English referee Michael Oliver appointed to Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich — Here’s what the stats say

Is this good news? Bad news? Neutral news? According to UEFA, English referee Michael Oliver has been appointed to officiate the upcoming game between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich in the Champions League. This preserves the UEFA tradition of assigning an English ref whenever FC Bayern meet a Spanish team in the competition.

Oliver’s record with Bayern includes:

So overall, it is a 85% win percentage. Now let’s compare it to Madrid’s record:

Looking at these numbers, Oliver seems to card both teams at a fairly consistent rate, with Madrid having a slightly worse record with him in charge. Then again, he also gave Bayern Munich a red card against PSG, because Benjamin Pavard made a tactical foul in added time to keep the Parisians from scoring.

The real deciding factor will be Oliver’s VAR team and how the technology is used during the game. If it’s anything similar to the Premier League’s implementation, then things could get messy very quickly. Especially since the game will be at the Bernabéu, with a massive home crowd used to having decisions go their way.

Yellow cards could be a major deciding factor for this tie. Bayern Munich have two players at risk of suspension if they collect a single yellow — Konrad Laimer and Dayot Upamecano. Madrid have several — Vinicius Jr., Aurélien Tchouaméni, Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappe, and Dean Huijsen. That means key players for both sides could miss the second leg, should they be carded.

In the end, you can’t predict the outcome of a game by just the referee alone. Hopefully Michael Oliver officiates a fair and impartial game, and gets all the important calls right. If he does, well…