Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup 3/30: Lance In The Pale Moonlight

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.

Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) vs BOS (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches.

Ah, the first week of baseball. The time when we get a sample size of one and I do my very best not to get too amped or too rash, while enduring angry messages when I can’t sign off on a good performance. We have a new example of the latter tonight, with Lance McCullers Jr. returning a marvelous performance against the Sawx: 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches (W). I already told you I can’t sign off on it, and anyone familiar with him should know why.

He’s volatile. He’s always been volatile. One game he’ll dominate like this with legit feel for his cutter at 90 mph, sinkers that were able to sneak on by for 28% called strikes (the Red Sox are pretty passive, for what it’s worth), and shocking ability for his curve, change, and sweeper to all return at least a 65% strike rate. And even watching this, where he constantly attacked with pitches moving in different directions, I had to remind myself of his 19 strikeouts across two games last season. Two games that preceded 12 ER in the following two outings.

So if you’d like to head outside and join Lance in the pale moonlight, you do you. Maybe he’s actually unlocked something with the cutter to make him more consistent. It’s not a certainty. Personally, I’m putting on my headphones and jamming to Opeth to block the song of this siren.

Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:

Landen Roupp (SFG) @ SDP (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.

Oh dang! We saw Roupp pull back on the curve to LHB in favor of cutters and they did their part at a four mph difference and 20 inches separation from the sinker. I absolutely adore that. His changeup made more of an appearance to RHB, if you can believe it, and while it still needs some polish, it did come through at times. He’s a solid arm when the arsenal isn’t all over the place (sinkers for strikes!), the only question is if he can keep this feel. The jury is still out.

Bryce Elder (ATL) vs ATH (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 83 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! Elder was rough in the spring and it looked grim when he was confirmed as a member of their rotation, but here he is, strutting his sinker/slider to RHB, and a flurry of cutters and changeups to LHB for a strong night at the park. It feels awfully like a Birthday Party (reduced velocity on the slider and change, too, though the former had a little more movement to make up for it).

Luis Castillo (SEA) vs NYY (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 95 pitches.

OOPS ALL FOUR-SEAMERS. Castillo picked up where he left off in late 2025, tossing 60% four-seamers at the top of the zone, while the slider took nearly all responsibilities as the #2 offering at 34% usage and…47% strikes. But no matter! The four-seamer returned 13/56 whiffs due to its precision upstairs and maybe I should have had more faith in the fella holding onto his second half fastball command. Or maybe this is too tenuous to continue and it was at home, even if it the Pinestripes came knockin’ on the door. Either way, you’re letting fly next time and I hope it’s more of the same.

Edward Cabrera (CHC) vs LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 80 pitches.

Oh look, it’s no more sinkers with 55% four-seamer strikes at 28% usage. His changeup wasn’t awfully consistent either (58% strikes), but the slider and curve were hot, combining for a near 47% CSW in 29 pitches. The slider in particular was incredible with 5/16 whiffs and boy do I hope he can keep this up. With more fastball strikes.

Parker Messick (CLE) @ LAD (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 76 pitches.

Funny story, this wasn’t peak Messick. The sinker is dope, though, with 33% usage vs. the 14% of last year vs. LHB, and he got that bad boy inside like a cute pet hiding in a jolly giant’s shirt pocket. But this wasn’t “pepper up, salty change down”, nah, he tested out a new cutter and some sliders with his hook a fair amount, and eventually had some fine fastballs and changes to get the job done. Regardless, this was a scary play and while I’m not absurdly encouraged by this, his sinker embrace and cutter unlace is my happy place.

Michael Soroka (ARI) vs DET (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 89 pitches.

I was anticipating the cutter would show up, and while it did, only five lifted their head above the trenches, while the curveball hollered toward the enemy, obliterating all in its path with 44% CSW across nearly 50% usage. Soroka had such a good feel for the pitch down-and-gloveside, and it allowed him to stay up with four-seamers and scatter a few solid sinkers armside. Is this super repeatable? Not really, but against mediocre offenses, this will do just nicely. Does that include Atlanta up next? Ehhhh, maybe? Don’t expect another King Cole.

Chase Burns (CIN) vs PIT (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 78 pitches.

It’s nice to see a calm, easy, simple outing, and even a dub with a 78 pitch limit. Sure, he didn’t have his best four-seamer command (53% strikes, yikes), but he was too hard to hit and the slider cooked with 8/24 whiffs. Just stay healthy. Please.

Kris Bubic (KCR) vs MIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 75 pitches.

Not his best, but it was the Twins and he was sitting 92 mph. That’s fine. Now go locate the sinker and four-seamer a little better, k thx. The changeup can’t go 6/16 whiffs every game. Thanks for staying healthy.

Kyle Harrison (MIL) vs TBR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 87 pitches.

This was a flurry of heaters inside the zone with changeups and curveballs slashing through randomly, and you know what? That’s totally cool with me. A 74% strike rate from Harrison is Something, while my former self Gently Weeps for getting sniped in my draft. That said, it wasn’t the best feel for the changeup and curve, but I’m nitpicking now. When you see plenty of strikes with great stuff, the sun will come.

Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) @ TOR (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 72 pitches.

Okay, sure. I’m happy for him? But he didn’t go a full five frames. Let the man have some joy dangit.

Ryan Weathers (NYY) @ SEA (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 77 pitches.

Daaaaang, I wish he could have made it through the fifth. His pitch separation was phenomenal, keeping heaters inside and changeups away, even if he just missed the zone with the slowball a fair amount. He’s sitting 96/97 mph (up to 99 mph in the first and down to 93 mph in the fifth, dude was gassed.) and I think he needs a few more starts to pace himself a little better. Keep riding this, of course.

Roki Sasaki (LAD) vs CLE (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 78 pitches.

You know, this is way better than I thought. At least for a final line. The “cutter” is a standard gyro slider, which is totally cool on paper, and Sasaki was able to get the thing in the zone aplenty at 73% strikes. However, the splitter returned just 22% strikes and that four-seamer movement is horrendous, granting it the lamented Empty Velocity tag. Still, he survived and props to him for that. As expected, we saw Justin Wrobleski appear shortly after Sasaki, tossing the final four frames of the game and three runs to his name after an endless seventh inning. This was far from the best I’ve seen Wrobleski (94 mph and mostly fastball/slider), though this could be the plan moving forward, opening the door for vulture Wins.

Cody Ponce (TOR) vs COL (ND) – 2.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 47 pitches.

Man, the dude was looking fantastic and then he hurt his leg (Knee? Hamstring?) fielding a ball toward first. 15/47 whiffs before the injury, y’all. His slider was dotted to RHB, the changeup baffled RHP, and his curve + four-seamer filled in the rest. Sigh. Please be okay, this was your year.

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) @ CIN (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.

I love that Braxton has embraced his curveball over the slider. Both saw the same volume against RHB, but the curve was excellent to LHB at 41% usage and it’s the right call – its 84 mph velocity with -12″ of drop and -8″ sweep is fantastic. And he also throws 96/97 mph! Well…about that. First of all, he doesn’t have the best command of them. Second, they returned zero whiffs on forty-three thrown. 0/43. Is that normal? No, fella, IT AIN’T NORMAL. Well, for Ashcraft’s heaters, it kinda is, but what I’m trying to get at is how hyper-reliant Ashcraft is on his breaker. This feels like the Huascar Rule getting broken, not to mention nearly 75% hard contact in this one. I’m still tepid here.

Nick Martinez (TBR) @ MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 88 pitches.

I guess his hamstring is alright! He’s going more kitchen-sink than I expected with changeups leading the way at a surprisingly low 24% usage. It’s because it went sub-50% strikes. Okay, fair. It was a day of cutters, sinkers, and four-seamers chilling over the plate and barely getting touched, while the rare sliders he threw (and should not continue to throw) were slapped with a quarter of hits across only ten thrown. I’m just throwing stuff at you now and I’ll stop. This didn’t impress me. Be careful.

Jack Leiter (TEX) @ BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 92 pitches.

Oh snap, look who has come back to town? Why, its’s “JACK ZIPPO”! A Gallows Pole for the stuff king, who gave us all a lovely surprise with 29% changeups at 91 mph, returning 8/27 whiffs and a 70% strike rate. The slider was its right-hand man and it produced 7/22 whiffs of its own, and while I’m super jazzed about all of that, how does he go 0/16 whiffs on his fantastic heater? Ohhhh, right. Because whiffs are highly correlated with location and it had a 44% strike rate. This wasn’t Leiter locked in. As much as I want it to be (oh I SO want a true breakout season from Leiter), this was not the start you thought it was. It’s why he’s a HIPSTER – he can still have these strikeout games, but the volatility is staring at you in the face. Who knows what the results will be next time with this chaotic command.

Clay Holmes (NYM) @ STL (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 90 pitches.

A Philly for The Adobe with a questionable WHIP, but you’ll take it. This is who he is. Pretty dang cool changeup here, with three more inches of drop as nearly everything was below the x-axis. That is, negative vertical values save for the 2″ vert sinker. I honestly haven’t seen that before and it hurts my back just thinking of how much I’d have to lean to reach some of these tailing pitches. If only his last pitch tailed a bit more, allowing a solo shot on a hung slider down the pipe to Gorman in the sixth. So close.

Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) @ KCR (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 83 pitches.

Velo is still 92/93 mph (a little better than the spring, but not 94), but he’s lost movement on everything + the splitter was rough. He got away with this one with an overall 53% strike rate and 23% CSW. Make like Sir Robin, y’all. Run. Away.

Foster Griffin (WSN) @ PHI (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 86 pitches.

I just want to make the “Is this a SWATCH?” meme out of this, but it’s too dang late. The cutter saved the day and I don’t know why he thought he could get away with that sub 92 mph four-seamer over the plate to Marchán (it left the park quickly for both runs allowed), but he sure can’t let that happen again. Without a ton of changeups destroying RHB, I’m not in.

Davis Martin (CHW) @ MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 92 pitches.

A two-run shot did most of the damage, but the overall performance still isn’t encouraging. Extension is down, velocity is down, and he struggled to get his four-seamer and cutter over the plate. Never trust pitchers with two first names. Usually. Stupid Gerrit and Joe…

Walker Buehler (SDP) vs SFG (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 72 pitches.

He really tried to make that changeup work, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a higher usage rate than strike rate on a pitch thrown over 15 times – 46% usage vs. 38% strikes. Yeesh. There are obviously so many better options.

Jacob Lopez (ATH) @ ATL (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 0 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 91 pitches.

Welp, this sure ain’t it. If you were giving this a ride, be happy you have a quick decision to get off this train – he was over a tick down on everything but the 78 mph breaker.

Kyle Leahy (STL) vs NYM (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 79 pitches.

It was two runs through five, then he allowed both batters he faced to reach in the sixth before he got the hook, who obviously both scored. But that’s not the real issue here. No, that would be a HAISTBMBWT?! Come on Leahy, you even pushed it to 94 mph. How could you throw your filthy slider just 10 times?! It’s better than the sweeper, dangit. He threw plenty of strikes, but didn’t spot that all particularly well, and I’m out until I see a game of executing his arsenal. The stuff is still interesting with 7.3 feet of extension on that heater, presenting some fun upside if it clicks.

Ranger Suarez (BOS) @ HOU (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 76 pitches.

Like those goats in Severence, he ain’t ready. He’ll get there, just give him a moment. Sure hope he doesn’t turn into a HIPSTER. Why is he wearing flannel? Oh no.

Chris Bassitt (BAL) vs TEX (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 100 pitches.

I remember thinking of Bassitt as this wide arsenal arm, and sure, he still has a variety of options for LHB, but he’s sinker/curve nearly 85% of the time to RHB and it’s…eh. You need more meat on the bone.

Justin Verlander (DET) @ ARI (ND) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 80 pitches.

I’m happy the slider got some whiffs. I’m sad he returned just one strikeout – HAISTBMBWT?! – and failed to give us any faith in streaming him in the short term.

Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs WSN (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 99 pitches.

Even against the Nationals. Don’t go near it.

Ryan Johnson (LAA) @ CHC (L) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 80 pitches.

His splitter was pretty dope to LHB, and everything else was nothing to write home about. This looks bad on paper, like ice cream. No one likes ice cream on paper.

Chris Paddack (MIA) vs CHW (L) – 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 79 pitches.

And here I thought there was a chance of being sneaky against the White Sox. Should have learned from Sproat. I guess? After all, they each allowed a grand slam to the squad. At the very least, it’s encouraging to see a new sweeper that returned a fair number of whiffs, but the cutter went 42% strikes and he obviously has a terrible floor.

Game of the Day

Shane McClanahan vs. Brandon Woodruff – This would have been SO SICK like three years ago.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

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Photo courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)