Breaking Down Every Contender for This Year’s Title

At the start of each NBA season, there are, realistically, about 10 teams that could make a run at a championship. By the time the All-Star break hits, those teams have made themselves known. The contenders have risen above the pretenders. The statistical profiles have enough of a sample size to be considered reliable. There’s always the chance of a team’s season getting derailed by an unpredictable twist of events, but by and large, the shortlist of squads who will have a legitimate chance to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June is obvious at this stage. NBA history helps pinpoint how many of those teams there really are, too. 

To date there have been 79 NBA championship teams. Of those 79 teams, 78 were a top-four seed in that year’s postseason—the only exception is the ‘94-’95 Rockets, famously the lone six-seed to win an NBA title. In today’s NBA, lower seeds have a better chance of making a run than ever; the talent level is much higher and the league’s collective love of three-pointers introduces a variance that wasn’t present for most of playoff basketball history. Two of the five Finals since 2020 have featured teams (Heat in ’23, Mavs in ’24) lower than the fourth seed. But the historical trend is clear: to have a genuine shot at a title, boasting one of the four best records in the conference is a must. That means each playoff begins with eight teams that history strongly favors as Finals contenders. 

That does not mean there are only eight teams who can win as of today, however. There’s much to be determined with the All-Star break behind us. Most of the playoff seeds are still up for grabs and the games yet to be played will tell us a lot about the chances of the title hopefuls. However, much of the league can also be safely crossed off in this space. The tanking teams have made their intentions clear by now and the teams occupying play-in spots have severe enough flaws that putting up a good fight against the top dogs is difficult to imagine. It’s really just the top six seeds in each conference who can realistically talk themselves into a title run. 

With All-Star Weekend now in the rearview, it seems like a good time as any to check in on those 12 teams that fancy themselves title contenders this year. Here are the NBA championship power rankings as the final third of the season commences. 

NBA championship power rankings

12. 76ers
Record entering Feb. 24:  31–26

The title case: When Joel Embiid is healthy and playing his best ball, the 76ers are pretty good. The offense is notably better with him on the court and gives Tyrese Maxey the scoring he needs from his teammates for Philadelphia to hang with quality opponents; the 4.97 net rating the Sixers boast in Embiid’s minutes this season would rank just outside the top-10 of all NBA teams so far. The regression of the star center’s defense has been rather concerning, but the chances he pops off for a 30-point night is worth such downsides. 

The problem, of course, is that Embiid cannot be relied upon to be healthy. The former MVP has played in 31 of the 76ers’ 57 games so far and hasn’t played since before the All-Star break due to lower-body injuries. Maxey and VJ Edgecombe look to be a future star pairing in the backcourt, but aren’t quite enough to power the Sixers past true contenders when Embiid is sidelined. 

11. Raptors
Record entering Feb. 24: 34–23

The title case: The Raptors are an elite defensive team with just enough perimeter scoring to be considered contenders. Toronto ranks just outside the top-five in defensive rating on the season. Offensively the Raptors do not thrive, ranking in the bottom third of all teams in points per game; they are at least led by a true 20-ppg scorer in Brandon Ingram, who was named to his second All-Star team after a strong first half. 

The bones of a contending team are there, but Toronto doesn’t have everything it takes to make a serious run. The team’s center rotation has suffered throughout the year from Jakob Poeltl’s absence, and deadline acquisition Trayce Jackson-Davis isn’t going to fix that. In the grander scheme the Raps can only win so many games by trying to drag other teams into a rockfight with intense defensive pressure. Unless Scottie Barnes can make the leap into a full-fledged offensive option in the postseason, Toronto is on the outside looking in on the championship picture. 

10. Lakers
Record entering Feb. 24: 34–22

The title case: The Lakers boast starpower. Most opponents cannot handle the full might of Luka Dončić, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves. The trio boasts ludicrous shot-making and creation skills against any opponent; how effective they are often comes down to whether their teammates are making their open shots. When they are, Los Angeles is quite the tough out. 

But as the season goes on, it’s harder and harder to envision this Lakers team making any real noise in the playoffs. They are bad defensively, offering little resistance on the perimeter and in the paint. The three stars mentioned above are all poor defenders at this stage. As a team, the Lakers are awful on the boards, ranking 28th this season in rebounds per game. Consequently, when Los Angeles isn’t shooting well, there’s no recourse. No other strength the roster can turn to to win games. An electric scoring stretch from any of their trio of superstars could win a postseason game or two, but the Lakers seem fated for an early exit given the specific weaknesses of this roster. 

9. Celtics
Record entering Feb. 24: 37–19

The title case: The Celtics are an exceptionally well-coached team led by a true star in Jaylen Brown. That combination gives any NBA team a pretty high floor. Boston has overcome the absence of Jayson Tatum, maintaining its place as an elite offensive team while working extremely hard as a group to put forth strong defensive efforts every night. Coach Joe Mazzulla has this team locked in and ready to play most nights, allowing the Celtics to punch above their weight every now and again while still throttling lesser opponents. 

There are cracks in the title case, though. The C’s defense is completely devoid of rim protection whenever starting center Neemias Queta sits and defensive rebounding has been a season-long issue that could rear its ugly head at very inopportune times come postseason. Tatum’s return is a massive swing factor here; for now the Celtics face long odds to win a title with the exploitable weaknesses high-level contenders will not hesitate to take advantage of. 

8. Cavaliers
Record entering Feb. 24: 36–22

The title case: The Cavaliers have the talent to compete for a title, that’s for sure. The trade deadline brought James Harden to Cleveland, where he now suits up alongside Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley. Between those three, the Cavs should check every box for championship contention: perimeter scoring, elite creation, and good defense on the backend to cover whatever mistakes Mitchell or Harden might make up front. In practice, it’s worked out well so far; Cleveland won five straight games after inserting Harden into the lineup, only suffering its first loss on Sunday. 

But historically speaking, teams that make that big of a roster change midseason do not win championships. Harden’s struggles in the postseason are well-documented, as are the Cavs’ in recent years. For as much as the Cavaliers have going for them, there’s a lot going against them too. How they shape up with Harden in the fold down the stretch will be very informative as far as their Finals chances go. 

7. Timberwolves
Record entering Feb. 24: 35–23

The title case: This Timberwolves roster is just as talented as last season with a better version of Anthony Edwards leading the way. Mike Conley’s falloff was unfortunate but Minnesota’s deadline acquisition of Ayo Dosunmu seems like it’ll patch that hole in the rotation. The Wolves made a Western Conference finals run last season and haven’t suffered any notable losses to the roster, so they should be ready to make another this season. Right?

On some nights, that’s obvious. On others, not so much. The Wolves have suffered some odd losses throughout the year and appear to suffer from a longtime sports-wide issue: playing down to their opponent. We’ve seen many teams deal with a similar problem after a deep playoff run and lock in once the postseason begins, so there’s no need to write the obituary on Minnesota’s season yet. But it’s difficult to place this team above serious title contenders given the inconsistent play. 

6. Rockets
Record entering Feb. 24: 34–21

The title case: The book has been out on the Rockets all year long and not much has really changed: Kevin Durant will score the ball, Alperen Şengün will help, and everyone else hits the boards while playing Ime Udoka’s signature brand of in-your-face defense. It worked like a charm for a while as Houston regularly outrebounded its opponents on the offensive glass, making up for the lack of perimeter scoring punch outside of KD. 

Lately it hasn’t worked so well. The Rockets are 4-4 in their last eight games with some ugly losses highlighted by borderline disastrous late-game execution. Such defeats in February don’t make or break a team’s championship hopes. But for Houston, these struggles reflect the very real concern that there is no offensive plan against set defenses beyond hoping Durant can make something happen. The Rockets are talented, but are too flawed in that regard to count on them scoring consistently in a playoff gauntlet. 

5. Knicks
Record entering Feb. 24: 37–21

The title case: The Knicks boast a very talented starting five that is quite difficult to stop offensively. Jalen Brunson is a proven No. 1 playoff option, and his pick-and-roll actions with Karl-Anthony Towns put defenses in an impossible position. When the unit is clicking, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges are terrors on the wing. Mitchell Robinson is ready to sub in at any given moment and demoralize opponents by grabbing every offensive rebound in his area code. New York is skilled on both ends and shouldn’t be quite as worn down entering the playoffs with Mike Brown in charge instead of Tom Thibodeau. 

However, it is still undeniable that Brunson and Towns are a brutal playoff pairing defensively; Towns in particular has caught a lot of justified flak for his irreverent attitude towards that end of the floor this year. Bridges and Anunoby can disappear for games at a time offensively. Brown’s defensive schemes have led to some puzzling assignments for them, too. Given the highs and lows the Knicks have shown this year, there’s no team with a greater range of outcomes—it wouldn’t be shocking to see the orange and blue make a Finals run, nor would an early exit be all that surprising. 

4. Nuggets
Record entering Feb. 24: 36–22

The title case: The Nuggets are enjoying another vintage Nikola Jokić season and may roll into the postseason with a four-time MVP should he take home another at season’s end. As long as he’s healthy, Denver has a shot. Jamal Murray, enjoying his first All-Star campaign, could lead to an even better postseason for an already-proven playoff performer, and the leap taken by Peyton Watson is just the cherry on top of the sundae. They just barely lost to the Thunder last year and have gotten better this season.

The kicker for the Nuggets, more than any other team, is health. Jokić missed the first serious time of his career with a hyperextended knee and is dealing with an ankle injury right now. Aaron Gordon is dealing with an ongoing hamstring issue that’s plagued him all year long. Christian Braun missed a ton of time with an ankle injury and Watson is still weeks away from returning from his own hammy issue. If Denver can shake the injury bug when the postseason arrives, it’s a very dangerous squad. If not, there may not be enough firepower to get past the best teams of the West. 

3. Pistons
Record entering Feb. 24: 42–14

The title case: The Pistons are an excellent, physical, defensive squad with an MVP candidate leading the way offensively in Cade Cunningham. That’s a tried-and-true championship combination. Detroit boasts the best defense in the league this side of Oklahoma City and actually forces slightly more turnovers per game than this year’s Thunder. Jalen Duren’s All-Star leap has given the team a true centerpiece to man the middle on both ends. Above all, the Pistons have simply been great all year long; no pretenders can hold the top spot in the conference for as long as Detroit has. 

But as seen in the team’s loss to the Spurs on Monday, shooting is a big problem. San Antonio’s Devin Vassell made as many threes as the entire Pistons roster combined. Detroit is overly dependent on Cunningham to produce, and his teammates haven’t proven capable of picking up the slack most of this year. Nevertheless, the PIstons’ winning formula has worked great all season long and should translate very well to postseason play. 

2. Spurs
Record entering Feb. 24: 41–16

The title case: Victor Wembanyama. That’s the start and end of the Spurs’ case to win a title way ahead of schedule this year. The third-year All-Star has been a force unto himself since coming into the league, but figured out how to best apply his outrageous skillset to winning games this season. San Antonio’s supporting cast has proven ready to rise to the moment alongside him, as evidenced by the statement win against Detroit on Monday. The Spurs rank third in defensive rating and sixth in offensive rating, the statistical profile all genuine contenders bring to the table. This is a very good team with a possibly unlimited ceiling due to the generational superstar manning the middle—it’s not ridiculous to believe Wembanyama could get better down the stretch of the year. 

This is a very unseasoned roster, however. Only three members of the rotation have experienced playoff basketball. San Antonio is also middle-of-the-pack in regards to three-point shooting and lacks a big-bodied wing stopper despite the outsized efforts of Stephon Castle. There are flaws inherent in the roster construction. But at their best the Spurs can beat anybody. 

1. Thunder
Record entering Feb. 24: 44–14

The title case: The Thunder have fallen off the historic pace they set to kick off the year but the defending champs remain favorites to take home another title. Despite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams both missing games due to injury, OKC ranks first in defensive rating and fourth in offensive rating—the only team in the top-five of both categories. The depth has proven to be ridiculous with various backups taking turns winning games for coach Mark Daigneault. There’s little reason to doubt the Thunder’s ability to make another deep playoff run. 

However, health is growing to be a bit of a concern. Williams has played only 26 games and hasn’t played since Jan. 17 with a hamstring issue. Gilgeous-Alexander is out with an abdominal strain. Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso have all missed double-digit games. There’s a certain degree of championship hangover at play; accumulated bumps and bruises are part of playing more games than almost anybody else last year. Moreover the priority is to be ready in April, not February. But it’s still something to keep an eye on, especially if the Thunder enter the postseason having played only a few games with a fully healthy starting lineup. 

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