Democrats should go all-in on Texas — and Talarico

If faith is indeed “the substance of things hoped for,” as St. Paul wrote in his letter to the Hebrews, then James Talarico’s win on Tuesday in the Texas Senate primary was surely, at least for the Lone Star State’s Democrats, “the evidence of things not seen.”

What has not been seen for nearly 40 years is a Senate victory for the party, and the 36-year-old Talarico, a state representative and Presbyterian seminarian, has gotten Democrats excited. After his decisive six-point primary victory over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, they are hoping, as they have for at least 10 election cycles — that the massive state, with its 31 million residents, of which at least 40% are Latino, will turn finally blue. That Republicans are staring down a lengthy, costly and nasty runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas attorney general Ken Paxton, the scandal-ridden MAGA firebrand, has only increased excitement on the left.

But as stoked as some rank-and-file Democrats are, national party leaders and many high-dollar donors, according to POLITICO, are hesitating to go all-in for Talarico. At the root of their doubts and anxieties, Elena Schneider reports, is the “massive injection of cash” it would take to even contest the state, “while there are other, cheaper options on the Senate landscape.”

Politics as a profession isn’t big on faith these days. Strategists, consultants and the parties themselves have come to rely heavily on metrics; big money donors require the evidence of what is being seen — calculated, analyzed and reported — before digging deep into their wallets and purses. And to a large degree, this is of course wise. Why throw away money on unwinnable races when it can be distributed to states where it will stand to make a difference?

But Texas is a special case — and Talarico could prove a singular candidate. 

For starters, the political environment ahead of November’s midterms is shaping up to be similar to 2018, the year of the blue wave that came during Donald Trump’s first term when Democrats took control of the House and won governorships, as well as other statewide races. That year in Texas, Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 points of beating Sen. Ted Cruz.

Talarico, who gives off earnest youth pastor vibes, is a different candidate than O’Rourke, who famously spent time as a rock musician in his college years. But like the former congressman, Talarico has an extra “it” factor on the stump and in interviews. He has also homed in on a canny, powerful message that could prove to have wider appeal than O’Rourke’s.

Instead of portraying the existential fight in contemporary American politics as right versus left, Talarico describes it as a battle between top and bottom. Like an evangelist giving an altar call, his bid is invitational in nature. His refusal to place the blame solely on one person — Donald Trump — in favor of indicting “the system itself” has the potential to build a coalition of progressives, liberals, independent voters and disaffected conservatives. “Who was sitting in the front row at the inauguration?” he recently asked at a rally. “Who runs the 24-hour corporate media that treats news as entertainment? Who owns the algorithms that keep us angry and divided? A handful of billionaires have redesigned our politics for their own profit.”

While this year in many ways echoes 2018, it is also different. Trump, after his historic return to office, is an even darker, more dangerous figure than before. He has overseen a brutal and deadly mass deportation campaign against immigrants — and more particularly, immigrants of color — that has unleashed a wave of protests. His signature policy achievement was a massive tax break for the wealthy that will see millions kicked off of food stamps and Medicaid, and has already seen health care premiums skyrocket. 

Want more sharp takes on politics? Sign up for our free newsletter, Standing Room Only, written by Amanda Marcotte, now also a weekly show on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

As a result, his approval ratings are lower now than they were in 2018. And after starting an unpopular war with Iran that has left seven American troops dead and is widening by the day, his numbers could get worse. On top of this, Trump has erased the gains he made in the 2024 presidential election among Latino voters, which could prove consequential in Texas during the general election. 

Tuesday’s Democratic primary already gave indications of how far this could go. Latino voters returned home to Democrats in record numbers. Five rural majority-Latino counties saw more votes cast for Democrats than for Kamala Harris two years ago. These were the voters, according to POLITICO, who helped fuel Talarico’s victory over Crockett. And crucially, they were the voters that did not turn out for O’Rourke in 2018.

While far from a certainty, all of these factors point to why national Democrats and party donors should invest in Texas and Talarico — even if Cornyn, who is viewed by the party as less beatable, were to triumph in the runoff over Paxton, or if the attorney general were to drop out following Trump’s widely-expected endorsement of the senator.

Beyond any investment in Talarico, though, the money would help build the Democratic Party’s infrastructure in the Lone Star State for years to come. During the Obama years, state parties were famously ignored and left to crumble, and the neglect showed in the numbers. More governorships and statehouses turned red. The national party should help the Texas state party compete. The investment would also lay the groundwork for the 2028 presidential election in which it will be imperative for Democrats to win Latinos and make inroads into rural America.

On Tuesday night at this rally, Talarico made a bold claim. “We are not just trying to win an election. We are trying to fundamentally change our politics, and it’s working.”

Only time will tell if that turns out to be true. But as Republicans prepare to, in the words of Texas GOP consultant Vinny Minchullo, “release the hounds” on Talarico, it’s vital — for him and Texas, and for the health of Democrats nationwide — that he has the necessary reinforcements.