ESPN shakes up Top 25 BPI rankings after 7 ranked teams fall on final Saturday of college basketball regular season

The final Saturday of the 2025-26 college basketball regular season had it’s fair share of drama, and nearly all conference tournament brackets are set. Now, ESPN has updated its Basketball Power Index (BPI) following an upset-filled day around the country.

ESPN’s BPI always come with a bit of controvrsey, but that’s because they’re not traditional rankings. The BPI measures team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward, representing many points above or below average a team is. This takes into account Strength of Record (SOR), game predictions based on a number of criteria and is used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections.

Notable outcomes from Saturday’s slate include No. 4 UConn‘s upset defeat to unranked Marquette, potentially keeping the Huskies from a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Unranked Louisville toppled No. 22 Miami 92-89, No. 24 Vanderbilt outlasted No. 23 Tennessee on the road, No. 15 Purdue fell at home to Wisconsin, BYU upset No. 10 Texas Tech and George Mason blew out No. 25 Saint Louis. With this in mind, here’s ESPN’s BPI after the final college basketball Saturday of the regular season:

Duke finished the regular season on an eight-game win streak, including Saturday’s 76-61 win over in-state rival North Carolina. The 15-point victory avenged the Blue Devils’ previous loss to the Tar Heels last month.

Now, Duke heads into the postseason as the outright ACC regular season champions (17-1 vs. ACC) and No. 1 seed in the upcoming conference tournament. The Blue Devils could still be named the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament even if they don’t win the ACC tournament based on their head-to-head win over Michigan.

Michigan wraps up its 2025-26 regular season on Sunday afternoon when it hosts rival Michigan State in a matchup between two top 10 teams. The Wolverines have already won the Big Ten outright by multiple games regardless out the outcome.

With the Wolverines looking to secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament — but won’t have it easy along the way. After Sunday’s game vs. the Spartans, Michigan will have a bye to the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. Four other teams are ranked inside the top 15 within the conference, and the Wolverines will most likely have to go through at least one, if not more in order to win the conference title.

Arizona lost back to back games against ranked Kansas and Texas Tech squads on Feb. 9 and 14, respectively. Other than that — the Wildcats have been perfect. In the toughest conference in college basketball, Arizona is 16-2 vs. the Big 12 and has wins over the likes of Florida, UConn and Alabama in the non-conference. They eventually won the Big 12 by two games.

The Wildcats boast three potential first-round NBA picks in Brayden Burries, Koa Peat and Motiejus Krivas. They’re loaded with veteran talent everywhere else.

Florida began the season with a 5-4 record coming off their run to a national championship one year ago. 20-2 since, Todd Golden’s Gators are playing as well, if not better than any team in the country at this point in the season.

The Gators won the SEC by three full games (16-2 vs. SEC) and have an All-Star starting five who all average at least 11 points per game. They enter the postseason having won their last 11 games.

Houston finished second in a stacked Big 12 at 14-4 against conference opponents. The Cougars won their last three games to finish the regular season, but have struggled against ranked competition this season as they’re 4-5 against AP Top 25 teams.

Still, Kelvin Sampson’s squad has wins over Arkansas, Texas Tech and BYU. All impressive wins, however, their three-game skid to ranked teams in late February keeps them away from the No. 1 seed line.

Illinois found itself ranked as high as No. 5 in the country last month before a couple of overtime losses put a damper on things. Still, the Fighting Illini were ranked 11th heading into the final week of the regular season.

They looked every bit the part during their 80-54 win over Oregon and will look to finish the regular season off on a high note at Maryland Sunday afternoon. As it stands, Illinois holds a half game lead over Wisconsin for the No. 4 seed in the conference tournament.

When Gonzaga finished non-conference play with one loss, many believed the Bulldogs would run the gauntlet in the WCC and enter the NCAA Tournament as one of the top seeds, again. However, Gonzaga ran into a couple of upset losses along the way — including a 70-59 loss to Saint Mary’s to end the regular season.

The loss earned Gonzaga a share of the regular season title instead of winning it outright. Still, many believe the Bulldogs have a high ceiling in March.

The Big 12 is so stacked that the No. 6 team in the country is the No. 5 seed in the conference tournament. Tied at 12-6 with Kansas and Texas Tech, tiebreaker scenarios gave the nod to the Jayhawks and Red Raiders, forcing the Cyclones to play during Wednesday’s second round.

Still, this shouldn’t take away from the season Iowa State has had so far. Iowa State boasts wins over Kansas and Houston in the Big 12, as well as St. John’s and Purdue during the non-conference portion of the season.

Purdue ended its regular season on a low note after falling to unranked Wisconsin 97-93 insider Mackey Arena. The Boilermakers have lost four of their last six games heading into postseason play.

The preseason No. 1 team finished seventh in the Big Ten standings. This includes a 4-4 mark vs. AP Top 25 teams, a 12-5 record at home and a 13-7 record against the conference. Purdue’s conference tournament opponent will be revealed on Sunday night after all games conclude.

UConn was the fourth No. 1 seed in Joe Lunardi’s predictions heading into Saturday. Following their loss to unrakned Marquette on the road — Florida jumped them for that spot.

The loss cost the Huskies a share of the 2025-26 Big East regular season title, as well as a possible No. 2 seed in the upcoming conference tournament. However, UConn heads into the postseason with a 27-4 record and will be looking to crown themselves national champions for the third time in four seasons.

ESPB BPI Rankings 11-25

11. Louisville Cardinals (22-9) —
12. Tennessee Volunteers (21-10) —
13. Michigan State Spartans (25-5) —
14. Alabama Crimson Tide (23-8) —
15. Vanderbilt Commodores (24-7) +1
16. St. John’s Red Storm (25-6) +2
17. Nebraska Cornhuskers (25-5) -2
18. Texas Tech Red Raiders (22-9) -1
19. Kansas Jayhawks (22-9) —
20. Arkansas Razorbacks (23-8) +2
21. Kentucky Wildcats (19-12) —
22. BYU Cougars (21-10) -2
23. Virginia Cavaliers (27-4) —
24. Wisconsin Badgers (22-9) +3
25. UCLA Bruins (21-10) +9