Vanderbilt is now 7-1 and ranked inside the top 10 for the first time since 1947. If the Commodores beat the Longhorns, they would be 8-1 for the first time since 1941. Texas, at 6-2, is fighting to stay in the playoff conversation, leaving fans clinging to hope that a defense is enough to carry them.
One team is proving itself week after week. The other — Texas — may need to rediscover itself offensively if Arch Manning sits. Saturday in Austin will say plenty about which story keeps going.
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 9 Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 20 Texas Longhorns
Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN
Line: Texas -2.5
Money line: Texas (-145), Vanderbilt (+125)
Over/Under: 45.5 (O -105, U -115)
What does the Texas offense look like without Arch Manning?
It hasn’t been pretty but through eight games, Manning has accounted for nearly all of Texas’ offense, while masking a lot of inefficiency underneath. This has offense averaging 5.4 yards per play and is ranked outside the top 60 in touchdowns scored, with stats inflated from a 55-0 blowout over winless Sam Houston, and they are leaning heavily on short fields and defensive stops.
With Manning in concussion protocol, Matthew Caldwell steps in as the steady hand. He’s been everywhere from Jacksonville State to Gardner-Webb to Troy, and now Texas. He’s accurate and safe but that’s also a limitation because the Longhorns’ offense shifts from dynamic to deliberate. With only 11 attempts at Texas, we have to look back at his Troy data from last year. There was a steep drop when pressure, completing just 43% of passing and averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. The Texas offensive line? Probably the worst unit on the field. The Vanderbilt pass rush? Can generate enough pressure to disrupt.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian will likely lean on quick throws, tight end safety nets and early-down runs to protect Caldwell. The playbook shrinks without Manning’s elusiveness, so expect fewer attempts at explosive plays.
Against a Commodores defense that tackles well and limits red zone success, it’s hard to see this offense pushing points unless the defense or special teams provides help.
Betting consideration: UNDER 45.5
The total opened 45.5 and still hasn’t moved, but the spread has. Texas dropped from -3 to -1.5, a sign of respect for Vandy’s stability. That line shift tells you there is confidence in the Longhorns offense fading without Manning, but the game total says belief in the defense remains intact.
Vandy is one of the most efficient teams in the country, averaging seven yards per play (tied for sixth in the nation) and scoring touchdowns on 79% of red zone trips, also sixth best. But efficiency doesn’t always translate to pace. The Commodores run just 60 plays per game, third fewest in the FBS, relying on long drives across the country rather than explosive volume. That means the rhythm bleeds clock and limits possessions, which matters against the Texas defense that thrives in these grind-it-out games.
And that’s the strength Texas has to lean on in order to win this game. The Longhorns are top five in run defense, complemented with a top 15 pass rush. They generate a smidge below the pressures of Vandy, but they get home a lot more with sacks. Disrupt an offense enough and you have a recipe for longer field goal drives rather than six points.
Plus, with Caldwell starting as QB, Texas could be more conservative, short-passing to avoid mistakes, and not chase points.
Both teams prefer methodical tempo and rely on field position to win. Add in Vanderbilt’s defense allowing just 17 total touchdowns this season, tied for the 10th fewest nationally, and Texas’ own red zone discipline, and it’s easy to see a clock-heavy game where both settle for threes. The UNDER fits the market drift — low volume, high control, minimal fireworks.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
-
Vanderbilt is 10-3 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season, best in FBS (min. 10 games).
-
Top 10 teams are 12-21 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season. That becomes 3-15 ATS when facing a team ranked lower than them.
-
Vanderbilt is 9-3 ATS in conference play since the start of last season, best in the SEC.
-
Texas is 2-10 ATS when favored over a Top 10 team over the past 20 seasons, worst in FBS (min. 5 games).
-
Texas is 8-15 ATS in ranked matchups since 2020, third worst in FBS (min. 10 games). Only Boise State (4-11 ATS) and Clemson (5-10 ATS) are worse.
First Appeared on
Source link
