AP, Analytics Disagree On Preseason College Basketball Top 25

Last year, I introduced a new weekly column for the college basketball season called “CBB With Danny Z.” Good news for all my fans (mostly my friends and family), we’re bringing it back this year! 

While the column won’t be weekly until a little later in the season (when people start paying close attention to college basketball), it seemed fitting to do an early edition this season to cover the first AP Top 25 poll, which was released on Monday. 

Specifically, I wanted to look at where the AP Poll, the gold standard in college basketball, differed from the analytical community. For the purposes of this piece, I’m going to use Ken Pomeroy’s rankings (KenPom), who also released his predictive ratings for the 2025-26 season. 

Let’s dive in… 

AP Preseason Top 25 Poll Released 

Slight differences at the top

For the first time in school history, Purdue finds itself as the No. 1 team in the country in the Preseason AP Top 25 Poll. However, KenPom sees it slightly differently. According to his analytical model, Purdue is the third-best team in the country behind second-rated Florida and top-rated Houston. 

The differences are minor, though, considering Houston (No. 2) and Florida (No. 3) also make up the top three in the AP Poll. The Boilermakers return several key starters, including Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufmann-Renn. They also added South Dakota State transfer Oscar Cluff, the Summit League Newcomer of the Year in 2024-25. It’s easy to see why voters selected Purdue as the top squad heading into the season, even though the Boilermakers lost to Houston in the Sweet 16. 

KenPom is slightly higher on the very young Houston Cougars, which figure to count heavily on two top-15 recruits (Chris Cenac, Jr. and Isiah Hartwell). Three of the starters from last year’s national runner-up squad return (Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan and Joseph Tugler), but they’ll have to replace their top guard (L.J. Cryer) and top frontcourt player (J’Wan Roberts). 

Florida’s starting lineup will feature three players from last year’s National Championship team, Rueben Chinyelu, Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh. Plus, head coach Todd Golden brought in two important transfers (Boogie Fland, Arkansas; and Xaivian Lee, Princeton) to round out the starting five. 

St. John’s represents biggest point of contention 

The Red Storm surprised a lot of people with a 27-4 regular season that culminated with a Big East Tournament title. However, Rick Pitino couldn’t carry that momentum in the NCAA Tournament, with the Johnnies bowing out with a second-round loss to Arkansas. 

Coming into this season, AP voters like St. John’s chances to repeat as Big East champions, placing them at No. 5 overall, just behind No. 4 UConn, the highest-ranked Big East school. But KenPom isn’t as optimistic about a repeat performance. While the analytics guru also has the Red Storm rated as the second-best team in the Big East, he has them at 16th overall, 11 spots behind fifth-rated UConn. 

Pitino was extremely active in the transfer portal, and his team will be very reliant on new faces. Four of the team’s projected starters played at different schools last season. They include: Ian Jackson, North Carolina; Joson Sanon, Arizona State; Oziyah Sellers, Stanford; and Bryce Hopkins, Providence. The only returning starter is Zuby Ejiofor.

Creighton, Arkansas, Auburn, BYU, North Carolina and Alabama among teams ranked higher by AP Poll 

AP voters like those six schools much more than KenPom does, with Creighton holding the biggest difference in the rankings. The AP Poll features Creighton at No. 23, while KenPom has the Blue Jays outside the Top 40. There’s a clear disconnect about the Big East between the AP and the analytics, with UConn, St. John’s and Creighton all ranked higher by the former than the latter – especially Creighton and St. John’s. 

Arkansas, which upset St. John’s in the 2025 NCAA Tournament before suffering a heartbreaking loss in the Sweet 16 against Texas Tech in overtime, sits at No. 15 in the AP Poll. But KenPom doesn’t see it that way, with the Razorbacks at 29th.  

Auburn saw head coach Bruce Pearl surprisingly retire in September, and it is another school inside the AP Top 25 (No. 20) but outside KenPom’s Top 30. As with the Big East, AP voters like the SEC much more than the analytics. Alabama is the third conference school with at least an eight-spot difference between the two rankings (No. 15 in AP Poll, 23rd in KenPom ratings). 

The AP has BYU inside its Top 10 (No. 8), but KenPom places the Cougars at 18th overall. The North Carolina Tar Heels, who barely squeaked into the NCAA Tournament last year, are the final team in the AP Top 25, but KenPom has them 33rd. UNC returns one starter from last year (Seth Trimble), but will rely on three transfers (Kyan Evans, Colorado State; Luka Bogavac, SC Derby; and, Henri Veesaar, Arizona) along with freshman Caleb Wilson. 

Gonzaga, Illinois and Tennessee getting more love from KenPom than the AP 

Perennial National Championship contender Gonzaga isn’t getting much love from the AP (No. 21), but is loved by the analytics (8th in KenPom’s ratings). The team returns its best player, two-time First-Team All-WCC player Graham Ike, as well as fellow starter Braden Huff. They added international player Mario Saint-Supery (Spain) and two important transfers (Adam Miller, Arizona State; and Tyon Grant-Foster, Grand Canyon). 

Illinois is another squad inside KenPom’s Top 10 (6th), but outside the AP Top 15 (No. 17). The Illini lost two players to the transfer portal expected to start for other Top 25 teams (Morez Johnson, Jr., Michigan and Tre White, Kansas). But they grabbed a pair of important transfers of their own (Andrej Stojakovic, California and Zvonimir Ivisic, Arkansas) as well as adding Mihailo Petrovic, a freshman from Serbia. 

While several SEC teams find themselves ranked much higher in the AP Poll than in KenPom’s rankings, Tennessee is the opposite. The Volunteers are No. 18 in the former, but 9th in the latter. The Volunteers are another team that lost much of its production from last year’s Elite Eight squad. They’ll depend on two transfers (Ja’Kobi Gillespie, Maryland and Amaree Abram, Louisiana Tech), a top-five recruit (Nate Ament), as well as one starter (Felix Okpara) and one bench player (Cade Phillips) from last year as this year’s starting five. 

Other schools inside KenPom’s Top 25 but unranked in the AP Poll include Baylor (17th), Vanderbilt (19th), USC (22nd), and Ole Miss (24th). He also has Kentucky (5th) inside the Top 5, while the AP sees the Wildcats just inside the Top 10 (No. 9). 

Roundball Roundup… 

Chad Baker-Mazara throws some shade at his former school… 

Brad Underwood throws some shade at American basketball players… 

NCAA sets a new precedent with a former G-League player… 

This is just kinda funny… 

Do you agree? 

Well, that’s it for me this week. Want to see something included in the next edition of “CBB With Danny Z”? Shoot me an email at [email protected] or a tweet @RealDanZak.