Drake Baldwin Keeps Raking – Fantasy Hitting Recap 4/1/26

Drake Baldwin (ATL): 2-3, 2B, R, 4 RBI, BB.

Drake Baldwin has started 2026 on a tear, improving across practically every metric at the plate after posting a robust .274/.341/.469 as a rookie in 2025. Baldwin has always shown excellent plate discipline, running walk rates above 13% each year in the minors while trimming his strikeouts from a totally manageable 22.5% in his first professional year to 15.2% last year. He has leaned further into those skills this year with four walks and two strikeouts over the first week of the season. In addition to his excellent plate discipline, Baldwin has always swung hard. His average swing speed of 75.3 mph last year ranked 21st among qualified hitters. He’s swinging even harder so far this year, averaging 76.6 mph and ranking 10th among all batters with at least 10 swings. The result is harder contact, as Baldwin’s average exit velocity is up 2.9 mph early in the season.

Yesterday Drake had all the skills on display as he went 2-3 with a walk, double, run scored, and four RBI, bringing his first week’s line to .318/.423/.773. He started the game with a walk, one of three that Luis Severino danced around in the first inning before driving in two on a bases-loaded single to left in the second. In the fourth, Baldwin came to the plate facing reliever Elvis Alvarado with runners on first and third and crushed a two-run double to the wall in right-center at 107.4 mph.

While Baldwin owners should certainly be happy with what they’re getting from their elite catcher, they could have had more. In his last at-bat of the game, Baldwin smoked a 102.8 mph line drive to center that would have left the park but for Denzel Clarke’s remarkable glove. Baldwin has shown no signs so far of a sophomore slump; it might be too late at this point to buy high, as Baldwin owners are getting a steal at his 5th-6th round draft price.

Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday:

Kyle Isbel (KCR): 4-4, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, SB.

Isbel has always been tempting as a back-end outfielder in deeper leagues, with owners hoping to add double-digit home runs and steals late in the draft. He hasn’t yet lived up to that promise, maxing out at 8 homers and 11 steals in 2024. The issue has been playing time, as he’s never surpassed 426 plate appearances in a season. That issue, however, is driven by his performance at the plate, with a career 66 wRC+ vs lefties and 84 wRC+ vs righties. Yesterday was a day to celebrate, though, as Isbel delivered four hits and a combo meal while the Royals teed off on Joe Ryan and the Twins bullpen. Isbel will need more of this to maintain his spot in the lineup for a Royals team that should be in the mix for an extremely winnable AL Central division.

Jac Caglianone (KCR): 3-4, 2B, 3 R.

Jac has had a mixed bag to start the season, really leaning into everything in his profile from last year. He still swings ridiculously hard (77.9 mph) and at a poor selection of pitches (34.5% chase rate, 60.7% zone swing rate). Until last night’s game, he’d had a lot of trouble elevating the ball as well. He singled and doubled to center, was hit by a pitch, then singled to right before grounding into a fielder’s choice to second. His three hits had exit velos from 100.2 to 110.1 mph and launch angles from 7 to 19 degrees, exactly what owners are hoping to see from him. His groundout was hit hard (94.2 mph), but straight into the ground at a -23 degree launch angle. It’s the launch angle that’s the main area of concern for Caglianone owners at this point. Even after elevating three of his four balls in play yesterday, Jac still has an absurd -10 degree launch angle on the season. 

Otto Lopez (MIA): 2-4, 3B, HR, 3 R, RBI, BB.

The Marlins tattooed Shane Smith, who only had 3 whiffs on 72 pitches in three innings. Unlike the rest of his team, Lopez feasted on the White Sox bullpen after the game was largely decided. He tripled off Chris Murphy in the 6th, hitting a 99 mph line drive to left that would have been expected to land for a hit only 35% of the time, as Andrew Benintendi continues to do no favors to his pitching staff. He then showed off his power, hitting a home run in the 8th off a Jordan Leasure slider that would have exited all 30 parks. Lopez is off to a strong start, hitting .318/.400/.591 and has valuable dual middle-infield eligibility that should keep him rostered in most leagues.

Liam Hicks (MIA): 3-4, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI.

Hicks did his damage early in the game. He blooped an RBI single to center in the first on his least well-struck ball of the night before pulling a 90 mph slider to right for a home run in the second inning. His hardest hit ball of the night came in the 8th on a long fly out to center field. Hicks is sharing catching duties with Agustin Ramirez this season, starting 4 games behind the plate and appearing at first base once. It doesn’t seem like he’s poised for a massive breakout, but anyone with catcher eligibility playing in 85% of their team’s games should be on your radar in two-catcher leagues.

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY): 1-4, HR, R, 3 RBI. 

The most notable part about Goldschmidt’s night was that he was starting at first base and hitting 5th against a right-handed starter in George Kirby after the Yankees decided to give a torrid Giancarlo Stanton the day off. This may have been a strategic decision as they also sat Ryan McMahon in favor of Amed Rosario, almost treating Kirby as a left-handed starter. Regardless of the reason for his presence in the lineup, he hit a 400 foot homer to left-center off Kirby and had a later groundout leave the bat at 102.3 mph. Goldschmidt also struck out twice and is swinging the bat 2.5 mph harder so far this season. It’s worth keeping an eye on whether he’s decided to start selling out for power, but late corner infield is an unpleasant problem to fix, so if he continues getting in the lineup vs righties, you have to pay attention.

Nico Hoerner (CHC): 3-5, 2 2B, R, RBI, SB. 

Hoerner decided to celebrate his extension with a three hit game vs. the Angels. He’s swinging slower than ever before, averaging 66.1 mph of bat speed (9th slowest in MLB), but he’s in a group with other contact bats like Geraldo Perdomo, Sal Frelick, and Ernie Clement. After fouling out in the first, Hoerner took a 96 mph fastball to left-center for an RBI double in the third, then doubled to right in the fourth. He singled and stole second later in the game. Hoerner is giving you exactly what you want so far this season. The main piece to watch is that he’s been strangely passive, for him, at the plate, nearly doubling both his strikeout and walk rates. This is being driven by a six percentage point decrease in how often he’s swinging. Is it good, bad, or an artifact of a tiny sample? I don’t know.

Garrett Mitchell (MIL): 2-4, 2B, R, 2 RBI, SB. 

Mitchell was mostly forgotten about in drafts coming into this season after repeat injuries held him to just 443 major league plate appearances from 2022-25. He’s a boom or bust player, running a 38.9% K rate which is only marginally higher than his career 34.1%. He’s also swinging hard (76.2 mph) and hitting the ball hard when he makes contact (98.2 mph average exit velocity). Yesterday was no exception, as he paired a softly hit single (and steal of second) with a 112.6 mph line drive double down the right field line. He also struck out twice. With Brandon Lockridge also having a hot start to the season, the Brewers will have a decision to make when Jackson Chourio comes off the IL in a couple weeks. The pedigree and timeline would suggest Mitchell is going to get the first chance, but given his history, it’s hard to rely on him.

Troy Johnston (COL): 2-4, 2B, RBI, SB. 

Johnston has had a nice start to the season, hitting .333/.333/.600 and adding a steal yesterday to a homer a few days ago. A natural inclination might be to point to the offense-enhancing nature of Coors Field, but the Rockies have been on the road for all six games to start the season. Johnston led off last night against a dominant Kevin Gausman and struggled like the rest of the Rockies offense. He did get to him in the sixth for a sharply hit double, then singled off Tommy Nance in the 8th before stealing second and moving to third on a wild pitch. Johnston has stolen 24, 17, and 33 bases over the past three seasons despite having a 27th percentile sprint speed in his small MLB sample last year. A key point of interest in this game was that Johnston played first base, right field, and left field at various points while Willi Castro covered first, second, and third base. It’s worth keeping an eye on whether this is an intentional choice by new Rockies management and you may be able to pick up some multi-position eligibility that you can always start at home.

Caleb Durbin (BOS): 0-4, 2K.

It’s been a rough start for Durbin in Boston as he’s yet to record a hit. He grounded out twice, struck out once, then had a call overturned for a second strikeout on an ABS challenge. With the new team and a dramatic increase in strikeouts so far, I thought he might be over-aggressive at the plate. That’s not the case, though. He’s swinging less than last year, especially in the zone, and chasing a little more. Mostly he’s hitting the ball straight into the ground with a 69.2% ground ball rate, the kind of number you only see in one-week samples of data. I’m still optimistic about Durbin figuring it out and fitting nicely into the Red Sox lineup. He’s got a lot of runway, too, with Kristian Campbell seemingly permanently moved to the outfield, Romy Gonzalez on the IL, and Marcelo Mayer also struggling. It’s a team-wide issue at this point, with the Red Sox ranking 22nd in wRC+.

Alec Burleson (STL): 0-5, K. 

Burleson gave us some reasons for optimism despite his performance today. He crushed a 111 mph line out to Carson Benge in the 8th inning which had a .910 xBA. He hit a 98 mph grounder into a double play in the 11th which had a .470 xBA. His first at bat was a grounder up the middle that should have been an easy double play with Francisco Lindor perfectly positioned, but Lindor forgot there was only one out. He also grounded out on a 93.7 mph batted ball in the fourth. Burleson’s had interesting plate discipline metrics so far this year. He’s swinging more at pitches both in and out of the zone, but his overall swing rate is down because pitchers are living outside the zone against him (41.1% zone rate vs 50.4% last year). Pitchers refusing to throw him strikes has led to a 14.8% walk rate and 7.4% strikeout rate, nearly the mirror image of last year despite his increased chase rate. If I had to guess, these are small sample flukes, but maybe pitchers will stay out of the zone against him all season after the Cardinals sold this winter. If they do, you might revise down your power expectations for Burleson but revise upwards his OBP and runs scored.