Steve Hilton and Katie Porter Lead Governor Race; Porter’s Favorability Underwater
A new Emerson College Polling survey of California voters finds 57% of likely voters support Proposition 50, to authorize temporary changes to the state congressional maps, while 37% oppose the proposition. Including undecided voters, the measure increases to 60% support, and 40% oppose.
“With less than two weeks until the California special election for Proposition 50, the measure looks likely to pass, with results again outside the poll’s margin of error,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Certain demographic groups that were hesitant to support the measure last month have come around to support Prop. 50, such as Black voters, whose support increased from 45% to 71%.”
Regardless of how Californians plan to vote, 56% of likely voters think the measure is a good idea while 44% think it is a bad idea. Compared to September, the number of likely voters who think the measure is a good idea increased four points from 52%, while those who say it is a bad idea decreased four points from 48%.
Among those who plan to vote “yes” on redistricting, 89% think it is a good idea, and 11% a bad idea. Among those who plan to vote no, 93% think it is a bad idea, and 7% a good idea.
Governor Newsom holds a 48% job approval rating and 41% disapproval among likely voters. President Donald Trump holds a 37% job approval rating and 60% disapproval.
Several key political figures’ favorability was tested in the survey, including Proposition 50 supporters and opponents. Proponent of Prop. 50, former President Barack Obama has a 62% favorability rating among California voters, and a 32% unfavorable rating. Opponent of Prop. 50, former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, holds a 43% favorable rating, and a 33% unfavorable rating. Tom Steyer, 2020 presidential candidate and proponent of Prop. 50 holds a 15% favorable rating, and 16% unfavorable.
Looking ahead to 2026, 16% support Republican Steve Hilton, 15% Democrat Katie Porter, and 11% Republican Chad Bianco. Five percent support Democrat Xavier Becerra and Antonio Villaraigosa, respectively. A plurality of voters (39%) are undecided.
Democratic support for Porter has not changed since the last Emerson survey, 22% in September and 23% in October support her candidacy, but independent voters’ support decreased from 16% for Porter in September to 11% this month.
Katie Porter holds a 26% favorable rating, and 35% unfavorable rating. Steve Hilton holds a 21% favorable rating, and 12% unfavorable. Chad Bianco holds a 19% favorable rating, and 14% unfavorable. Senator Alex Padilla holds a 40% favorable rating and 28% unfavorable rating.
The top issue for California voters continues to be the economy (30%) and housing affordability (26%), followed by threats to democracy (12%) and immigration (11%). When it comes to the top issue facing the country as a whole, 30% say the economy, 28% threats to democracy, and 13% immigration.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling California survey was conducted October 20-21, 2025. The sample of California likely voters, n=900, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.19 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting a voter list of cellphones via MMS-to-web text, with the voter list provided by Aristotle, MMS-to-web text of an opt-in probability panel of voters provided by the Consensus Panel, and additional online panel interviews provided by CINT. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College.
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