2026 NCAA Tournament bracket picks for first weekend: Contenders, upsets, more

Filling out brackets is a time-honored tradition in college basketball. After the selection committee set the 2026 NCAA Tournament field, fans across the country started picking apart the matchups for the early contenders, best upset candidates and more.

While no bracket is ever perfect, maximizing the chances to predict all the results of the first weekend takes more time than anyone has to spend. Meanwhile, the co-worker or family member who picks based on the mascots or colors will likely win anyway.

After watching all 68 teams in the field throughout the season, there is a datapoint for every matchup to pull from in analysis. Here are my best projections for the chaos of the First Four, Round of 64, and Round of 32 as March Madness sweeps the nation.

First Four (Dayton)

16 UMBC vs. 16 Howard
16 Prairie View vs. 16 Lehigh
11 Texas vs. 11 NC State
11 Miami (OH) vs. 11 SMU

Round of 64

East (Washington DC)
1 Duke vs. 16 Siena
8 Ohio State vs. 9 TCU
5 St. John’s vs. 12 Northern Iowa
4 Kansas vs. 13 Cal Baptist
6 Louisville vs. 11 South Florida
3 Michigan State vs. 14 North Dakota State
7 UCLA vs. 10 UCF
2 UConn vs. 15 Furman

South Florida is the upset pick in this portion of the bracket, with their pace, three-point volume and tough mentality primed to meet a Louisville team which is not guaranteed to get Mikel Brown back at 100-percent early. The other game to watch for is UCF, facing UCLA which has not travelled well to the East Coast.

South (Houston)
1 Florida vs. 16 Lehigh
8 Clemson vs. 9 Iowa
5 Vanderbilt vs. 12 McNeese
4 Nebraska vs. 13 Troy
6 North Carolina vs. 11 VCU
3 Illinois vs. 14 Penn
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Texas A&M
2 Houston vs. 15 Idaho

Iowa and Clemson could be a very tight contest, but in injury to Clemson’s starting lineup tilts it in favor of an Iowa team with NCAA Tournament experience from last season — albeit at Drake. Texas A&M is also a fascinating matchup for St. Mary’s, given the unique Bucky Ball style.

West (San Jose)
1 Arizona vs. 16 LIU
8 Villanova vs. 9 Utah State
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 High Point
4 Arkansas vs. 13 Hawaii
6 BYU vs. 11 Texas
3 Gonzaga vs. 14 Kennesaw State
7 Miami vs. 10 Missouri
2 Purdue vs. 15 Queens

Utah State and Villanova could go either direction, indicating it is a great 8-seed vs. 9-seed matchup. Meanwhile, the winner of Texas vs. NC State in the play-in will look to capitalize on a BYU team missing Richie Saunders. Missouri is one to monitor as well, with home-court advantage as the lower seed.

Midwest (Chicago)
1 Michigan vs. 16 UMBC
8 Georgia vs. 9 St. Louis
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 Akron
4 Alabama vs. 13 Hofstra
6 Tennessee vs. 11 SMU
3 Virginia vs. 14 Wright State
7 Kentucky vs. 10 Santa Clara
2 Iowa State vs. 15 Tennessee State

Akron is the most lively underdog in the NCAA Tournament this season, catching Texas Tech with multiple injuries to star players, while on a win streak of their own. SMU could also outplay their seed, if BJ Edwards returns healthy and brings back his team’s early form. Santa Clara could also give Kentucky plenty trouble after shaking up the WCC.

Round of 32

East (Washington DC)
1 Duke vs. 8 Ohio State
5 St. John’s vs. 4 Kansas
11 South Florida vs. 3 Michigan State
7 UCLA vs. 2 UConn

The favorites here are pretty clear in three of the four matchups, if the bracket breaks this way. St. John’s and Kansas is very close, but the size the Red Storm brings could prove challenging, particularly in their recent form.

South (Houston)
1 Florida vs. 9 Iowa
5 Vanderbilt vs. 4 Nebraska
6 North Carolina vs. 3 Illinois
10 Texas A&M vs. 2 Houston

Another bracket with clear favorites outside of the 4-seed vs. 5-seed matchup, this region will focus on one matchup. Vanderbilt and Nebraska have both overachieved on the season, but the edge goes to Vanderbilt based on their postseason form to this point, where Nebraska bowed out early.

West (San Jose)
1 Arizona vs. 9 Utah State
5 Wisconsin vs. 4 Arkansas
6 BYU vs. 3 Gonzaga
7 Miami vs. 2 Purdue

This sections of the bracket could continue to provide chalk, with some powerful top teams in the mix. Wisconsin and BYU could both be lively in their matchups, based on the star power they bring, but the higher seeds project to prevail.

Midwest (Chicago)
1 Michigan vs. 8 Georgia
12 Akron vs. 4 Alabama
11 SMU vs. 3 Virginia
7 Kentucky vs. 2 Iowa State

While most of the top seeds are projected to advance into the second weekend on this bracket, there is one potential bracket buster which has a path toward the Sweet 16. Akron matches up well with Alabama again in the second round, and could make a statement about the MAC’s strength this season.