Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season is in the rearview, punctuated by a Monday Night Football doubleheader. These are the 10 takeaways you need to know heading into Week 7 of the fantasy football season.
1) Cam Ward’s historic struggles
The Titans fired head coach Brian Callahan after a 1-5 start. He exits Tennessee with a 4-19 record, leaving behind the husk of a failed offense. Cam Ward’s play through six weeks has been as bad as it gets, according to the spreadsheets. He is currently dead last in EPA per play among all quarterbacks. He’s not just in last place this season, though. Since 2016, 108 quarterbacks have dropped back at least 250 times. Ward ranks 105th among them in EPA per play. ERA adjusted ELO is just a fancy way of saying a statistical measure of a quarterback’s skill, with adjustments made for the time period they were playing. Through six games, Cam Ward’s closest comparables via this measure are…concerning.
Note: The Thompson in question here is Skylar Thompson.
Ward still has plenty of time to turn things around and the coaching change could help, but I’m not exactly optimistic after six games.
2) Rico does it again
There was no way Rico Dowdle was going to follow up his 206-yard outing from Week 5 with anything close to that type of production in Week 6. Naturally, his rushing output tanked to…183 yards. And he made up the difference and then some with 56 yards and a touchdown through the air. He is fifth in the NFL in rushing yards despite ranking 19th in carries. Head coach Dave Canales is now leaving the door open for him to earn the starting job permanently.
Dowdle is top five in yards after contact per carry and rush yards over expected per carry this season. Chuba Hubbard, on the other hand, is 39th in YAC and 36th in RYOE.
Lawrence Jackson breaks down some key players whose stock is trending up and down after NFL Week 6.
3) Eagles flop again
Philly lost a close game to the Broncos two weeks ago. It’s a contest they shouldn’t lose, but at least a loss that is excusable. There are no excuses for their blowout loss to the Giants in Week 6, but there are plenty of explanations. One that I find most important to point out is their inability to move the chains on third-and-long. The Eagles have dropped back 33 times on third and seven or more to go. They have converted just seven first downs on these plays. The Eagles rank 24th in success rate and 19th in EPA per play on third-and-long. Their ground game has nothing to add on similar plays. Philly has the second-most rush attempts on third-and-long (11). They did not move the chains once on those carries, including two Hurts scrambles. Jalen Hurts is struggling to pass the ball when defenses know it’s coming and the impending threat of a pass hasn’t created scrambling lanes for him to move the chains either.
4) Baker Mayfield’s deep ball
Liam Coen took the air out of the football in Tampa Bay last year. Mayfield went from a deep throw rate of 13.1 percent in 2023 under Dave Canales to 8.8 percent in 2024, Coen’s first and only year as the offensive coordinator. This wasn’t a problem because Mayfield executed Coen’s quick-passing game to perfection, but it changed the calculus for players like Mike Evans. In 2025, Mayfield is up to a league-leading 16.4 percent deep throw rate. He is completing 44 percent of his deep shots at 16 YPA. Those marks rank 12th and 6th, respectively. Mayfield’s eight passing touchdowns on these attempts are twice as many as the No. 2 passer. Emeka Egbula has been the primary beneficiary of this so far, but the rookie appears to be out with a hamstring injury for a few weeks. Chris Godwin is also out for at least one more week, while Mike Evans looks likely to return for Week 7 against the Lions. Detroit has given up the third-most explosive passing plays this year, if you were wondering.
5) Seahawks backfield check-in
Kenneth Walker has three carries inside the five this year compared to seven for Zach Charbonnet. That split moves to 1-7 when looking at just games when both backs were active. Charbonnet has out-snapped Walker in four of five contests and has out-carried him three times. Walker is averaging 9.1 expected fantasy points per game when Charbonnet is active. That would be good for the RB37 on the year.
Walker isn’t even an RB2 as long as he is splitting the backfield with Charbonnet.
6) JSN makes the case for WR1 overall
With Puka Nacua likely out for Week 7, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has moved into pole position for the WR1 overall ranking. He trails only Puka in fantasy points per game (21.4) and is just as good as him in the advanced numbers. JSN’s mark of 4.4 yards per route run is a full yard higher than Nacua at 3.4. Smith-Njigba is being targeted on 34 percent of his routes, a mark that trails only Nacua and is higher than the No. 3 wide receiver (Drake London) by five percent. No receiver is coming close to matching his 37 percent target share. Only Tyreek Hill and Malik Nabers — both of whom are done for the year — have higher air yards shares than Smith-Njigba (48 percent).
7) Falcons stay hot post-bye
Michael Penix was the QB31 in EPA per play and the QB35 in CPOE heading into Week 4. He was, by all accounts, one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL during that small sample. Penix finally showed the upside Falcons fans had been waiting to see in Week 4 with 313 yards and two touchdown passes in a win over the Commanders. The former No. 8 overall pick stayed hot coming out of Atlanta’s Week 5 bye with 250 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons’ upset of the Bills. In his latest three-week (two-game) stretch, Penix is the QB8 in EPA per play. Other sources of data are less favorable to him. PFF still has him as the QB24 in passing grade in those three weeks and he sits at 22nd in CPOE. Still, things are at least trending in the right direction for Penix after a disastrous start.
8) Dart gets it done on the ground
Three quarterbacks in NFL history have rushed for more than 50 yards in each of their first three starts:
- Lamar Jackson
- Jalen Hurts
- Jaxson Dart
Only 11 passers have even hit that mark twice in their first three starts. Much like the previous two quarterbacks to accomplish this feat, Dart’s passing game is a work in progress. He has topped out at 202 passing yards. PFF has him graded as their No. 31 passer and he ranks 30th in EPA per play when excluding scrambles. The rushing value, however, is so immense that Dart will push for a QB1 ranking even before we see him find his stride as a passer.
9) Defensive matchups to target
The Cowboys and Bengals have become the premier teams to target with opposing fantasy players. Dallas leads the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and wide receivers. Cincinnati leads the league in points allowed to running backs and tight ends. They aren’t just marginal leaders either. Dallas has a four-point gap between them and the No. 2 team in points allowed to wideouts. They are also lapping the field in points allowed to QBs. The Bengals, on the other hand, are more than three points per game ahead of the No. 2 team against running backs. The tight end race is actually a close one. To put a bow on things: Jaylen Warren is in a smash spot versus the Bengals this week and Deebo Samuel projects for monster numbers against Dallas if Terry McLaurin remains out.
10) Signs of life from Matthew Golden
Golden moved into a full-time slot role in Week 4, running 75 percent of his routes from the slot versus the Cowbots, and set season-highs across the board with five catches for 58 yards and six targets. He ran 61 percent of his routes from the slot last week — his second-highest slot rate of the year — and again set a season-high in receiving yards, this time at 86 yards. Golden was actually productive from both the slot and out wide in Week 6. He has earned targets at a far higher clip out of the slot this year, but his efficiency doesn’t change much based on where he has lined up. The explanation here might be as simple as the Packers are trying to get him more involved as of late, likely because of the loss of Jayden Reed. That has resulted in more slot usage, but it has also meant more first-read looks in general. His first read target rate is up to 17 percent over his past two games compared to 13 percent in his first three contests. The looming return of Christian Watson could throw a wrench in Golden’s progression, but fantasy managers should consider him a hold after two modestly successful weeks.
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