3 predictions for Michigan Basketball vs Saint Louis in the Round of 32

The 1-seed Michigan Wolverines will take on the 9-seed Saint Louis Billikins in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday. Michigan is favored by 12.5 points against Saint Louis, according to FanDuel, after winning its first round matchup against 16-seed Howard, 101-80. Meanwhile, the Billikens beat the 8-seeded Georgia Bulldogs, 102-77, on Thursday night.

With both programs dominating the paint against their respective opponents, it will be an interesting matchup on Saturday for the chance to play another week. Here are three predictions for the matchup.

Michigan will double Saint Louis’ paint total

The Wolverines were in a tight first half against Howard, largely due to the fact they tried to match the Bison’s three-point shooting in the period. Michigan had no choice but to match Howard’s 10-for-16 from three, electing to take 13 first-half three-point attempts, making seven of them. However, Michigan also won the game in the paint, and it will look to build off that against the Billikins.

Saint Louis’s starting lineup’s tallest player is listed at 6-foot-10 (Robbie Avila). Michigan has 7-foot-3 Aday Mara, 6-foot-10 Morez Johnson Jr. and 6-foot-9 Yaxel Lendeborg. The Wolverines were able to score 40 points in the paint on Thursday, and there is a strong chance they do the same Saturday. There is no doubt Saint Louis will find some success down low, led by Avila, but Michigan’s size and physicality inside will make it for a lopsided battle in the paint.

Yaxel Lendeborg will struggle offensively once again

Lendeborg led Michigan in scoring, averaging 14.4 points per game, but he has been used largely as a decoy in recent weeks. Outside of the buzzer-beater against Wisconsin, Lendeborg had just nine points in that game. Following that, he was shut down for most of the game against Purdue in the Big Ten Championship, getting most of his 20 points in the final minutes.

He finished the win against Howard with just nine points on 2-for-5 shooting, proving to be a non-factor on offense against a much smaller team. Now, he’s going to be matched up with Avila. The Bilikens’ center has been a force on both sides of the ball this season, leading Saint Louis to 18th in the country in Team Defensive Efficiency. While he does not have the size advantage, Avila has held his own against big and powerful forwards all season, and he could cause Lendeborg some real issues.

Michigan will force turnovers and get a comfortable win

Forcing turnovers hasn’t been Michigan’s strength this year, but turnovers are something Saint Louis is very susceptible to. The Billikens are 283rd nationally in turnovers, averaging 12.5 per game. With how long Michigan is, it should be able to give Saint Louis problems with its length and aggressiveness. Saint Louis hasn’t faced a team as strong and big as the Wolverines all year, so if Michigan can clog up those passing lanes more than Saint Louis is used to, it could lead to some turnovers and nice transition offense opportunities.

In all, Saint Louis is a significantly better team than Howard. However, Michigan’s length should cause a lot of problems for a team that has consistently shot the ball very well this season. If they do what is expected, they should be able to win comfortably and advance to the Sweet Sixteen.