Tropical Storm Melissa continues to be slow-moving in the Caribbean but is expected to turn into a hurricane and bring heavy rain, the threat of catastrophic flooding and landslides to parts of Jamaica and Haiti before rapidly strengthening into a powerful hurricane, forecasters say.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm is predicted to gradually strengthen over the next day or so, followed by “rapid intensification” this weekend.
“Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday,” NHC forecasters said. Storms are considered major hurricanes when they reach Category 3 status, with winds of 111 mph or above.
Where is Tropical Storm Melissa now, and what is its path?
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Melissa was located about 230 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
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The storm has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.
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It’s moving east-southeast at 2 mph.
Meteorologists said the center of the storm is expected to move near or just south of Jamaica early next week and could be near eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.
Watches and warnings in effect
According to the NHC, these are the watches and warnings in place:
A hurricane watch is in effect for:
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Southwestern peninsula of Haiti, from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince
“A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area,” the NHC said. “A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.”
Forecasters said a hurricane warning “may be required” for Jamaica later today.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
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Southwestern peninsula of Haiti, from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince
“A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours,” the NHC said.
What are the storm’s expected impacts and timing?
Forecasters say that in southern Haiti, “catastrophic flash flooding and landslides” are expected into early next week. Melissa could bring 10 to 20 inches of rainfall to southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Monday, according to the NHC.
“Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern Haiti,” the latest forecast said.
Along the coast of Jamaica, minor coastal flooding is likely, though forecasters say there’s a potential risk for a more significant storm surge along the south coast early next week. “Due to Melissa’s slow motion and large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how high the storm surge could reach,” the NHC said.
How is the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season shaping up?
So far, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1 and runs through the end of November, has been relatively mild. There have been 13 named storms and four hurricanes, three of which developed into major hurricanes. All four of those hurricanes have followed similar tracks that have taken them away from the U.S. mainland. At this point in the 2024 season, the U.S. had already been hit by two massively destructive storms, Helene and Milton, which devastated swaths of the Southeast.
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