Champions League Draw 2025-26: Who Are the UCL Favourites After Knockout Stage Draw?

With Friday’s UEFA Champions League draw mapping paths to the final, the Opta supercomputer assesses each team’s chances of glory.

The draw for the knockout stages of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League has been made, and the paths to the final have been mapped out.

‘Easy’ or ‘tough’ draws will be debated, but ultimately to be the best, you’ll have to beat the best, with the two finalists due to battle for the biggest prize in European football in Budapest on 30 May.

The draw is now set from the last 16 through to the final, and so through the magic/mathematics of the Opta supercomputer, we can discern who the favourites are to lift the big, shiny trophy in Hungary.

Champions League 2025-26 – Last-16 Draw

Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea
Galatasaray vs Liverpool
Real Madrid vs Manchester City
Atalanta vs Bayern Munich
Newcastle vs Barcelona
Atlético Madrid vs Tottenham
Bodø/Glimt vs Sporting CP
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal

Prior to the draw, Arsenal were favourites with the Opta supercomputer to go all the way and win their first ever European Cup/Champions League.

The Gunners are leading the Premier League title race this season, and also finished first in the league phase of the Champions League. Their first-place finish means they have an advantage in the knockouts: they will be at home in the second leg of every round until the final, should they get that far.

They have also been handed quite a favourable draw. Up next in the last 16 are Bayer Leverkusen, 26th in the Opta Power Rankings; only two other teams left in the competition are ranked lower, including Bodø/Glimt, who Arsenal could get in the quarter-finals if the Norwegians can get past Sporting CP.

As a result, Arsenal remain favourites with the supercomputer, winning the whole competition in 27.4% of its 10,000 simulations.

Behind them, Bayern Munich are heavily fancied to do well also. The Bundesliga champions have been in sensational form this season and were given a last-16 tie with Atalanta. La Dea are the only remaining Serie A side left in the Champions League following their impressive comeback against another Bundesliga side, Borussia Dortmund, in the play-offs.

Vincent Kompany’s men could then play either Real Madrid or Manchester City in the quarter-finals in a potential blockbuster tie, which may be why they only won the Champions League in 14.3% of sims.

Speaking of Real Madrid vs Man City, this will be the fifth consecutive season the two clubs have faced off in the Champions League knockout stage, the first fixture to do so in the competition’s history.

City are the favourites to go through from that one (64.3%), and have already beaten Los Blancos in the league phase this season (2-1). Pep Guardiola’s men are fourth favourites with the supercomputer to go all the way (10.8%). Real Madrid have won a record 15 European Cup/Champions League titles but only added to that in 2.8% of simulations, making them ninth favourites.

Despite the potential to face Paris Saint-Germain in the quarters and possibly one of Madrid, City or Bayern in the semis, Liverpool are still looked on favourably by the supercomputer.

Arne Slot’s side will take on Galatasaray in the last 16, and though they did lose 1-0 to the Turkish side in the league phase, the Reds are heavy favourites to go through over two legs (82.3% with the supercomputer). Galatasaray ultimately got past Juventus in the play-off round but almost made a mess of the second leg against 10 men before getting over the line in extra-time. They are also the lowest-ranked team in the Opta Power Rankings among the last 16 (47th).

Liverpool won the Champions League in 12.8% of sims, while Galatasaray won it the least often out the remaining teams (0.2%).

Barcelona will face Newcastle United again after beating them 2-1 in the league phase at St. James’ Park, before potentially facing Atlético Madrid or Tottenham in the quarters and possibly Arsenal in the semis.

Hansi Flick’s men fell short at the last-four stage last season but overcame everyone to lift the trophy in Budapest in 7.7% of simulations. Newcastle shocked Europe to do so in 4.7%, actually more often than PSG and Real Madrid.

Defending champions PSG had to get past three Premier League sides to go all the way last season, and they could take on four this time. They face Chelsea in the last 16; after that, they could tussle with Liverpool in the quarters, Man City in the semis, and Arsenal or Tottenham in the final. Granted, there are a lot of hypotheticals there.

The supercomputer is surprisingly harsh on their chances of retaining the trophy (4.6%), though the fact they only just sneaked past fellow Ligue 1 side Monaco in the play-offs perhaps was a factor. They are also on the tougher side of the draw, as are Chelsea, of course.

Liam Rosenior’s young side have their work cut out, though they did ease past PSG in last summer’s FIFA Club World Cup final. The supercomputer saw the Blues add the Champions League to their trophy cabinet in 6.9% of sims.

Atlético Madrid vs Tottenham should be an interesting tie, with Spurs desperately needing more European joy to rescue another dreadful domestic campaign. Igor Tudor did get his team past Diego Simeone’s in 46.3% of sims, but he was only able to guide Spurs to another European trophy 1.2% of the time. Atlético went all the way in a slightly better 2% of sims.

Bodø/Glimt have been the surprise package of this season’s Champions League, beating Man City and Atlético in the league phase to sneak into the play-offs, before dispatching last season’s runners-up Inter in sensational fashion.

Kjetil Knutsen’s men have Sporting CP in the last 16, before either taking on Arsenal or Bayer Leverkusen in the quarter-finals should their remarkable journey continue. Bodø/Glimt won the Champions League in 0.4% of simulations, which would probably be one of the most monumental upsets in the history of the sport, but what a time to be alive it would be.

Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.