Critical fantasy football insights for Week 14: The Jordan Love to Christian Watson era

Every week brings a new surprise. On Thanksgiving, Joe Burrow and the Bengals far outplayed Lamar Jackson (who, dare we say, has looked benchable) and the Ravens. On Sunday, Carolina bested the Rams, and Bryce Young finished with the highest passer rating in Week 13. In our final column, we’ll look at players who can help you (and hurt you) in Week 14 and the fantasy playoffs.

To assist in the search for those answers and more, we discuss the data behind the results, shocks, surprises, stalwarts — touches, air yards, team target percentage and more — the predictive stats that can show how often a player is being utilized by his NFL team to get ahead of future trends. Broken down by skill position, this report analyzes the meaningful metrics that can help you with the crucial waiver wire and start/sit decisions that will help pave your road to the fantasy playoffs. We’ve included the full usage report for additional research in each positional breakdown.

Let’s get to it!

Stats are via TruMedia unless otherwise stated. Players must be rostered at or under 65% on Yahoo for waiver-wire and streaming consideration. 

* Denotes a suggested waiver wire addition or streamer for the coming week.

Quarterbacks

The Elite QB fantasy football draft strategy may be a thing of the past after this season. Outside of Patrick Mahomes, the top-five finishers at the position this past week are names largely unexpected, with Jordan Love, Marcus Mariota, Bryce Young and Trevor Lawrence staking their unlikely claims. On the season, only two of the top-10 quarterbacks were top-five draft picks by ADP ahead of the season, while Mahomes, Drake Maye, Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford have proven that waiting on the QB position can still provide massive returns.

Spotlight

• Jordan Love, GB | 0.23 Expected Points Added Per Dropback (EPA/DB): After a 7.06 fantasy-point performance in Week 12, Love (79% rostered) bounced back in Week 13, finishing as QB2 with 25.76 points. While the 27-year-old is averaging 16.51 points per game, he has scored 20+ points on four occasions and will face a flimsy Bears defense in Week 14. Love also finished Week 13 fourth in EPA/DB (0.40) on 30 attempts. Bryce Young led the category, but on only 20 attempts. Expected points added per dropback is one of the most comprehensive advanced metrics measuring QB success. It calculates the expected points a team will likely score from any position based on down, distance, field position and more. EPA/DB is the change in those expectations from before the play to after it. On the year, Love ranks second in the metric behind only MVP candidate Drake Maye (among QBs with at least three starts). Among QBs with at least one start, Love is also top-10 in yards per attempt (YPA) with a healthy 7.7, percentage of passes off-target (OffTgt%) at only 8%, sacked percentage (largely a QB stat), passer rating (PsrRt), completions of more than 20 yards and third- and fourth-down conversion rate. He’s an efficient passer who passes the eye test (unlike Bryce Young), though he can be inconsistent week to week. Based on adjusted points allowed, he has the fifth-best rest-of-season schedule, with Denver (Week 15), the only strong defense left on his slate. Otherwise, he gets Chicago twice and a Baltimore team that surrendered 32 points to the Bengals.

Additional usage notes

• *Trevor Lawrence, JAX | 111.5 PsrRt in Week 13: Lawrence achieved his highest passer rating of the year in Week 13 (while still completing only 59.3% of passes). Lawrence may not be the generational talent he was touted as, but it seems head coach Liam Coen and the arrival of Jakobi Meyers have helped him. Meyers isn’t prone to drops and hasn’t had more than two in a season since 2022; he’s never exceeded four. For comparison, Brian Thomas dropped seven in 2024 and has dropped nine in 2025. Lawrence’s career-long struggles can’t just be placed on his receivers, but Meyers may be a stabilizing force. Lawrence hasn’t scored fewer than 15 fantasy points since Week 10, and he’s scored 15 or more in 8-of-12 games this season. He’s a solid streaming option in Week 14, when he’ll go against a struggling Colts team and Daniel Jones’ broken fibula.
• Drake Maye, NE | 8.8 YPA: Generally, 7.5 yards or more per passing attempt is considered to be the goal for a high-level, efficient starter. Maye’s 8.8 mark ranks second among QBs with at least one start, putting him at the elite/MVP level. The MVP award is in Maye’s sights, especially after another emphatic win on Monday night. Maye is top-three in fantasy points, completion percentage (Comp%), passing yards, Comp20+, passer rating and EPA/DB, among other metrics. He’s led the Pats to an 11-2 record and a spot atop the AFC East. Further, while he’s on a bye in Week 14, Maye has the third-best fantasy playoffs schedule, based on adjusted points allowed.
• Bryce Young, CAR | 147.1 PsrRt in Week 13: While Young had himself a game with the highest passer rating in Week 13, a 75.0 Comp% and 22.54 fantasy points, he only attempted 20 passes. His three TD passes were excellently placed, but Young still threw 15% of only 20 passes off-target and struggles to pass the eye test. He can look good on the run at times, but his Designed Rush Rate (DesignedRush%) was 0.0 in Week 13 and is only 0.5 on the season. If we’re honest, head coach Dave Canales and Carolina’s ground game (Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard) deserve credit for most wins. On a bye this week, Young should be left on waivers. While the second-year QB will occasionally pop, his floor is the 1.56 fantasy points he scored against New Orleans in Week 10.

Running backs

Christian McCaffrey finished among the RB1 class in Week 13, the 11th time he’s done that in 13 games. Now that he’s led you to the doorstep of the fantasy playoffs, he’ll take a week off to observe his bye in Week 14. Also among those out this week at RB, TreyVeyon Henderson/Rhamondre Stevenson, Rico Dowdle/Chuba Hubbard and Tyrone Tracy/Devin Singletary — oh, NFL, you are so cruel and clearly have no issue biting one of the hands that feeds you!

Spotlight

• *Kyle Monangai, CHI | 14.42 Fantasy PPR Points Per Game (PPR/G): I’m sure Week 13 will go a long way toward fantasy managers finally waking up to the idea of Monangai being a fixture in starting lineups. Long talked about as the “David Montgomery” piece in Ben Johnson’s Chicago backfield, fantasy managers have been slow to embrace Monangai as such — despite being the RB14 in total PPR points scored at the RB position for the previous four weeks, Monangai was rostered in just over half of Yahoo and ESPN leagues in Week 13, with only around 10% of those teams starting Monangai when he shredded the Eagles on Thanksgiving with 130 rushing and a TD on 22 carries. By comparison, Montgomery was averaging 5.15 fewer fantasy points per game than Monangai in the four weeks preceding Week 13, yet he was over 90% rostered in ESPN and Yahoo leagues and was right at 50% started in those leagues in Week 13. Monangai is RB11 since Week 9 — he should be afforded that respect when you fill out your lineups this week.

Week 13 usage notes

• Jordan Mason, MIN | 6.6 Yards Per Carry (YPC) from Weeks 10-13: Over the past month, Mason is behind only Jahmyr Gibbs in YPC among RBs with at least 20 carries in that span. From a usage standpoint, Mason has taken a backseat to Aaron Jones over these past four weeks, though Jones averaged just 4.0 YPC on 40 carries in this timeframe compared to Mason’s 6.6 mark on 24 carries. In Week 13, a shoulder injury knocked Jones out of action at Seattle in the third quarter, and he’s likely to be questionable against Washington this coming week. The Commanders rate as one of the top six matchups for an opposing running back in fantasy, based on adjusted points allowed. Mason could have solid RB2 upside if Jones sits in Week 14.
• Zach Charbonnet, SEA | 5.07 Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YCPt/Rsh) in Week 13: Among running backs with at least 10 carries in Week 13, only Bam Knight and Bijan Robinson delivered a better YCPt/Rsh mark than Charbonnet. What makes Charbonnet’s feat even more impressive is that he also had the lowest Yards Before Contact Per Attempt mark (-1.36) among the same RB sample, meaning Charbonnet was getting hit on average more than a yard behind the line of scrimmage on his carries. Forget the notion that Kenneth Walker is pulling away in this backfield platoon. Sure, he’s in the lead, but Charbonnet performs a valuable role for the team as a game clock milkman. In the second and fourth quarters combined, Charbonnet has a 89-67 carry advantage over Walker, despite K9 having played one more game. In the first and third quarters combined, Walker outpaces Charbonnet by a significant margin (93 to 38). To put it in baseball terms, Walker is often the starter and Charbonnet is the closer.

Wide receivers

It finally happened. They say you can’t keep a good man down, but the Minnesota Vikings finally figured out how to keep Jaxon Smith-Njigba under control. Before his 4.30-point, WR71 effort against the Vikings, JSN was riding a streak of seven-straight top-10 WR finishes in PPR scoring. He hadn’t previously finished outside the top 25. Among the other major Week 13 disappointments at the WR position were Justin Jefferson, Michael Pittman, Rome Odunze, Zay Flowers and Amon-Ra St. Brown (left game with injury), who all finished outside the top 85 receivers in scoring for the week. On the brighter side…

Spotlight

• *Christian Watson, GB | 10 Targets in Week 13: What’s the big deal about achieving a target level that 82 other players have reached at least once this season? Well, for Watson (54% rostered), Week 13 marked the first time in his career he’d ever been targeted 10+ times in a game. His role as one of the preeminent deep-ball talents hasn’t been conducive to heavy volume — only Alec Pierce (16.86) has averaged a higher Average Depth of Target (aDOT) than Watson (16.22) among receivers with at least 100 targets since 2022. Watson’s Team Target% of 29.3 over the past three weeks ranks eighth-best among receivers in that span. And an average of 2.0 of his targets each week travel 20+ air yards — among receivers with at least six games played, Jordan Addison (18 in nine games) is the only other wide receiver who can match that average. Watson, who enters Week 14 available in roughly half of ESPN and Yahoo leagues, is well-positioned for the fantasy playoffs as the Packers will see one of the 10 easiest rest-of-season schedules for a fantasy WR.

Week 13 usage notes

• Terry McLaurin, WAS | 4 End Zone Targets (EZTar) in Week 13: McLaurin returned to action in a big way in Week 13, leading the WR position with 14 targets, which netted seven catches, 96 yards and a TD — a top 10 WR return. McLaurin also led receivers with 4 EZTar. In his previous outing (Week 8), he finished second among WRs with 2 EZTar. This is a sharp upturn from Weeks 1-3, when he did not receive a look in the end zone (two games with Jayden Daniels at QB and one with Marcus Mariota). While his past three games have been spread out (Weeks 3, 8 and 13), they have all been with Mariota behind center, and his PPR/G in those contests (15.8) would be a top-20 mark at WR for the season. Now that he’s healthy, McLaurin’s biggest headwind is a ROS schedule that is among the toughest for a fantasy WR. That said, he just posted his best effort of the season against a Denver defense that has been one of the stingiest in fantasy versus opposing wide receivers. McLaurin faces the Vikings next, and only the Chargers have yielded fewer PPR points to wide receivers than Minnesota.
• Jakobi Meyers, JAX | 85.7 Catch Percentage (Catch%) from Weeks 10-13: When Meyers (71% rostered) was traded to Jacksonville, I wrote that it was hard to spin it as a positive for Meyers due to Trevor Lawrence’s inaccuracies, but that Meyers’ short-area skills were likely what drew the Jags’ interests. Well, after a month of observation, it’s hard to argue that the Meyers trade hasn’t been a smashing success. The Jags have won three straight games, and Meyers sits at No. 12 among WRs in total PPR points in that span. His Catch% of 85.7 with the team has brought some efficiency to a WR corps that has had connectivity issues this season — Brian Thomas (50.8 Catch%), Parker Washington (57.1%), Travis Hunter (62.2%), Dyami Brown (52.8%). Meyers has proven a reliable target for Lawrence, one he doesn’t have to seek out too far down field, and that’s paying off when Jacksonville has moved into scoring position of late. Meyers is fifth among receivers in end zone targets over the past two weeks, cashing in on two of those three.

Tight ends

Week 13 was a good one for tight ends. Three tight ends scored over 20 PPR points, two more over 15 and an additional 10 scored over 10 points. At the top of the list were the usuals Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. McBride is a league-winner, y’all. Congrats to those who have him. Kyle Pitts had a day with over 15 points and 1.04 expected points added per target (EPA/Tar), while Evan Engram, Brenton Strange, Dalton Schultz and Isaiah Likely (popular streamers this season at varying points) also broke the top-10. For once, we can celebrate the position.

Spotlight

• *Zach Ertz, WAS | 20.6 PPR points; 6 First Downs (1stDn) in Week 13: Ertz (61% rostered) finished third among TEs in Week 13 with 20.6 PPR points, behind only Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. Even more impressive, Terry McLaurin was on the field. Ertz also led all TEs in first downs, targets (13) and routes (45), and was second in team target rate (28.9). He’s also seen at least one red zone target in each of the past three games. While this is the first time he’s topped 10 fantasy points since Week 7, Ertz has had a 24.2 TeamTgt% in Weeks 7-13 while averaging 7.17 targets. In Weeks 10 and 11, he had a dip in route per snap rate, but otherwise has been above 70% in the category with an average depth of target of 10.23 since Week 7 — first among TEs with at least 15 targets. The high aDOT gives Ertz the possibility for big gains, but it also means he’s not getting as much safety-valve work, which benefits tight ends, especially in PPR leagues. His 9.23 mark in Week 13 is nearly optimal for a tight end. While Ertz’s rest-of-season schedule based on adjusted points allowed is dismal, The Athletic‘s KC Joyner ranks him fifth among TEs for the remainder of the year, largely based on his target share. His Week 14 opponent, Minnesota, ranks 20th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 18th in real points allowed per game, despite allowing only 178.42 passing yards per game. While the matchup may seem daunting against a team known for its defense, there’s reason to believe Ertz can do well, and Washington could dominate time of possession with J.J. McCarthy under center for the Vikings.

Additional usage notes

• *Brenton Strange, JAX | 0.89 EPA per Target (EPA/Tar) in Weeks 12 and 13: Since returning from injury, Strange (33% rostered) ranks first in EPA/target among tight ends with at least five targets in Weeks 12 and 13. He’s also fifth in PPR points per game during that time with 13.9 and fourth in first downs, tied with Brock Bowers and George Kittle — elite company. A player who consistently gets first downs is seen as a reliable target with field awareness and someone a quarterback often turns to when in a bind. In Week 14, Strange has one of the best matchups against the Colts (who allow the second-most points to tight ends, along with the Commanders and Seahawks). Pro Football Focus rates the matchup as “great” — best possible.
• Kyle Pitts, ATL | 20.5 TeamTgt%: Pitts’ 20.5 TeamTgt% ranks fourth among TEs this season, while his 6.25 targets per game rank eighth. Pitts is averaging 9.67 PPR points per game, but he’s been boom-or-bust. Week 14 should be a boom against Seattle, which allows the second-most fantasy points to tight ends per game. Pitts (78% rostered) should be started this week (but not every week).
• Juwan Johnson, NO | 32.08 Routes Per Game: Johnson’s 32.08 routes per game rank fifth among tight ends behind only Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers and Cade Otton. Over the past two weeks, his routes per game mark is even higher, and he secured 26.5% of team targets in Week 13. While Johnson (71% rostered) had a very low dip in fantasy production in Weeks 4-6, he has averaged 12.33 PPR points per game since Week 7. Tyler Shough is proving to be servicable for Johnson, Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele. Expect Johnson to keep producing rest-of-season, though his Week 14 matchup against the Bucs is ranked only “fair” by PFF.