forced into dropbacks. The Falcons are 24th in EPA per dropback on late downs.
The Patriots defense has had vulnerabilities in the middle of the field, and their linebackers still can’t really cover in space. Atlanta could use Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson to exploit this, but I remain dubious they’ll actually be able to take advantage. It’s hard to trust many of New England’s metrics because of how weak its opposing competition has been. That said, I do think the Pats will be able to hold up in the run game, as their numbers suggest.
Drake Maye’s deep passing has been incredible to watch and a major boost to this offense, but Atlanta is a difficult matchup in that regard. Only the Packers have allowed fewer 20-plus-yard plays this season. The Falcons also have the third-lowest explosive play rate allowed on passes at least 10 yards downfield. New England has benefited from playing while ahead against bad defenses all year. That won’t be the case on Sunday.
Verdict: Lean Falcons +5.5, bet under 45.5
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
Joe Flacco popped up on the injury report and is listed as questionable for Sunday. Zac Taylor said on Wednesday that it’s 50/50 whether Flacco will play. I bet the over at 51.5 on Monday morning, assuming Flacco would be fine, and for the sake of that bet, I would much prefer that he start over our old friend Jake Browning.
There are a lot of especially bad defenses this year, and these two (plus Dallas) are in my bottom three. The Bengals defense is very bad with Trey Hendrickson in, but generationally bad without him. He left the Jets game early on Sunday after re-aggravating his hip injury. His absence was felt when the Jets scored 39 points. Hendrickson didn’t practice on Wednesday, and while he’s listed as day-to-day, it would surprise me if he played on Sunday.
Chicago’s rushing offense has really improved in the three games since the bye week, and that’s meaningful in a game vs. the Bengals. Cincinnati is bottom four in EPA per rush allowed, and the Bears have leaped up the rushing efficiency ranks. The offensive line has really come together, and they should reap the rewards of that in Week 9.
Chicago’s EPA/Rush Rank
The Bears defense enters Week 9 a perfectly respectable 19th in EPA per play allowed, but the absurd number of turnovers forced is skewing the statistics. If you remove turnovers entirely from the sample, Chicago is actually 30th in EPA per play allowed. (Cincinnati and Dallas are the only teams worse.)
The Bears’ entire secondary is injured, and Flacco would have no problems playing catch with Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase against the Chicago backups. Points will be aplenty; I’d just wait to see if Flacco can play first.
Verdict: Bet over 50.5
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)
Mike Tomlin has been the Pittsburgh coach since 2007, and he’s never had a defense perform this poorly. His defense is allowing 2.37 points per drive, the worst of any of his 19 seasons. Now that starting safety DeShon Elliott is headed to the injured reserve, the Steelers defense has to face the league’s best offense. In the past, it would have been profitable to bet on Tomlin-coached teams coming off a loss as an underdog at home. This is the third straight home game for the Steelers and, in theory, an excellent spot to bet them. But all great runs must come to an end, and the Steelers’ saga of voodoo magic, turnovers, and havoc looks like it has finally run its course.
Shane Steichen had a ton of success against Tomlin defenses in the past two meetings in Indianapolis. He coached Gardner Minshew to 30 points against the Steelers in 2023 and then a combination of Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco to 27 points last year. And now Steichen has an offense operating at historic efficiency levels. The Colts probably won’t keep up this pace, but it’s hard to imagine that this Pittsburgh defense will be the one to finally grind the Colts to a halt. Indianapolis is first in yards per drive, and the Steelers are allowing the most yards per drive in the NFL. Short of some weird turnovers or red zone inefficiency, the Colts are going to score. Despite Jonathan Taylor’s historic statistical season, the Colts are actually second in pass rate over expectation. They’re using the throw to set up the run, and it’s an offense I want to continue betting on.
Verdict: Bet Colts –3
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (+2.5)
When I dig into statistics throughout the week for this column, I always like to look at how a passing offense performs when a team knows that they have to pass. I initially went into my research trying to figure out where Drake Maye and Jordan Love ranked in EPA per dropback on third and fourth downs with 5-plus yards to go. Both quarterbacks grade out well, but that wasn’t the most interesting insight I found.
What I didn’t expect to stumble upon is that the 49ers and Giants are two of the league’s most efficient offenses in these situations. Only the Packers, Bills, and Cowboys are better on a per-dropback basis in obvious passing downs. Kudos to Jaxson Dart for finding third-down success and hitting explosive plays. The Giants had a long touchdown called back by a dubious penalty last week and still had an above-average offensive showing. Since Dart became quarterback, the Giants offense has had real life, and it’s currently a top-half unit by EPA per drive (even without Malik Nabers, though the team will now also be without Cam Skattebo).
There’s a clear path to offense for both of these teams. San Francisco’s offensive stats weren’t good against Houston last week, but it also barely had the ball because the defense couldn’t get off the field. The Giants’ run defense is legitimately terrible, and the 49ers should find rushing success on the ground.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are generating zero pressure without Nick Bosa and Bryce Huff (they’re third to last in pressure rate since Bosa got injured), and that means Dart will have time in the pocket to push the ball down the field.
All of this is to say that I don’t see much of a difference in the quality of these two teams right now. Two pretty good but not fully healthy offenses. Two awful defenses. I’ll take the Giants catching points at home.
Verdict: Bet Giants +2.5
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (–8.5)
Magically, J.J. McCarthy is healthy the moment Carson Wentz can no longer play football. What a coincidence! I generally think highly of Kevin O’Connell, but his handling of this McCarthy injury has been quite peculiar and raises some real speculation about what O’Connell really thinks of his second-year quarterback. Wentz was left out there to take hit after hit and play through an injury, the equivalent of a sacrificial lamb. Now, McCarthy is returning to the lineup behind an offensive line that is still not fully healthy. And he’ll do it on the road against the Lions, who are coming off a bye week.
Vikings left tackle Christian Darrisaw played limited snaps last Thursday, and right tackle Brian O’Neill didn’t play at all. The Vikings do have extra rest for this game, but it’s clear that neither tackle will be 100 percent, even if they both return to the lineup on Sunday. McCarthy’s numbers from his first two starts (before the injury) were quite bad. There are 39 quarterbacks who have played at least 60 snaps this season, and McCarthy is 39th in EPA per play and 36th in success rate.
The line here depends quite heavily on your view of McCarthy. I’m looking to bet against him at every opportunity until he proves me wrong. Even with Detroit’s secondary injuries, the Lions will play aggressively and force McCarthy to make tight-window throws. I’ll pay to find out how that goes for the Vikings offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings’ run defense continues to have real issues. They rank 23rd in EPA per rush allowed and 24th in explosive play rate allowed. If Minnesota falls behind, I fear for McCarthy.
Verdict: Bet Lions –8.5
Thursday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (+7.5)
The Ravens defense is too flawed and Lamar Jackson’s health is too uncertain for me not to be a little skeptical of Baltimore laying more than a touchdown on the road on Thursday. Even before he went down with the hamstring injury against Kansas City in Week 4, Jackson wasn’t exactly operating at peak performance and efficiency. He took a ton of sacks in that Chiefs game and also in the Week 3 loss to Detroit. Derrick Henry and the run offense haven’t been the consistently explosive juggernaut we saw last year, either.
Even though Baltimore is healthier and has an excellent offensive matchup against Miami on Thursday, there are also questions about its defense. They have Pro Bowlers Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton back, but the run stop and pass rush remain a big question mark without Nnamdi Madubuike, who is out for the season. I still think the unit is unable to exploit Miami’s biggest offensive weakness (the offensive line), and thus Miami should be able to move the ball methodically.
Despite all the inconsistency from the Miami offense, it doesn’t grade out all that poorly from a metrics standpoint. The Dolphins had one awful offensive game against the Browns on the road in Week 7, but if you remove that outlier game from the sample, they are actually eighth in EPA per drive.
I understand why the market still loves the Ravens so much, but at some point, they have to prove they can live up to that price. Miami keeps the chains moving and stays inside the number on Thursday night.
Verdict: Bet Dolphins +7.5
The Rest of the Slate
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (–13.5)
Bryce Young was a full participant in practice on Wednesday, so it sounds like the Panthers will have their starting quarterback back in the fold this week. The Panthers were architects of their own demise on Sunday against Buffalo, as Andy Dalton had multiple costly turnovers that helped Buffalo pull away and win the game in blowout fashion.
The Panthers had flashed improved defensive metrics prior to that game, especially against the run. But then James Cook ran for 200 yards, and now I don’t really know what to think about the Panthers defense in general. I still think the secondary and defense are much improved from last year, but Carolina has a very limited offense. I struggle to see them performing well in a game state where they are losing and forced to throw the ball, which is quite likely in this game. The Panthers are 26th in EPA per dropback on third and fourth downs with 5-plus yards to go.
A few weeks ago, Green Bay was –14 against Cincinnati. I don’t care what you think of the Panthers, but there’s no way they can be rated almost as low as that. I was higher on Green Bay than the market the last few weeks, but this price has correctly adjusted upward after the Packers opened at 10.5. Green Bay still has the highest ceiling in the NFC, and I’ve never wavered on it as a top-two team in the NFL. But this price is too steep.
Verdict: Pass
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (–1.5)
Denver’s offense has a much higher floor and is much more consistent week-to-week than the Jekyll-and-Hyde Texans offense. The Broncos also are much more likely to find an explosive play or two, which will be needed in a game where offense will be at a premium. For all his flaws, Bo Nix has the lowest sack rate in the NFL, and Denver is top 10 in explosive play rate. That combination works even if your offense is not consistent on a down-to-down basis.
The line has flipped from Denver to Houston as a small favorite. Patrick Surtain II is out for the Broncos, and on the Houston side, I expect Nico Collins to return from his concussion, which is a pretty big plus for Houston’s offense in this matchup. It’s enough to keep me from betting on Denver but not enough to get me to bet on the Texans.
These are the two best defenses in the NFL metrically, but a total below 40 leaves little room for error. But if I had to bet anything, it’d be the under.
Verdict: Lean under 39.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans (+8.5)
One of the biggest line moves since Monday morning came in this game, and it’s a market move I begrudgingly agree with. Tennessee was +10.5 and has since moved down two points. Even though the Titans are the worst team in the betting markets, the Chargers can’t possibly be rated high enough to lay double digits on the road against anyone.
With that being said, I also don’t have to wager any of my dollars on the Titans. Mike McCoy’s extraordinarily risk-averse decision to punt from the Colts’ 42-yard line on fourth-and-3 while down by 10 in the third quarter was so baffling that it makes you question whether he has any idea what he’s doing.
Verdict: Pass
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (–14.5)
It’s officially time for the Tyler Shough era in New Orleans! For his first NFL game, he’ll be facing a rested Rams defense coming off the bye. And that Rams defense is actually first in the NFL in EPA per play allowed if you remove turnovers from the sample. Plus, the defense is top five in explosive play rate allowed, fourth in pressure rate, and eighth in yards per drive allowed. When you add in that kicker Joshua Karty has done an excellent job of denying opponents good field position, the Rams are about as difficult a first NFL start as you could draw up.
The weakness for the Rams defense is the corners, in my opinion, but the Saints don’t really have the receiving talent to exploit that. The Saints need to be able to run the ball to set up anything on the road, and that will be very difficult to do. I’m betting against Shough for the first—and probably not the last—time. The market has taken one-way action since Shough was announced as the starter, and quite frankly, I agree with the bets against the rookie.
Verdict: Bet Saints team total under 13.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders (+3)
After the Jaguars and Raiders got smoked in London and Kansas City, respectively, both teams needed the bye. The Raiders should get Brock Bowers back, but it’s increasingly unclear whether the Raiders do anything well. Maybe the bye week will help them (and specifically Geno Smith) hit the reset button after bottoming out in the game before that. But I’m not all that interested in paying to find out. I’d also hate to bet the Raiders, given that Maxx Crosby could be traded at any moment and he’s so important to their defense.
Jacksonville’s turnover-fueled hot start has since subsided, but my numbers are right in line with this spread at Jags –3. There are better games to bet.
Verdict: Pass
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+2)
The market has really fallen in love with the Chiefs: They are now power rated as the clear best team in the NFL following their 28-7 win on Monday Night Football against the Commanders. Given Buffalo’s general defensive issues and the loss of Ed Oliver to an injury, it’s no surprise that the market has opened up the Chiefs as a favorite, even though the Bills rarely lose at home in the Josh Allen era.
These two teams and quarterbacks have played each other so often that there’s really not all that much new to say about them. It usually comes down to the final possession or a major fourth-down conversion. Last year, the Bills won the regular-season meeting after converting a touchdown on a fourth down, but later, in January, they lost the playoff meeting after the Chiefs stopped them on fourth down. Kansas City’s fourth-down defense has been unsustainably good this season, and its EPA metrics are off the charts. The Chiefs have also had some fumble recovery luck go their way. This will serve as a good test to see whether the Chiefs defense is improved following early-season struggles.
Overall, the main point is that Kansas City’s offense has vastly improved from what we saw last year and even for most of 2023. The Chiefs have the advantage on both sides of the ball.
It’s hard to justify laying –2 on the road, but that’d be the only way I could bet this AFC clash of titans. Buffalo’s secondary hasn’t faced a lot of great offenses, and I have a lot more faith in Patrick Mahomes to once again get the better of Sean McDermott.
Verdict: Lean Chiefs –2
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders (+3.5)
This is the all-in spot for the Commanders. They’re at 3-5, and their season will hang in the balance on Sunday in a prime-time game at home. However, the schedule makers did them no favors. They’re on a short week coming off Monday night, where they picked up more critical injuries, and the Seahawks are as healthy as they’ve been all year coming off their bye week. Terry McLaurin has already been ruled out after re-aggravating his quad injury. Jayden Daniels will probably be back, but he hasn’t been close to efficient or healthy for most of this season.
I suspect Seattle will be a very popular pick this week given how these two teams are trending. Even though I came into the season very high on the Hawks and low on the Commanders, this price is a little expensive now that it has moved from Seattle –3 to Seattle –3.5.
Verdict: Lean Seattle –3.5, bet at –3
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (–2.5)
The Dallas secondary wasn’t good to begin with, but now it’s been absolutely ravaged by injuries. The Cowboys and Bengals are in the running for the worst defense in the NFL, and both are breaking new ground on just how low professional defenses can be rated. I think Dallas is better than Cincinnati at full strength, but the secondary’s injury crisis has left Dallas starting practice squad–level players. Not only is Trevon Diggs out, but both starting safeties are likely to miss Monday night as well. It’s gotten so bad that the Cowboys had an undrafted rookie corner, Reddy Steward, playing safety on Sunday.
The betting market has taken notice of the injury situation. The Cowboys moved from –3 to –2.5, and the total sits at 53.5. I continue to love betting on the Cowboys offense at home, where they have scored 40-plus points in all three of their games this year. They’ll need to score at least 28 to have any chance in this game, and for that reason, I’ll trust Dak Prescott at home. The Cowboys are still hitting explosive plays through the air and will continue to do so as long as Prescott has time to throw.
Verdict: Bet Cowboys team total over 27.5
Favorite five:
Giants +2.5
Lions –8.5
Colts –3
Falcons-Patriots under 45.5
Bears-Bengals over 50.5
Other bets:
Dolphins +7.5
Saints team total under 13.5
Cowboys team total over 27.5
Anthony Dabbundo
Anthony Dabbundo is a sports betting writer and podcast host featured on The Ringer Gambling Show, mostly concentrating on the NFL and soccer (he’s a tortured Spurs supporter). Plus, he’s a massive Phillies fan and can be heard talking baseball on The Ringer’s Philly Special. Also: Go Orange.First Appeared on
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