Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup 3/26: Cade Time Off

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Cade Cavalli (WSN) @ CHC (ND) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 75 pitches.

I don’t think anyone expected Cade Cavalli to start opening day for the Nationals way back in the fall, but there he was, doing everything he could to stave off the Cubs in the Nationals’ first game of the year and…it wasn’t anything to write home about: 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 75 pitches (ND). I know there were a fair number of y’all fascinated with Cavalli entering the year and I watched this one hoping to become one of you. I did not.

It’s the same guy that concerned me before: A four-seamer/sinker combo at 96 mph that fails to miss bats, and a curveball that can do damage, but isn’t ready to lead the charge. The rest? A 3/9 strike sweeper and a changeup thrown six times for a pair of surprise strikeouts. It really is all about spotting his four-seamer and sinker effectively and mixing in the curve properly, and it’s just not enough. The Nationals as a whole don’t excite me, either, and it’s simply too early for me to jump in on Cavalli. I’m sure he’ll have some fun starts in time, but he doesn’t have the juice for an 8+ strikeout game, nor the efficiency and arsenal depth to suggest he’ll throw six quality frames constantly. I recommend moving on and snagging value elsewhere this weekend.

Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:

Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs MIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.

An interesting one from Rogers. His changeup was phenomenal down-and-away to RHB, with four-seamers staying upstairs, but he didn’t have the exact precision we saw last year, with more wild misses out of the zone with his heater than usual. Fortunately, he churned outs against a poor offense, and we’re all thrilled about it. I expect better than a 59% strike rate on four-seamers moving forward and I don’t see why this won’t work out for the year. The SWATCH is still in style.

José Soriano (LAA) @ HOU (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 91 pitches.

Hey y’all, it’s me, the clear fool who told you to ignore Soriano. Go easy on yourself, Nick. Four walks! Yeah, but I should have realized it was a RHB-heavy Astros lineup that Soriano could eat up with his sinker in and curveballs away. Still, those walks are a problem with a 46% strike rate on his curveball, but the hook also went 8/26 whiffs and came in at 86/87 mph – 1/2 ticks harder than last year. It’s a seriously legit pitch with two-plane movement and I love that he was able to spot it incessantly down-and-away to the RHB-heavy crew. The slider and four-seamer weren’t so inspiring, despite their legit velocity, and I’d still be cautious with Soriano. The strike rate will always be an issue and facing more LHB will make for difficult nights. But this was cool. I hope it’s a start he can build on.

Tarik Skubal (DET) @ SDP (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 74 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. This was Koufax spurning me for favoring Skenes in my rankings, wasn’t it? You southpaws are a cult. I’m a bit surprised to see Skubal feature 2-3 clicks less extension suddenly, but he did ramp up the velocity as the start continued, as he likely was being cautious in an easily won game. He’s dope and makes us feel dope.

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 87 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Koufax was kind on this night with 90% hard contact (Burners + Solid + Barrels), resulting in just three hits, and his sinker was 94.5 mph – the same as 2024, missing the extra heat of last year, but it’s the first game of the year, and he obviously SHOVED. That changeup is just so elite. And maybe Texas isn’t the best offense…

Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs BOS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 83 pitches.

He was Singled Out a bit and was able to squirm out of some jams with double plays and a few huge punchouts. He’s a good pitcher, y’all. While he likely won’t be last year’s darling, he’ll still be a great QS arm at the very least.

Garrett Crochet (BOS) @ CIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 80 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Weird to see a large dip in both vert and ride on his four-seamer, which needed even more of a dip to find the zone after it flew up-and-armside constantly for just 53% strikes. His cutter was absurd, though, and made easy work of the Reds’ lineup. What a fella.

Joe Ryan (MIN) @ BAL (ND) – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 85 pitches.

Hey y’all, the back is totally fine. He kept his heater upstairs consistently at 94 mph, and even upped his curveball usage massively, turning into a proper weapon at 79 mph, churning six strikeouts on the pitch alone. He barely earned any on the hook last season, and I kinda love it. Maybe he’s learned Nola’s curve this off-season (wouldn’t that be something) and this is what Ryan looks like when he has a legit secondary to work with. It’s pretty dang fun. Oh, and also having a 7/10 strike splitter to LHB does wonders, too.

Hunter Brown (HOU) vs LAA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 9 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 102 pitches.

Whoa, 102 pitches?! Already?! And even that wasn’t enough to dispose of the questionable Halos for a full five frames. Really strange to see Brown miss upstairs with both sinkers and four-seamers so often, especially the sinker that sat inside and well above the zone at least a third of the time. Regardless, he’s still at 96 mph, and there’s no reason to believe he’s suddenly incapable of throwing fastballs for strikes.

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs CHW (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 11 Ks – 25 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 94 pitches.

After a lead-off HR to Meidroth, Jay Mis locked in for a Golden Goal, showing Webb what marks truly deserve the coveted award. One major note: Misiorowski’s extension is far lower than last season at 7.2 feet vs. his 100th percentile 7.6 feet of last season. It could be a concientious decision in an effort to minimize “max effort” and have a touch less violence at the end of his delivery, or maybe there’s something else up, like poor tracking data. At any rate, he’s clearly stupid hard to hit, still, and I’m thrilled to tell you that he stayed in the upper half with his fastball all game. No wonder he returned 19/61 whiffs on four-seamers alone. It’s the best heater in baseball when he’s able to do that. No joke.

Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs TBR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 78 pitches.

Despite the low strikeout total and poor WHIP, that’s a streaming victory with just a solo shot from Aranda’s bat as the sole blemish. What I saw wasn’t anything particularly thrilling – only his slider returned more than one whiff (4), and half came against the same batter – but he’s in a good situation with the arsenal of a solid Toby, who should be able to head back out for the sixth and finish above 85 pitches in future outings.

Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 73 pitches.

If this is your first time learning about Rasmussen, understand that this is exactly who he is. I really couldn’t come up with a more standard Ras line. He’ll give you great ratios without strikeouts across five innings, eventually six. It’s what he does. If only he could get the feel for his breakers again…

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs ARI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 96 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Nothing to report here, save for a reduction in four-seamers for more sinkers, cutters, and sliders to RHB. No complaints from me, and it looks like he’s saving the four-seamer for two strikes and I love that. He earned a punchout on a high heater, while also a double on a 2-2 four-seamer down the pipe. Womp womp. At least the double came before the strikeout, i.e. he’s not giving up on it. Atta fella.

Tanner Bibee (CLE) @ SEA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 78 pitches.

He allowed three solo shots and struggled to find strikes on his cutter and four-seamer, but what is this?! 18.3″ of vert?! That’s nearly 4″ more vert on the four-seamer since last year when it struggled to get its head above 15″. So here I was, AMPED about this new heater, when suddenly, he’s tossing warm-up pitches for the sixth frame and he leaves with a trainer. The word right now is “Shoulder inflammation”, which does not sound good. Why can’t we have nice things?! Man, I was so ready to get back on the wagon due to that absurdly better heater. I hope he’s okay.

Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs CLE (ND) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 86 pitches.

Aces gonna introduce a new cutter for 72% strikes and I LOVE IT. What I don’t love is the slider losing velocity and getting shelved for a sub 50% strike splitter (he also has a new changeup that is definitely not the splitter. It’s pretty cool too…?), but I love the expanded arsenal and generally good command + legit cut on the four-seamer and 17″ of vert. Yeah, I like this a lot.

Shane Smith (CHW) @ MIL (L) – 1.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 54 pitches.

Welp, even without Chourio in the lineup, Smith realized he still needed to pitch well to get through the day. He had some filthy changeups at times, and sitting 96 mph across all 54 pitches is cool, but the ceiling is obviously not there with such poor efficiency and an early hook.

Freddy Peralta (NYM) vs PIT (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 80 pitches.

After allowing two HRs to Brandon, you could say this was a Lowe point. But it’s pronounced LAO. Why are you the way you are. Outside of those two pitches – a hanging slider and a poorly placed heater – he was pretty dang good. Well, save for the 52% strike slider, which kinda looked like two different pitches at 83/84 mph and 80/81 mph. Huh. Anyway, Professor Chaos is still the same man you thought he was. Probably.

Zac Gallen (ARI) @ LAD (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 76 pitches.

This wasn’t the start of Gallen’s redemption season we wanted to see, but it was the Dodgers, and we weren’t feeling great about this in the first place. Not to mention, a bit of “Careful Icarus” with four shutout frames featuring just a hit and a walk before allowing five baserunners before earning an out in the fifth, leading to a comically large cane darting out from the dugout to give him the hook. It doesn’t get a whole lot better with DET, @NYM, @PHI on the horizon, and I have to wonder if it’s best to let him sit on the wire for now. I understand the ceiling, but is this really worth it? His slider was better. Okay, that’s true. It was up a tick to 89 mph with a few inches extra drop and -5″ cut, and that’s pretty dang good…if it’s better than 53% strikes (5/15 whiffs, though). Fine, hold for the Tigers and go from there.

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) @ PHI (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.

Oh look, Eovaldi allowed 36% of the runs he allowed across his final nine starts of 2025 in just one outing. It was a pair of home runs. It’s true. The dang longball bit him – first a poor 1-2 curve to Schwarber, second a hanging cutter to Bohm – and it’s unlikely it’ll happen consistently. He’s still legit.

Paul Skenes (PIT) @ NYM (L) – 0.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 37 pitches.

Aces gonna get Bamboozled not just by the Mets, but also by his centerfielder, Cruz, who lost a crucial ball in the sun to make a rough inning even worse. This was just one of thosse games, y’all. Too bad it had to happen on opening day, and the Pirates did the wise thing of not pushing their stud too much in one frame. Whatareyagonnado.

Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs WSN (L) – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 44% CSW, 63 pitches.

This was going super well through three with a solo shot mixed among seven strikeouts, but he left plenty of pitches over the plate in the fourth and the Nationals jumped on em. If only he could continue throwing the heater up and out of the zone, feasting on their aggression for 13/42 whiffs overall. Sigh. I think all of y’all are smart enough to intepret 20 whiffs and a 44% CSW as Boyd obviously on his game and running into a crooked inning. Nothing to worry about.

Nick Pivetta (SDP) vs DET (L) – 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 69 pitches.

Pivetta simply didn’t have it. The first was a grind with three walks across his first five batters, then a trio of hits in the third pushed through another two runs and they had to pull him just under 70 pitches in only nine outs. If Pivetta continues to throw roughly 50% strikes with both his curve and four-seamer, yeah, we can sound the alarm bells. However, I see this as a poor first frame that he never quite got out of.

Game of the Day 

Cole Ragans vs. Chris Sale – PEW PEW PEW + Lanky McLankerson = A lovely time at the part.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)