Final 2026 Picks in 24 Categories

This has been a long-ass Oscar season. You can blame the Olympics and last weekend’s Los Angeles Marathon, which featured a runner whizzing across the finish line at the last minute past the stumbling frontrunner. The good news about the prolonged awards season: We have an Oscar race. The usual snowball effect that makes voters pile on consensus choices has not taken hold of the major categories this year, except for Best Actress leader Jessie Buckley, likely the only win from eight nominations for “Hamnet.”

The long season had another effect: It allowed frontrunners like Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” to peak and possibly slack before the voting ended on March 5. “One Battle” dominated the precursor awards (Critics Choice, Golden Globes, WGA, PGA, DGA, BAFTA), and looked like a sure thing until Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” capped the Actor Awards with two big wins for Michael B. Jordan and Ensemble right smack in the middle of Oscar voting. The house went wild, much as they did when Bong Joon Ho’s “Parasite” won Ensemble and surged to the Oscars with four wins, including Best Picture and Director; it was expected to win International Feature and Original Screenplay, at best.

Suddenly, the odds at Gold Derby flipped in several categories. Back-to-back wins for Sean Penn at the BAFTAs, where he beat Globe-winner Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”), and the more American-leaning Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Actor Awards (which didn’t nominate “Sentimental Value” at all), pushed him into the lead. The BAFTAs reveal where the foreign Oscar vote is leaning, representing 24 percent of the Academy. (At the Oscars, the Norwegian entry earned nine nominations, including Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, International, and four actors.) Also pushed into serious contention were SAG winner Jordan and “Sinners,” which, as of March 11, is favored to beat “One Battle” for Best Picture. Gold Derby voters don’t know everything. But the consensus has moved toward “Sinners.” Was that true at the close of voting on March 5? Stay tuned for the showdown on March 15.

The big questions heading into the Oscars: Will voters make Coogler the first Black director to win an Oscar after 97 years? They might. Will they make Autumn Durald Arkapaw the first woman to win Best Cinematography? They might. But the stats favor respected auteur PTA, who has 14 nominations but has never won, and “One Battle After Another” director of photography Michael Bauman (winner at BAFTA, BSC, and ASC). But in this year’s random sampling of anonymous ballots across various media, many voters are going with “Sinners” in multiple categories because they want to support it.

In a year that will deliver quite a few surprises on Oscar night — and no matter what will make “One Battle” and “Sinners” studio Warner Bros. jump for joy — I predict that “One Battle After Another,” with 13 nominations, will win six, including Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, and Editing. The period horror-musical ”Sinners,” with a record 16 nominations, will likely win four (Actor, Original Screenplay, Casting, and Score), and Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein,” with nine noms, could take three (Costume and Production Design and Makeup & Hairstyling). But while the crafts awards often mirror the BAFTAs, many folks could give individual categories to “Sinners.” So its Oscar count could rise.

Two Best Picture foreign-language films are duking it out for International Feature: “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent.” The good news: They both deserve to win. It’s a strong category. Even Netflix, which often does better with nominations than wins, can go into this Oscar show knowing they have two Oscars in the bag: “KPop Demon Hunters” should win Animated Feature and Best Song (“Golden”). The Oscar show is favoring the hugely popular “KPop” and “Sinners” with big-scale musical numbers celebrating both movies.

My final list of 24 Oscar picks and spoilers is below.

Best Picture: “One Battle After Another”
Spoiler: “Sinners”
Bottom Line: In one of the closest battles in recent memory, this could go either way. It’s tough to call. Anderson is the great strength behind “One Battle.” Both films appeal to a wide swath of Academy voters, including the mainstream male voters known as the steakeaters, and “One Battle” winning the BAFTAs is a sign of international strength. “Sinners” is surging in popularity, but its horror elements turn off some folks.

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”)
Spoiler: Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”)
Bottom Line: This will likely go to the oft-nominated Anderson, but the chance to make history with the first Black director Oscar winner could prove irresistible.

Best Actor: Michael B.Jordan (“Sinners”)
Spoiler: Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”)
Bottom Line: At the beginning, the Best Actor Oscar looked like Chalamet’s to lose, as the now-30-year-old followed up last year’s “A Complete Unknown” loss with a likely win. He earned rave reviews and won the Comedy Globe and Critics Choice Awards. But his swift pivot from channeling his driven Marty Supreme character to market the picture to his dark-suited Oscar-campaign persona reeked of inauthenticity, and he kept saying the wrong thing at the wrong time. He lost the BAFTA to a local unknown (“I Swear” star Robert Aramayo) as well as the Actor Award, which went to Jordan. And whatever happens in other categories, many voters will funnel their “Sinners” love into this vote and could award the man who played twins his first gold statuette.

Best Actress: Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”)
Spoiler: Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”)
Bottom Line: Irish actress Buckley has swept the precursors for her earthy, no-holds-barred performance as a woman in love with William Shakespeare who grieves the loss of her son — and the absence of her playwright husband (Paul Mescal). She will take home the Oscar. (Luckily, her “Hamnet” follow-up “The Bride!” opened after voters filed their ballots.) Byrne is a favorite among many voters for her equally intense version of a mother falling apart.

Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”)
Spoilers: Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”) and Delroy Lindo (“Sinners”)
Bottom Line: This is the toughest category to call. Penn beat Skarsgård on European turf at the BAFTAs, which suggests Penn, 65, has the international vote, and his win at the Actors Awards gives him the Americans as well. Colonel Lockjaw is an unforgettable character rife with conflict and vulnerability. As so often happens, even if many folks in Hollywood dislike the guy, and Penn has already won two Oscars, big and brash often beats quiet and precise. But Skarsgård, 74, is well-liked across many films over the years, from Lars von Trier’s ‘Breaking the Waves” to “Dune.” A third possibility: another overdue actor, Spike Lee regular Delroy Lindo, 73, could ride the “Sinners” train to a win. He was robbed for “Da 5 Bloods.”

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan (“Weapons”)
Spoiler: Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”)
Bottom Line: Madigan, 75, hasn’t been on the Oscar stage for 40 years (“Twice in a Lifetime”). She’s well-known and respected, along with her husband, Ed Harris. She knocked Aunt Gladys out of the park in smart horror flick “Weapons,” even though most viewers had no idea who she was through her crazy makeup. And there are questions about who has actually seen the movie. Mosaku is a BAFTA-winning TV and movie actress who moved from London to Los Angeles to join her eventual husband. She works constantly and provides the beating heart for “Sinners” as the hoodoo-practicing wife of Smoke (Jordan). Again, a “Sinners” surge could lift many boats.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”)
Spoiler: Chloe Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell (“Hamnet”)
Bottom Line: This WGA-winner is PTA’s to lose and is a sure bet. Even if the movie bears little resemblance to Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland.”

Best Original Screenplay: Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”)
Spoiler: Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt (“Sentimental Value”)
Bottom Line: This WGA-winner is Coogler’s to lose and is a sure bet.

Best Animated Feature: “KPop Demon Hunters”
Spoiler: “Zootopia 2″
Bottom Line: This Korean-American culture phenomenon will not be denied. BAFTA winner “Zootopia 2” will likely have to settle for box office glory ($1.86 billion and counting).

Best Animated Short: “Butterfly”
Spoiler: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”
Bottom Line:  It’s tough to call these categories. Usually, the emotional heart-tugger wins. Both of these shorts qualify.

Best Casting: “Sinners”
Spoiler: “Marty Supreme”
Bottom Line: Francine Maisler is well-respected and marks an easy win for the sprawling and eclectic cast of “Sinners.” But “Marty Supreme” conjured up some unexpected faces, from Goop CEO Gwyneth Paltrow and director Abel Ferrara to “Shark Tank” mogul Kevin O’Leary.

Best Cinematography: “One Battle After Another”
Spoiler: “Sinners”
Bottom Line: It could go either way. Follow the precursors, and Michael Bauman wins. Follow the “Sinners” love, and it goes to the category’s first woman, Autumn Durald Arkapaw.

Best Costume Design: “Frankenstein”
Spoiler: “Sinners”
Bottom Line: For this lavish period drama, Kate Hawley wove her own shimmering fabrics. But voters could also reward two-time Oscar-winner Ruth Carter (both “Black Panther” movies) for her 30s “Sinners” designs.

Best Documentary Feature: “The Perfect Neighbor”
Spoiler: “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”
Bottom Line: Many enjoyed the true-crime aspects of Netflix’s multi-award-winning Sundance pick-up “The Perfect Neighbor,” but, finally, director Geeta Gandbhir is admired for how she organized this sprawling narrative from police cam footage to reveal the limitations of our justice system. A charming Russian videographer resisted the increased militarism of his school in “Mr. Nobody Against Putin,” which won the BAFTA, a reminder that the foreign vote is key in this group.

Best Documentary Short: “The Devil is Busy”
Spoiler: “All the Empty Rooms”
Bottom Line: Gandbhir was a co-director on moving observational diary “The Devil is Busy,” which chronicles a day at an abortion center from several points of view. “All the Empty Rooms” follows an indefatigable journalist who tracks school shootings and takes cameras inside the ghostly preserved rooms of some of the children lost.

Best Editing: “One Battle After Another”
Spoiler: “Sinners”
Bottom Line: If “One Battle After Another” and its rolling hills don’t win this category at the start of the night, it could go the way of “Sinners” after that. That film is all about the dreamy juke-joint musical sequence that blends eras and cultures.

Best International Feature Film: “Sentimental Value”
Spoiler: “The Secret Agent”
Bottom Line: Norway’s entry won second place at Cannes; the father-daughter show-business drama shows its strength with nine nominations. Even Elle Fanning landed one of four acting nods. The thoughtful, politically timely ’70s-set Cannes Best Actor winner “The Secret Agent” scored Picture, Casting, Actor (Wagner Moura), and International noms.

Best Live Action Short: “The Singers”
Spoiler: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
Bottom Line: One sings, the other doesn’t. Netflix is pushing “The Singers,” a moving display of unexpected musical prowess, while France’s chilly black-and-white “Two People Exchanging Saliva” is a sophisticated mind-game.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: “Frankenstein”
Spoiler: “Sinners”
Bottom Line: If this doesn’t go to Del Toro’s monster movie — which slapped Jacob Elordi in the makeup chair for 10 hours before he started acting — something is very wrong. On the other hand, “Sinners” also executed on a large scale, from exploding music to manic vampires.

Best Production Design: “Frankenstein”
Spoiler: “Sinners”
Bottom Line: This category could switch from one elaborate period piece to another if “Sinners” runs away with votes.

Best Original Score: “Sinners”
Spoiler: “One Battle After Another”
Bottom Line: Ludwig Göransson should win his third Oscar (“Black Panther,” “Oppenheimer”) for this tour-de-force score that brings musical history to life. Ordinarily, three-time nominee Jonny Greenwood’s percussive piano score for “One Battle After Another” would be a slam-dunk for a win.

Best Original Song: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”
Spoiler: “I Lied to You” from “Sinners”
Bottom Line: Cultural crossover phenomenon “KPop Demon Hunters” is so huge that it’s hard to imagine Oscar voters not rewarding “Golden,” which won Best Song Written for Visual Media at the Grammys, Best Original Song at the Golden Globes, and the Hollywood Music in Media Awards. On the other hand, the “Sinners” coattails could extend to this category with “I Lied to You.”

Best Sound: “F1”
Spoiler: “Sinners”
Bottom Line: This year, the biggest noisiest sound — “F1” — should take the win. But in a category that has gone to “Sound of Metal,” “Whiplash,” and even German-language “The Zone of Interest” in the past, the complex musical sound design of “Sinners” or “Sirāt” could sneak into contention. “F1” won the BAFTA and the Cinema Audio Society, while “Sinners” won the Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE).

Best Visual Effects: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”
Spoiler: “Sinners”
Bottom Line: James Cameron won four craft nominations for “Avatar: The Way of Water” and won VFX, while this year it was two nods and a likely VFX win. But voters could favor the Best Picture contender here: “Sinners.”

What’s the real bottom line? Watch out for “Sinners.”