Which Could Be The World’s Biggest Company By End-2026?

Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) have quietly become the two most dominant forces inside the Magnificent Seven, riding different paths to the same destination: artificial intelligence supremacy.

Nvidia’s GPUs remain the backbone of the global AI buildout, powering everything from data centers to cutting-edge model training.

Alphabet, meanwhile, is pushing its own vertically integrated AI stack — from custom TPUs to Gemini — embedding intelligence directly across Search, Cloud and consumer products.

The market thus far has rewarded both approaches. Nvidia is up 33% year-to-date through Dec. 17, while Alphabet has surged 62%.

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Zooming out further tells an even more dramatic story: since early 2023, Alphabet shares are up roughly 250%, while Nvidia has delivered a staggering 1,120% return.

That explosive run has made Nvidia the world’s biggest company today, with a market capitalization of about $4.318 trillion — even briefly touching $5 trillion earlier this year. Alphabet ranks third at approximately $3.7 trillion, behind Apple’s $4.05 trillion valuation.

Yet traders see a far closer race ahead.

On Polymarket, both Nvidia and Alphabet are assigned a 35% probability of being the world’s most valuable company by the end of 2026.

A $100 bet on Alphabet overtaking Nvidia to become the world’s biggest company by the end of next year would pay out $265 if it happens — with nearly identical returns available for those wagering that Nvidia holds onto the crown.

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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) trails with a 14% chance, followed by Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:MSFT) at 9%.

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) sit further back, at 4% and 3%, respectively.

For Alphabet to dethrone Nvidia as world’s biggest company, it needs to outperform by a meaningful margin.

The current valuation gap between the two companies is about $600 billion.

If Nvidia’s market cap were to grow 10% in 2026, it would climb from roughly $4.3 trillion to about $4.75 trillion. For Alphabet to leapfrog Nvidia in that scenario, its shares would need to outperform Nvidia by roughly 19 percentage points.

In practical terms, that would mean Alphabet gaining about 29% in a year where Nvidia rises 10%, lifting Google’s valuation to around $4.77 trillion.

Any performance gap of 19 percentage points in Alphabet’s favor could hand it the crown — assuming today’s market caps as the starting line.

The bet, then, is whether Alphabet’s AI monetization, advertising leverage and cloud growth can accelerate faster than Nvidia’s already-dominant chip business.

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Where traders see a coin flip, Wall Street analysts remain more decisive.

Based on median 12-month price targets, analysts expect Nvidia’s reign to continue. Consensus estimates point to Nvidia shares reaching about $250 over the next year, or roughly 40% upside from the current price near $177.

Alphabet’s outlook is far more muted by comparison. Analysts see a median 12-month target of $330, implying just 6% upside from its current level around $306.

That gap underscores the tension at the core of the debate: prediction markets see a neck-and-neck race for the world’s largest company, while Wall Street analysts continue to model an extended run of Nvidia’s dominance.

By the end of 2026, the outcome may hinge on a single question: will the AI arms race ultimately reward the company supplying the picks and shovels, or the one embedding intelligence into every layer of the digital economy?

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Image created using artificial intelligence via Gemini.

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This article Nvidia Vs. Alphabet: Which Could Be The World’s Biggest Company By End-2026? originally appeared on Benzinga.com