Matt Rhule and Nebraska have agreed to a contract extension that will keep him at Nebraska for an extra two years, and give him the opportunity to earn raises by making the College Footbal Playoff. This effectively ends the speculation of Rhule being a candidate for the head coaching job at Penn State, his alma mater, or anywhere else.
What can we learn and deduce from the contract extension? Here are seven things I believe:
Matt Rhule is fully committed to Nebraska.
Rhule’s history as a head coach has always been nomadic. Four seasons at Temple. Three at Baylor. Two and change in the NFL. With Rhule in his third season at Nebraska (and with the job at his alma mater currently open, along with multiple high profile CFP jobs), many fans and pundits speculated about Rhule leaving for a different opportunity. Given his track record, this would be about the time he pulls up stakes.
But since his first day on the job, Rhule has said that Nebraska is different. He does not view Nebraska as a stepping stone. It is a destination. He and his family have backed that up by putting down roots here. His wife Julie owns a business. Their son attends – and works for – UNL. Their young daughters play for a Lincoln volleyball club. His parents have moved here.
Sure, the Rhule clan could replicate these things in State College, PA or most of the college towns in the Power Four. But Rhule choosing to stay – and shutting down the speculation about him going anywhere else – says that he’s happy here. It tells me that Rhule believes he can win here. And it confirms what I already knew: Lincoln is pretty darn good place to live and raise a family.
Troy Dannen is all-in on Matt Rhule.
At a football school, the job security of an athletic director is directly tied to the success of the football coach. Just ask Steve Pederson, Shawn Eichorst, or LSU AD Scott Woodward. Hire the wrong guy – or, in Pederson’s case, extend his contract too early – and your tenure could be short.
Knowing this, athletic directors prefer to hire “their guy” – a coach that the AD believes will be successful, keeping him employed for a long, long time. Therefore, it would have been easy for Troy Dannen to let the Matt Rhule speculation play out. If Rhule never gets an offer (or turns it down without a contract extension), great! If Rhule goes back to his alma mater, Dannen gets to hire his own coach.
Choosing to extend Matt Rhule’s contract – especially this early in his tenure* – tells me that Troy Dannen believes Rhule is the best choice for Nebraska football, and he’s going all-in. Previously, it would have been accurate to say that Rhule was a Trev Alberts hire that Dannen inherited. With this extension, Rhule is now a Dannen hire. As such, their job security is now joined at the hip. If Rhule goes down, he’s likely taking Dannen with him.
*I agree that extending the contract of a coach who is currently 18-15 with zero wins over ranked teams feels premature. Dannen understood that as long as the PSU job was open Rhule – and his agent – had leverage. If Dannen wanted to keep his guy, he needed to adjust and extend the contract. Dannen also knew that Rhule’s relatively low buyout made him an attractive target for other schools.
Yes, the argument can be made that Dannen’s decision was influenced by not wanting to go coach shopping in a year when many high-profile jobs will be open. I’ll point out that in his previous stops, Dannen hired Willie Fritz (Tulane) and Jedd Fisch (Washington). I’m guessing Dannen feels confident in his ability to land a quality replacement at a school that has a lot to offer. But he chose Matt Rhule.
Nebraska does not have to start over.
I’ve heard people say that they wouldn’t care if Rhule left for another job, because “Nebraska could hire just about any coach and get the same results.” I’m not going to address the ridiculousness of that claim (Scott Frost, anyone?). But I will point out the fundamental flaw in that argument: it assumes a simple one-for-one swap of Rhule for some other coach with a career winning percentage around .525. I’m sorry, but that is not how it would work.
Think about it: If Rhule were to go to Penn State, how many members of his coaching staff would he take? Do you think he’d make a play to keep Mike Ekeler and Dana Holgorsen on his staff? I do. How many of his current players would hop in the transfer portal to follow him wherever he goes? Five? Ten? Twenty? How many recruits decommit?
Assuming Dannen hired a replacement from outside of the current staff, does that new coach retain any of NU’s best assistants? Would his systems compliment the talent on hand, or would there be a roster flip?
At a minimum, replacing a coach who leaves for a different job is like rebooting a computer – you have to close out of anything you were working on, and it always takes longer than you think to get back up and running. At worst, it’s like a system crash where important files are lost, and you have to start over on the thing you were been working on.
A contract extension is the cost of doing business in 2025.
Did Rhule – and his agent – leverage the Penn State opening for a better contract?
Absolutely. And I commend them for it.
Look at this from Rhule’s perspective. He’s doing good things at Nebraska. He took over one of the worst power conference teams and is methodically rebuilding them towards being a consistent winner. No, Nebraska is not on the Curt Cignetti bullet train, but Cigs appears to be a one-of-one. Overall, Nebraska’s rebuild is progressing nicely and there are definite signs that they’re close to breaking through. I’m guessing Rhule’s agent believes that is enough to warrant contract extension talks, even if the overall record (weighed down by the debris of the Frost era and the realities of playing in one of the strongest conferences in the game) doesn’t fully reflect it. Troy Dannen certainly did.
Meanwhile, the job at your alma mater comes open. The AD making the hire is one of your best friends. Obviously, you’ll be a candidate – either in courtesy or in reality. That increases your leverage to ask for a raise.
I can think of times in my career where I, or a coworker had an opportunity to take another job. In that scenario, it is fairly common for the current employer to offer a raise or other incentives in an attempt to keep an employee they value. Aside from Rhule’s paycheck having more zeroes than mine, a contract extension is basically the same thing.
If you think Rhule is already paid handsomely and does not need any more money, that’s fine. But I’ll once again ask you to look at this from the perspective of Rhule (or any other CFB coach): James Franklin has had two losing seasons in his 14+ years as a head coach: his first year at perennial bottom feeder Vanderbilt, and the 2020 COVID season at Penn State. He took PSU to the national semifinals in January and was fired six games later. If a coach with Franklin’s resume is a three-game losing streak away from being fired, do you really blame coaches from trying to secure a golden parachute when they can? Wouldn’t you do the same thing?
An extension does NOT mean Nebraska will never lose again.
I can already picture the reaction whenever Nebraska loses their next game: “Why did Dannen give Rhule an extension? He can’t even beat ____!”
Please don’t make this lazy, lazy take.
In the entire history of the sport – hell, the entire history of ALL sports – there is not a single coach who went undefeated after signing a contract extension.
Do not think of this contract extension as something that guarantees extra success in 2025. Rhule can’t get an advance on his contract to sign a tackle out of the portal before the USC game. The extension is an investment in the belief that – in the big picture – Rhule is moving this program in the right direction. It does not guarantee that the program won’t take the occasional step back game to game. Teams lose. Minnesota-esque clunkers happen too. If we’re being brutally honest, Nebraska going 0-4 in November is not outside the realm of possibility.
These things happen. And in the mega conference, semi-professional world of college football in 2025 and beyond, they will happen more frequently.
If NFL style parity is not already here, it is undoubtedly coming soon. Aside from the upper crust of college football (i.e., Ohio State), the days of teams consistently winning 10+ games a year are ending. I don’t fully know what a realistic expectation is for Nebraska in this new era (that is an entirely separate conversation). I can assure you that expectation should no longer the championship-or-bust 1990s or even the Tom Osborne 1980s (9-10 wins, first or second place in the conference, and January 1 bowl game). There WILL be losses and down years, regardless of who the coach is. Take a look at the future schedules. The amount of easy conference games is far, far less than it was in 1985, or even 2005.
The sooner fans understand and accept this new reality, the happier we’ll be during the season. Penn State, LSU, and others who are running their coaches out of town are about to learn this the hard way.
The extension eliminates potential distractions and sends a clear message that Nebraska intends to compete for championships.
If you want to tell me that the initial wave of Penn State rumors caused a distraction that played a role in Nebraska’s meltdown at Minnesota, I won’t argue. The speculation threatened to be a cloud hanging over the program for the rest of the season.
As I wrote after the Minnesota game, “the Rhule to PSU rumors are not going away until a) Penn State hires somebody who is not Matt Rhule, or b) Troy Dannen announces a raise / extension / system to provide the financial support Rhule discussed.”
That cloud was only going to grow bigger and darker. As you know, Nebraska travels to Happy Valley in a few weeks. The Huskers have a bye week before the trip, which meant an extra week for speculation, rumors, and distractions.
Now, with the Penn State job effectively off the table, Nebraska can move forward. Rhule has sent a clear message that Nebraska is where he wants to be, and where he believes he can win a championship. The timing of the announcement – right before Rhule’s weekly appearance on the Pat McAfee Show and prior to a game with dozens of recruits in town – was no coincidence. Rhule sells his program – and Nebraska in general – like no coach since Bob Devaney.
Nebraska has once again won the press conference. Now it is on Rhule to win games.
I don’t know what to say to the Rhule skeptics.
I believe it is undeniable that Nebraska is progressing under Matt Rhule. Darn near everything – talent, athleticism, culture, assistants, coordinators, and more have improved year over year. And yet, my timeline is full of people telling me that Nebraska should be farther along or that they shouldn’t be in (and winning) close games.
The whole “greatest 3-9 team of all time” schtick masked the fact that Nebraska was one of the worst power conference programs in the country when Rhule took over. In the five years before Rhule arrived (2018-2022), the only power conference teams with fewer wins than Nebraska (19) were Vandy, Rutgers. Arizona, and Kansas. NU was tied for 65th with Colorado. From 2023 through last Saturday, NU’s 18 wins are tied for 36th in the P4.
It hasn’t been flawless,* but Rhule has a plan – based on his successes at Temple and Baylor – and he’s executing it. Mistakes that were routinely made in Year 1 are not seen nearly as often – if at all – in Year 3.
*There are valid concerns out there about the makeup of the original staff, NU’s offensive philosophy, development on the lines, and game management… to name a few.
We can – and should – debate what benchmarks are needed for the rebuild to be deemed complete, but I think we’ll agree Nebraska isn’t there …yet.
There are gaps and deficiencies on this team. If you’ve read anything I’ve written this season, you’ll know that I have never denied that. If your judgment of Rhule is based solely on his record, lack of prestige wins, or the gigantic turd they left on the field in Minneapolis, I can understand why you are skeptical. But that is such a short-sighted way to view where this program has been, where it is at, and hopefully is going.
Nobody – not Rhule, Dannen, me, or anybody else – can guarantee that this contract will have a happy ending. But given the choice between this and starting over (yet again), I’ll pick this every day of the week.
Rhule is not perfect, but the growth is easy to see if you’re willing to look. I think he’s the right guy for this program right now, and am thrilled that his rebuild is going to remain on track.
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