A blueprint for how the Penguins survive during Sidney Crosby’s absence

Sidney Crosby won’t play for at least four weeks because of a lower-body injury, widely presumed to be a strained knee.

The most frightening two words contained in that prognosis are “at least.”

The Penguins were five points safe in a playoff berth when NHL play resumed Wednesday night. How can they best survive Crosby’s absence?

It helps to realize approximately what’s needed.

The Penguins had 26 games remaining going into New Jersey’s visit on Thursday. They had 70 points.

Last season, 91 points grabbed third place in the Metropolitan Division as well as the Eastern Conference’s second and final wild card.

Splitting the remaining points — getting 26 of a possible 52 — would give the Penguins 96 points. That number seems a safe bet for the postseason.

The schedule is tightly packed, with the Penguins playing 17 games in March. But every team is yoked by such frequency.

Three of the Penguins’ first six games back are against the Eastern Conference’s bottom three teams: At home against the Devils on Thursday, at the New York Rangers on Saturday and at home against Philadelphia on March 7.

Related

• Sidney Crosby remains confident in the Penguins’ playoff hopes as he lands on injured reserve
• Mark Madden: Jack Hughes should jump from golden goal to NHL’s golden goose
• Penguins defenseman Sam Girard acclimates to new surroundings
 

Getting at least six points out of those first six games back would bode well. Staggering to two or three points could trigger certain realizations about Crosby’s absence.

The Penguins need to still be in a playoff spot when Crosby returns.

Now comes the sexy part:

Can the Penguins make a trade? How might they shuffle their lineup?

A big trade seems unlikely, and should.

Acquiring star winger Jason Robertson from Dallas has been mooted in this space because the Stars’ cap limitations might keep him from re-upping.

But Robertson is a restricted free agent at season’s end. The Stars still have control and, as a legit Stanley Cup contender, will absolutely not trade Robertson before the NHL’s March 6 trade deadline. Dallas will worry about that situation later.

President of hockey ops/GM Kyle Dubas has a plan for the Penguins, not just to scratch and claw into this year’s playoffs but to build a championship team.

This isn’t about short-term stupid. Leave that to the Steelers.

So, sacrificing significant future to do better now is unlikely.

Even with Crosby, the Penguins would have difficulty adding enough to ensure doing more than winning a playoff round.

If practice and talk reflect accurately, winger Rickard Rakell will shift to center and play between Bryan Rust and just-promoted rookie Avery Hayes. That enables the Penguins to keep intact their other three lines, which have been playing well.

If that doesn’t work, here’s my three-part plan.

• Move rookie Ben Kindel to Crosby’s usual spot centering Rust and Rakell.

• Trade goaltender Stuart Skinner for a third-line center.

• Summon goalie Sergei Murashov from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.

Kindel is having a very good rookie campaign, with 14 goals and 13 assists in 53 games. He plays a solid 200-foot game and has hockey acumen and cool beyond his years.

It’s unfair to ask an 18-year-old to replace Crosby.

But somebody has to. Kindel is the best option.

If Rakell goes back to wing, the Penguins need a center.

It shouldn’t be Evgeni Malkin.

Malkin is a career center, but is currently doing fine at wing and forms a potent, overachieving line with Tommy Novak in the middle and Egor Chinakhov on the other wing.

At 39, Malkin is a liability in the neutral zone when he plays center. He produces at wing, as witnessed by 13 goals and 31 assists in 41 games. Leave Malkin there.

So, trade Skinner for a third-line center.

I’m assuming demand for Skinner, perhaps incorrectly so.

But Skinner backstopped Edmonton to the last two Stanley Cup finals, has played decent since arriving in Pittsburgh — he’s 8-4-1 with a 2.72 goals-against average and an .887 save percentage — and there’s not a lot of even above-average goaltending in the NHL.

I have zero complaint with Skinner.

But he’s in the last year of his contract. Murashov and Artus Silovs will be the Penguins’ goaltending tandem next season. (Silovs is a restricted free agent at season’s end, but he’s unlikely to depart.)

Murashov has dominated the American Hockey League with the organization’s Wilkes-Barre/Scranton farm club, posting a 2.13 goals-against average and a .924 save percentage.

Murashov is 21. Promoting him is an educated risk. He doesn’t have Skinner’s experience but brings more talent and a higher upside.

The Penguins are much sounder defensively under new coach Dan Muse. You can always button up more according to score and situation, but don’t betray your attacking DNA.

Don’t rein in Erik Karlsson or Kris Letang. With Crosby out, they need to have the puck more and produce more.

Rely on youth more.

Kindel is excellent. Hayes is in a good patch, having scored two goals in his NHL debut at Buffalo Feb. 5 and two AHL hat tricks since. Give Rutger McGroarty more minutes.

Kindel, Hayes and McGroarty were bred to be Penguins. Murashov, too. There’s a bond. Let that energy light up the ice, and the room.

Surviving in Crosby’s absence won’t be easy.

But it’s doable.