2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology updates from Friday’s conference tournament action

The NCAA Tournament bubble continues to move closer to its final form as Selection Sunday moves closer, with bid stealers in play to shake things up further. Entering the weekend, the top seed-lines are also up for grabs in the final stages of conference tournament action.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As the bubble teams create headlines across the country, there is a much clearer picture of where teams stand in the pecking order. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field from On3.

Bracketology will update each day from now until Selection Sunday, with live updates after key results. Stay tuned for the latest projections. Last updated at 10 am ET on 3/13.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
Last four byes: Santa Clara, NC State, UCF, Missouri
Last four in: Miami (OH), SMU, Texas, VCU
First four out: New Mexico, Auburn, SDSU, Indiana

First Four (Dayton)

16 IDAHO (Big Sky) vs. 16 Howard (MEAC)
16 LEHIGH (Patriot) vs. 16 Florida A&M (SWAC)
11 Miami (OH) vs. 11 Texas
11 SMU vs. 11 VCU

East (Washington)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 SIENA (MAAC)
8 Ohio State vs. 9 Georgia
Portland
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 HIGH POINT (Big South)
4 Vanderbilt vs. 13 NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit)
St. Louis
6 Louisville vs. 11 Miami (OH)
3 Illinois vs. 14 WRIGHT STATE (Horizon)
St. Louis
7 Villanova vs. 10 Texas A&M
2 Iowa State vs. 15 TENNESSEE STATE (OVC)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after surviving a close postseason debut against Florida State. The Blue Devils are ensured a 1-seed spot, but need to win the ACC Tournament to lock up the top overall spot.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State jumps up to take Illinois’ spot on the 2-seed line after a Big 12 Tournament win over Texas Tech. The Cyclones will now face Arizona with a chance to cement themselves on this line and take a shot at the conference title.

South (Houston)

Tampa
1 Florida (SEC) vs. 16 LEHIGH/Florida A&M
8 Clemson vs. 9 Iowa
San Diego
5 Tennessee vs. 12 Akron (MAC)
4 Kansas vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Greenville
6 BYU vs. 11 Texas/VCU
3 Purdue vs. 14 Sam Houston (CUSA)
Philadelphia
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 NC State
2 UConn vs. 15 UMBC (AEC)

1-seed Florida

Florida picks up a win over Kentucky to close out the regular season, helping them jump UConn for a 1-seed spot. If they win out in the SEC Tournament, the Gators should lock themselves on the top seed-line for Selection Sunday.

2-seed UConn

UConn suffered a loss against Marquette to close the regular season, dropping their grasp on the 1-seed line. Now, the Huskies must make a deep Big East Tournament run to get back into the mix for the top seed-line.

Midwest (Chicago)

Buffalo
1 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 16 FURMAN (SoCon)
8 Utah State (MWC) vs. 9 TCU
Philadelphia
5 Arkansas vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Virginia vs. 13 NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
Oklahoma City
6 North Carolina vs. 11 South Florida (American)
3 Nebraska vs. 14 TROY (SBC)
Oklahoma City
7 Kentucky vs. 10 Santa Clara
2 Houston vs. 15 QUEENS (ASUN)

1-seed Michigan

Michigan remains the No. 2 overall seed in bracketology after winning their final regular season game against Michigan State. The Wolverines still have a shot at the No. 1 overall seed if they can win out through the Big Ten Tournament and get a Duke loss.

2-seed Houston

Houston remains in a large debate over the final 2-seed spot, but is able to hold on after a win over Oklahoma State to close the regular season. Their spot in bracketology will ultimately come down to the Big 12 Tournament results.

West (San Jose)

San Diego
1 Arizona (Big 12) vs. 16 IDAHO/Howard
8 UCLA vs. 9 St. Louis (A10)
Tampa
5 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 12 MCNEESE (Southland)
4 Alabama vs. 13 HOFSTRA (CAA)
Portland
6 Wisconsin vs. 11 Missouri/SMU
3 Gonzaga vs. 14 UC Irvine (Big West)
Buffalo
7 Miami vs. 10 UCF
2 Michigan State vs. 15 LIU (NEC)

1-seed Arizona

Arizona remains in the mix with Duke and Michigan to land the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology after beating Colorado to close the regular season. The Wildcats would need a Big 12 title and losses by those above them, but are at no risk of dropping to the 2-seed line.

2-seed Michigan State

Michigan State remains on the 2-seed line despite a loss in its regular season finale against Michigan. The Spartans can still move up the board with a strong Big Ten Tournament performance.