Week 9 NFL straight up, against the spread, and survivor pool picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 9 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not necessarily cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I’ll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Ravens (-7.5) at Dolphins: It looks like Lamar Jackson will return to the field in this matchup, after the Ravens’ injury report shenanigans Week 8. The Ravens still feel like favorites to me to win the AFC North, even after they started 1-5.

The Ravens are only two games behind the Steelers, with a still unblemished divisional record. But, obviously, they have to take care of business against the rest of the AFC North teams as well as the bad teams on their schedule. And certainly, the Dolphins are a bad team.

Colts (-3) at Steelers: As you know if you read my picks post each week, I love the site Inpredictable.com, which are team rankings based on betting market information. They’re more or less what the sportsbooks think of each team, or maybe more accurately, how gamblers will bet them. It’s a good way to find value if the rankings don’t align with your own views of the league.And in my opinion, the Colts represent one of the most underrated teams in the NFL, at 7th, and the Steelers are still being overrated in my opinion at 16th.Like, how are the Colts only 7th? They’ve been the best team in the NFL through the first eight weeks, and I don’t think any other team has been particularly close. May as well take advantage until the betting public adjusts their preseason expectations to what this team is actually doing on the field. I’ll lay three points with the Colts over this Steelers team that has a decent enough record (4-3) but does not look at all like a good football team.

Bears (-3) at Bengals: The Bengals are another team that is being undervalued by betting markets, at 29th. I mean, they’re not a good football team, but they’re also not one of the four worst teams in the NFL. 

Meanwhile, Caleb Williams has had like one good game this season, and it was against the Cowboys, whose defense makes every quarterback look like prime Tom Brady.

These teams feel relatively equal to me, at least ever since Joe Flacco took over at quarterback for Cincinnati, so sure, I’ll take the Bengals at home with points.

49ers (-2.5) at Giants: It feels like most weeks I’m writing something like, “This 49ers team is so banged up, but (fill in their opponent) is just such a flawed team.”

And certainly, the Giants are an extremely flawed team. But I kinda like the Giants’ chances of putting points on the board against this Niners practice squad defense, just not so much that I’m going to make it one of my picks against the spread.

Falcons at Patriots (-5.5): Speaking of easy schedules, here is who the Patri*ts have played so far this season:

1. Week 1: Raiders
2. Week 2: At Dolphins
3. Week 3: Steelers
4. Week 4: Panthers
5. Week 5: At Bills
6. Week 6: At Saints
7. Week 7: At Titans
8. Week 8: Browns

The Patri*ts have become the league’s darlings this season, and Drake Maye is rightfully getting MVP buzz, but the above schedule is a also a pretty big reason why they’re 6-2. They’ll get to 7-2 after taking care of this trash Falcons team.

I look forward to picking the Buccaneers against them next week, though.

Panthers at Packers (-13.5): Based on interactions on Twitter, etc., I kinda feel like people don’t want to acknowledge that the Packers are good. They are 🤷‍♂️. And they’ll easily handle this bad-but-frisky Panthers team.

I do think this has some potential for being a trap game, with the Eagles on the Packers’ schedule Week 10, but the Panthers just aren’t good enough to pull off an upset in Green Bay.

Vikings at Lions (-8.5): The Vikings don’t have a quarterback.

Broncos at Texans (-1.5): The Broncos’ pass rush vs. the Texans’ offensive line should be one of the biggest mismatches of the NFL season.

Chargers (-9.5) at Titans: The Titans are the worst team in the NFL.

Jaguars (-3) at Raiders: This game only matters to the hipster QB guru wannabes, as their two heroes — Trevor Lawrence and Geno Smith — will compete to throw the most majestic interception that All-22 film has ever produced. 

The Jags were looking like a fun story for a hot second, before they got easily handled by the Seahawks and blown out by the Rams. But Good Lord, the Raiders are even worse of late, having managed just 95 total yards in their embarrassing Week 7 loss to the Chiefs.

The Raiders are coming off their bye. Does that do anything for anyone? No? Me neither.

Saints at Rams (-14): The Rams are as solid a survivor pool pick as you’ll find Week 9, as we’ll get to momentarily.

Chiefs (-2) at Bills: The Chiefs have gotten their act together of late, beating the Lions, and then blowing out the Raiders and Commanders. But the Bills may be getting right again as well, as they just shellacked the Panthers 40-9 after consecutive losses to the Patri*ts and Falcons. 

The Chiefs have won four straight playoff games against the Bills. The Bills have won four straight regular season games against the Chiefs. So what the hell, give me the Bills in this comparatively low-stakes matchup.

Seahawks (-3) at Commanders: The Seahawks are the No. 2 team in the NFL, by DVOA, and have looked all season like legitimate contenders. Their defensive line has dominated at times, and they have proven they can put points on the board.

The Commanders are the oldest team in the NFL, and it shows in their team speed on defense. Jayden Daniels will probably play in this game, but he might not be the dynamic running threat we’ve come to know, as he is returning from a hamstring injury.

Cardinals at Cowboys (-2.5): I love this “bad team matchup” from a viewership perspective. The Cowboys never fail to entertain when they play in primetime (and I don’t really mean that in a complimentary way), while Kyler Murray is maybe the most chaotic quarterback in the league and Jonathan Gannon is fighting for job survival. I will make sure I am not busy Monday night.

BYE: Eagles, Buccaneers, Jets, Browns.