Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup 3/29: Hold Up, Let Em Cook

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Sunday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Emerson Hancock (SEA) vs CLE (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 97 pitches.

I did not expect Emerson Hancock to go six no-hit innings tonight against the Guardians. I certainly did not expect him to return nine strikeouts as well: 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 97 pitches (W). That’s one impressive line and you’re wondering if he’s worth the pickup. My gut says no, but my brain says “Sure, Nick doesn’t know everything.” I absolutely do not.

Hancock really impressed me as I watched this start. For a guy known as your standard sinker/slider arm, he faced almost exclusively LHB, which is generally a death sentence for this archetype. After all, sinkers are worse and a four-seamer is badly needed. And that’s the thing – his four-seamer was amazing. I’ve never seen Hancock with such command of the pitch upstairs, and his flat 1.3 HAVAA combined with its prime location (look at Grant Holmes perk up as I said that) and three inches more vert, the 93/94 mph fastball returned 78% strikes with an 9/52 whiffs. That’s bonkers. He also leaned into the sweeper at 26% usage, which had some extra sweep to 17″ from 15/16″ last year, but despite how pretty it looked at times, I’m cautious to trust a 77/78 mph #2 pitch that returned just 40% strikes. In addition, I have to note that Hancock’s heater was 95 mph last season, not 93/94. It’s a little harder to believe he’s a huge step up with a drop in velocity.

I find it hard to look at this and see a pitcher who is set to consistently perform. His four-seamer command was an outlier and unlikely to repeat. His sweeper is still a bit suspect. The changeup and cutter barely got involved and when he faces lineups not so LHB-heavy like the crew from Cleveland, I’m not sure what we’ll get. Ideally, it’s inside sinkers (that’s what I thought was his best pitch with 18/19″ of run and 2.5″ of vert! Then again, it’s now down to 92/93 mph…) with sweepers away and four-seamers up, but who knows. We’ll absolutely get a look when he faces the Angels later this week and sure, take a stab at it if you like. I personally prefer most of the early disappointments over this arsenal and outlier command.

Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:

Seth Lugo (KCR) @ ATL (W) – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 77 pitches.

Among all the hoopla of the new, young arms, here’s the vet Lugo producing with ease across 6+ frames. Yes, I’m still worried about his overall ability, but at least he’s upped his vert to something actually legit at 17″, while he’s added an inch or two of ride to both his sinker and changeup. I’m still worried about the curveball’s lower velocity (it’s been his money pitch for ages) and I wouldn’t call this the start of a glorious return, but yeah, he can still do this.

Connelly Early (BOS) @ CIN (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 96 pitches.

He’s here! He’s actually here! And it wasn’t disappointing like all the others. Yeah, because he’s the best one. Well, yes, but the Shag Rug does exist and who knows what’ll happen in the first game of the year. This wasn’t the most explosive performance, but the heater is two-plane with a disgusting kick-change that wasn’t quite precise, a slider that has a little too much lift, a good but not great curveball, and a great sinker. The whole package? Fantastic, as Early locates his heaters and breakers well + I expect more from the change in future outings. I hope you weren’t…Late. The only joke, I swear.

MacKenzie Gore (TEX) @ PHI (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.

He’s throwing sinkers inside to LHB and THEY ARE SPECATULAR. 44% CSW, y’all, with the only hit being a weak flare jamshot from Schwarber. I wish he had a better feel for his secondaries, though. The four-seamer was getting upstairs without hesitation, but he got away a bit with his curve and failed to get it down per usual, while the slider didn’t go gloveside, the changeup was rarely touched (2/5 strikes) and the cutter was hit-or-miss. And yet, a solid outing. This feels lovely, y’all.

Eric Lauer (TOR) vs ATH (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 87 pitches.

I’m sorry what. Lauer is only here due to the injury mess going on above the border and he took full advantage with a Gallows Pole that obviously earned him today’s Gold Star. What’s so strange is that everything looks…worse. His extension dropped three clicks to just 5.8 feet, his cutter is a tick harder, but with a ton less movement, and he’s a touch slower on everything else. And yet, his high cutter went 3/10 whiffs, the 91 mph, 16″ vert four-seamer had 40% CSW with 12/50 whiffs on 60% usage (Excuse me?!) and that’s your ball game. Uhhhh, naaaaaah. This didn’t make sense and I refuse. Nope. Can’t do it. Suitman whispers into my ear. Wait, he gets the White Sox and Twins next?! Well, giving it a whirl one time can’t hurt, right?

Jake Irvin (WSN) @ CHC (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 93 pitches.

Huge props to Irvin for this one, upping his velo a tick to 93/94 mph and having a whiffable curveball with extra sweep. I sure don’t see enough of a change here to go after Irvin, but he took down the Cubs and that’s a fun moment.

Rhett Lowder (CIN) vs BOS (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 86 pitches.

RHETT SOME. Does he say that? He should say that. Sorry, was that too soft? Yeah, he does it Lowder. I’ll stop now and tell you that Lowder had the same changeup that impressed me in the spring, but failed to spot it consistently, returning just 39% strikes. He also didn’t even jam guys with the sinker and still had a 46% CSW (thanks for the passivity, Boston). That said, the slider is a legit weapon (6/24 whiffs, 67% strikes) and if he can nail down the slowball and that slider, the fastballs are good enough to make this work. Keep an eye on him. I’d be tempted to stream him in Texas next.

Nolan McLean (NYM) vs PIT (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 84 pitches.

He was frustratingly inefficient with his sweeper and spotty with sinkers and curves. Buuuuut I love the four-seamer at 97 mph and 16″ of vert (2″ up!), while that sweeper is hilarious at -20″ sweep. Yeah, you’re going to see a King Cole more than once from McLean this year.

Anthony Kay (CHW) @ MIL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 92 pitches.

The first came with a two-run shot, the second began with back-to-back walks, and then he struck out five of his next eight batters with four different pitches. That’s baseball, Suzyn. I’m still a believer here. Kay is displaying the right intent on his offerings and I don’t expect the changeup to return 29% strikes in the future, nor his sweeper and slider to combine for 1/28 whiffs. Meanwhile, the heater is 96 mph from the left side, and he jams sinkers into LHB with ease. He has a comfortable rotation spot and I have a strong feeling he’ll click this year. Could be soon, could be later, but he’ll get there.

Jose Quintana (COL) @ MIA (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 78 pitches.

The dude loves his low changes with cut-fastballs inside to RHB. He nearly made it through the required five frames with what feels like your uncle’s craftiness. That’s a Toby, if it weren’t for Coors on the horizon. Welp, see you maybe once a year in the perfect road matchup.

Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) @ NYM (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 85 pitches.

Whoa, eight strikeouts?! Carmen’s velocity took a huge hit as he stretched out to 85 pitches (2-3 ticks down on all but the slider), resulting in a mediocre 94/95 mph four-seamer, but a 17″ ride 94 mph sinker that he chucked over the heart of the plate without fear for 47% called strikes. Wild but not wild. That poor four-seamer was spotted well with two strikes, leading to five punchouts on the pitch, while he couldn’t spot the curveball (33% strikes) and relied more on the splitter than I’d like to trust in the future. In short, I’m highly skeptical of this one, where nearly all of his whiffs came with two strikes. There are better arms to chase.

Max Meyer (MIA) vs COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 81 pitches.

The slider is still filthy as a 90 mph gyro, while there’s also a disgusting two-plane 88 mph sweeper, and Meyer does the right thing by throwing the pair over 50% of the time. The problem? The sweeper returned 53% strikes and he couldn’t execute the slide piece early in the game, propelling a three-run two-out double in the first. Sigh. Otherwise? HE WAS GREAT. Even the changeup went 79% strikes and he had no fear with 80%+ strikes on his heaters. If only he didn’t get the Yankees up next. But then it’s the Reds Carpet. Is that still a thing this year? I hope so.

Grant Holmes (ATL) vs KCR (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 76 pitches.

So let’s see if REB can sell me on granting him room and board.. Well, he has two extra inches of vert on his four-seamer and two more inches of drop on the slider (that’s hot), and he was able to keep the slide piece down for 8/34 whiffs and 41% CSW, but the four-seamer is still a highly questionable offering that lacked command, while the rest of the arsenal didn’t do a whole lot. Sure, the curve existed (is it really a curve? It’s pretty much the same pitch as the slider), and it was unfortunate in the field with 100% weak contact returning two hits on three balls in play, but this is still all about sliders and nothing else. That makes for a strikeout streamer and not one to bank on week-to-week.

Bailey Ober (MIN) @ BAL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 56 pitches.

Ober gave way to Mick Abel after four frames, granting us our first HAISTBMBWT?! of the year, and shockingly, Abel was far worse. I’m surprised they let him get pushed for 81 pitches across 3.1 innings, especially when he was clearly gassed in his fourth frame, throwing 93 mph heaters instead of the 97 mph in his first at-bat. But why was he relieving?! Because the Twins didn’t need a fifth starter until the next turn of the rotation. ANYWAY, we ignore Ober, of course, and celebrate those who didn’t know about this and had Abel on the bench. Just get the first awkward game out of the way and enjoy the rest.

Shane Baz (BAL) vs MIN (ND) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 78 pitches.

The man got Singled Out in the second, including a three-run double with two outs on a legit 98 mph heater at the very top of the zone. Life ain’t always fair. The good news? Baz has three legit pitches he throws for strikes. I’m buying low here.

Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs WSN (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches.

He was bamboozled! A three-run shot in the first was a dagger in our hearts (that splitter to Wiemer in the first was golfed and I’m still mad about it.), though Imanaga recovered, gave us seven strikeouts, and sat 92 mph on his heater as we hoped he would. We cool.

Steven Matz (TBR) @ STL (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 81 pitches.

This wasn’t peak Matz. Sub 60% strike rates on sinkers and changeups aren’t the gameplan, while his slider was highly inconsistent and barely touched. He’ll get the Twins next, though, and I’m still kinda interested.

Tatsuya Imai (HOU) vs LAA (ND) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 74 pitches.

Blegh. You could tell so easily that Imai wasn’t comfortable. It may be as simple as “Getting used to the new ball” or that it was his first start for his new club at their home park. Whatever the cause, this was not the Imai we’ll get. He went 0/7 strikes with his splitter. Sub 50% four-seamer strikes. Hold on.

Luis Morales (ATH) @ TOR (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 71 pitches.

I know he throws hard, but it’s Empty Velocity and those secondaries all failed to give him any sort of support. I’m sure he’ll have a few good ones here and there. The plateau of success your hoping far feels so far away.

Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) @ HOU (ND) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 94 pitches.

If you watched his last spring start, you could see how it would work for The Jack of Some, Maybe, I think, Trades. This wasn’t his day, though, with a poor slider and changeup command, and without the high heater and inside sinker. I’ll be waiting when it clicks. It’ll be a lovely day.

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs TEX (L) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 99 pitches.

I saw this line and instantly knew that HRs were involved. First was a terrible sweeper to Nimmo that stayed inside and he hooked the thing with ease. The second was a 2-2 four-seamer right down the pipe to McCutchen. That’s not it, Luzardo. He already whiffed on the changeup, just throw that again! Anyway, brush it off, longballs happen and at least the WHIP and seven strikeouts are fine.

Slade Cecconi (CLE) @ SEA (L) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 93 pitches.

Hey, this was three shutout before a cataclysic fourth capped by a three-run shot, and more trouble in the fifth. That doesn’t make this any better. Nah, not really. I love seeing his four-seamer is now 17-18″ of vert with legit two-plane movement, but I don’t like two inches of decreased velocity that explains the extra drop on his curve and cutter (87 mph at 5″ of lift isn’t great), and this ain’t fun at all. Sigh. If the velocity gets back to 94/95 mph with that vert, and he’s throwing an 89mph cutter with the same drop, then we’re talking. This wasn’t it.

Dustin May (STL) vs TBR (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 61 pitches.

Jeeeeez, you too? This one felt less deserved than the others, with some great sweepers, changeups that actually worked, low sinkers, some high heaters, a few effective cutters, and a whole lot of Koufax waging its fury on our poor D. May like he was a Tennessee basketball fan. I don’t feel as strongly about May as I do the likes of Sproat or Imanaga, but I’d still be interested to see how it goes in Detroit and hosting the Sawx + Guardians after. I see a productive arm here.

Brandon Sproat (MIL) vs CHW (ND) – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 86 pitches.

Well this feels bad. So many fun pitchers went on Sunday and so many failed us. Sproat hurt the most after my adoration for the former Met across a phenomenal spring. Yes, he started off terribly with two walks, a single, and a grand slam, but he barely got his footing at all in this one, allowing a trio of HRs before the end of the third, and I can feel all the seething anger and rage drops. So go ahead! If you have your eye on someone else on the wire, go for it. Sproat should be the last if not one of the last SPs on your 12-team roster and the whole plan was to make those quick decisions. THAT SAID, considering how much different he looked in this game vs. the spring (and still had massively upped velocity), I personally am holding where I have him. This isn’t what we should be getting throughout the year and that 94 mph cutter is destined to be far better than what we just saw. In addition, his curveball abandoned him for 18% strikes, and the whole thing was a mess. It’s his first game with his new squad – first time leaving camp in a rotation! – and it’s well within reason to believe this was the Shag Rug appearing vs. his true talent. That’s what I see and I’m going to be daring. I see @KCR and vs. WSN up next and I’m sticking with it. Maybe it’s unwise with the Jays after, and that’s your call. He’s so much better than this.

Game of the Day

Braxton Ashcraft vs. Chase Burns – Yeah, this is fun.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Photo by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)