How the politics of succession are playing out in Houston

HOUSTON — On Monday, Christian Menefee is expected to be sworn in as the next member of Congress from Texas’ 18th Congressional District.

Two weeks later, a mostly different group of voters than the ones who just elected him will begin heading to the polls to decide if he should keep the job beyond the end of this year.

The lengthy election process to fill out the remainder of Rep. Sylvester Turner’s term — the former Houston mayor died 11 months ago — means his successor will take office while immediately pivoting to a primary battle shaped by redistricting and a broader conversation about the thorny politics of age and seniority. It will be a rematch of sorts — Menefee’s runoff opponent, Amanda Edwards, is also running to be the district’s Democratic nominee for a full two-year term — with the added twist of a third contender: longtime Houston Rep. Al Green.

The March 3 contest looms in just over a month, with early voting to begin Feb. 17. But in some ways, the conversation around the 18th Congressional District’s future has been going on for years.

Democratic members of Congress from Houston — who typically represent deep-blue districts — have tended to stick around for decades. When Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, who had represented the 18th District since 1995, announced a mayoral bid in 2023, it seemed to present a rare opening for an up-and-coming Houston Democrat.

But after losing the contest for City Hall, Jackson Lee filed for reelection to her House seat. In June, a few months after defeating Edwards for the nomination, the 74-year-old congresswoman announced she had been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. She died nearly seven weeks later.

Turner, coming off of two terms as mayor, was selected by Harris County Democratic Party officials, by a narrow vote, to replace Jackson Lee as the party’s nominee in November. The 70-year-old won, was seated in January, and died last March.

Voters in the 18th District — the first in Texas to send an African American to Congress and a bastion of Black political power ever since — had to wait eight months to cast a vote for Turner’s replacement, after Gov. Greg Abbott set the special election for November and the ensuing runoff about three months later.

That wait will end as soon as Monday, when Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, plans to swear in Menefee, as long as he has the needed paperwork in hand from the Texas Secretary of State’s Office, according to a source familiar with the matter. Once seated, Menefee will add another vote for House Democrats in a chamber narrowly controlled by Republicans. The GOP’s advantage will shrink to 218-214, meaning Republicans will only be able to afford one defection on party-line votes moving forward.

In the meantime, while the 18th District was sitting vacant, Republicans in the state Legislature redrew Texas’ congressional map with the goal of picking up five seats throughout the state, including one in Houston. In turning Green’s 9th Congressional District into a red-leaning seat on the opposite side of Harris County, they also dramatically changed the boundaries of the 18th. Under the new lines, Green’s home is now located in the 18th District.

When voters in the newly drawn district soon head to the polls to pick between Edwards, Green and Menefee, they will be weighing the candidates’ ages and experience levels in the wake of the deaths of two Democratic champions. Those considerations may be especially top-of-mind for the quarter of registered voters in the current 18th District who will remain under its new boundaries, including those in Third Ward, Kashmere Gardens and MacGregor, some of whom will be voting for a congressional representative for the third time in five months.

“I think it’s very front of mind,” said Democratic state Rep. Lauren Ashley Simmons, D-Houston. “Not just the loss of representation, the loss of services, but the emotional toll this has taken on people. We loved Sheila. We loved Sylvester.”

Octogenerian President Joe Biden’s decision to exit the presidential race in 2024 brought dormant concerns about age in politics to the surface, contributing to a number of high-profile Democratic retirements among older members of Congress this election cycle and primary challenges around the country from younger candidates targeting older, long-tenured incumbents.

In Houston, with the district’s recent history in mind, the potency of generational change as an electoral force will get a major test. Edwards is 44. Menefee is 37. Green is 78.

“It’s a conversation that’s definitely happening,” said Shea Jordan Smith, a former Jackson Lee staffer and Democratic operative who is backing Menefee in both the special election and the primary. “I think that this primary will be indicative of where we go across the city, across the state and also nationally.”

The seniority system

Among Democrats in Congress, seniority has long been the coin of the realm for amassing power, with committee chairmanships and plum assignments largely reserved for the most seasoned members. Older and long-tenured Black Democrats have often been among the strongest proponents of that system, which they see as one that evens the playing field by minimizing factors such as fundraising ability or popularity.

Green, for example, as a 21-year incumbent, is the fourth-highest-ranking Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee. As ranking member of the panel’s subcommittee on oversight and investigations, he would be in line to chair that panel if Democrats gain control of the House in November.

In an interview, Green defended the seniority-based system, saying it has allowed Black members of Congress to gain power. Without it, he argued, “money will rule.”

“Without seniority, a single billionaire can wreak havoc on elections,” Green said. “Because they know that if they take people out that [have] seniority, there won’t be seniority. And then when we start to debate amongst ourselves, then the debate becomes: Who raised the most money? Who’s contributed the most to campaigns? People of color will lose when that happens, because people of color don’t have the billions of dollars that are out there in the hands of people like Mr. Elon Musk.”

With the runoff finished, voters will now be tasked with weighing Green’s experience against the new energy of Edwards and Menefee. Green said he wants the campaign to be a battle of records — and he believes that his stands tallest. The age conversation, he said, is a distraction meant to divide a community that Republicans have already sliced up in redistricting.

But Green is not the only septuagenarian Democrat facing a younger challenge. From the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race to House contests in Atlanta, Hartford, Los Angeles, Memphis and Sacramento, Democrats over 70, of all races and ideological persuasions, are being primaried by younger candidates. Several have been supported by David Hogg, the 25-year-old former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee, who was removed by the body over his support of younger, progressive primary challengers to Democrats he believed are “asleep at the wheel.”

Hogg, whose Leaders We Deserve PAC poured over $125,000 into the special to back Menefee, said it’s possible to both respect Green’s service and acknowledge that a new generation of leaders is needed.

“Imagine a scenario in which Democrats win a one-seat majority, and God forbid, the thing that has happened twice already in this congressional district happens again — and then Greg Abbott gets to decide when Democrats have a majority,” Hogg said. “That is a real dynamic in this race, and there’s no way of acting like it’s not.”

Green is the 26th-oldest House member of 431; already, seven of his elders, including Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi and others in the upper echelon of House leadership, have announced their retirements. Green’s fellow Texan, 79-year-old Lloyd Doggett, also reluctantly hung up his cleats to avoid a redistricting-related primary challenge from 36-year-old Rep. Greg Casar of Austin.

In interviews with a dozen candidates, elected officials, operatives and voters, Houston Democrats were clear that they, and voters, blame President Donald Trump and Abbott for pursuing redistricting and forcing a difficult choice on them. But they know they’ll have to make a decision all the same. And elected officials, leaders and voters said that age is on people’s minds.

“It’s hard to have this conversation, because…we want the tenure, we want somebody who’s been there, who’s been a champion,” said Shamier Bouie, the chair of Houston Black American Democrats. “But we also look to the future to say, we have two great candidates who would be the incumbent for CD-18. We don’t want to lose sight of missing out on someone who has such great potential to do so many things over a long period of time.”

Green’s take

Green, a former Harris County justice of the peace and president of the Houston NAACP, is well-known to the Houstonians he’s represented for decades. Recognizable for his trademark ponytail and black-and-gold cane, the congressman has made national headlines for his numerous pushes to impeach Trump and his removal from the State of the Union last year, after he stood up and shouted at the president about Medicaid cuts.

In March, Green is asking Houston voters to send him to Congress for a 12th term. The Constitution, he noted, only sets a minimum age for service — not a maximum.

“Why would I have to explain how I can have longevity after my current age?” he said. “Why would people want to ask me to exit the race if you believe in the Constitution?”

The conversation around his age, he believes, only serves to divide the community amongst themselves, when the blame, he said, should lie with Abbott and Trump, for setting the 18th District special election for November rather than earlier in 2025, and for pursuing the redistricting scheme that has pitted Green against his younger opponents.

Currently shaped like a ring, the 18th Congressional District connects MacGregor, Third Ward and downtown Houston to the Heights and Acres Homes in the northwest part of the city, also taking in Humble and parts of East Houston.

In its redrawn form, the district no longer extends northwest of downtown Houston. It has added cities south of Houston, including Missouri City and Fresno, and now takes in areas like southwest Houston and the Texas Medical Center that Green has represented for much of his career since he took office in 2005. Nearly three-quarters of registered voters in the current 18th have been moved to other districts.

Green says voters should return him to Congress based on his record, including successfully recommending three judges to the federal bench during the Obama era, directing federal funds to the Port of Houston, airports and Texas Medical Center, and his ongoing quest to designate a Slavery Remembrance Day.

He has also taken great offense to a Houston Chronicle column from Jan. 15 arguing that after the losses of Jackson Lee and Turner, the district “can’t take another hit” and should elect someone younger.

Green, flanked by Houston state Rep. Ron Reynolds and pastor Max Miller, held a recent press conference at which he tore up a copy of the Chronicle. In an interview, he called the column “offensive” and “immoral” and compared age-related criticism to other forms of discrimination.

To Green, the pushback against his age is the latest in a line of hurdles that began with getting passed up for opportunities because of his race. After that, he said, he was told he needed more education. After getting his law degree, working as a lawyer, and getting elected, he said voters were looking for experience — which he now has in spades.

“Well, what’s next?” he said. “The goalposts keep moving for people like me who’ve played by the rules.”

The congressman has since rolled out endorsements from members of Congress including San Antonio Rep. Joaquin Castro, along with former Fort Bend County Democratic Party chair Cynthia Ginyard and former Houston City Attorney Ben Hall.

Green also said he expects to get outspent in the primary and that, given there are three prominent candidates, it will go to a runoff. The elongated timeline, he said, will allow monied interests to try and push him out — including, he speculated, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC. The group spent millions in Democratic primaries last cycle to successfully push out two lawmakers critical of Israel.

“AIPAC is willing to spend inordinate amounts of money to get me out of office,” said Green, who has voted against sending military aid to Israel.

A representative for AIPAC declined to comment. The group has not sent any money to Edwards or Menefee.

When asked if he felt he had many more years of service to give, Green said he would invite voters to his 110th birthday, before interrupting himself.

“This is a ridiculous conversation for me, I’ll be quite honest with you,” Green said. “I’ve got to assure people that I’m going to live? I could go out and get hit by a car.”

But he added that he has the stamina to continue serving voters, and that his cane is for self-defense rather than mobility.

State Rep. Ron Reynolds, who endorsed Green, said he hasn’t seen the congressman slow down.

“We need champions with a proven track record,” Reynolds said. “Experience matters. And I don’t think that a person’s age should determine their ability to hold public office. I think that’s an insult.”

“Knowing when to close the chapter”

Nearly a dozen Houston Democrats interviewed for this story said voters are discussing Green’s age — and balancing their respect for him with the appetite among some for generational change.

Democrats acknowledged the topic can be uncomfortable, particularly for Black voters who have appreciated how Green and others have used the power of seniority. But the deaths of the 18th District’s last two members has forced the issue, however thorny.

“In this community — which is historically minority, Black [and] brown — I think that speaking of death and loss in this calculated, strategic, sort of flippant way is something that we don’t do, just naturally as a culture, as a people,” said Smith, the pro-Menefee Democratic operative. “But I think it’s something that people are definitely feeling.”

Simmons, who currently lives in the 9th District but will be a resident of the 18th District by the March primary, said age does matter to voters. Both she and her 18-year-old son will be voting for Menefee.

“People are concerned,” said Simmons, a freshman lawmaker who represents parts of southwest Houston. “We don’t want to put anybody in the grave, make any type of predictions in that way. … It would be one thing if this happened once. It happened twice. It’s going to be the elephant in the room, regardless of how he decides to address it.”

Jackie Anderson, president of the Houston Federation of Teachers, plans to vote for Menefee in the primary as well. She’s not “ageist”, she said, noting she’s not too many years behind Green. But she believes leaders need succession plans, and that part of legacy is “knowing when to close the chapter.”

Anderson said she loves Green, and that it’s not personal, but that it’s time for him to pass the torch — and that he cannot claim he has no viable successors.

“I’m really disappointed in how this is coming out,” Anderson said. “I just think that the division that people try to create for us — we’re allowing ourselves to be pulled into that chaos when we don’t have to. We should be sitting down as elders and coming up with the best plan moving forward, and not being so tied into the position.”

Erica Lee Carter, Jackson Lee’s daughter who briefly represented the district at the end of her late mother’s term, has endorsed Menefee in the special election. She said that extends to the primary.

“I think that we’ve reached a time where we need that energy,” Lee Carter said. “The 18th has gone through some unfortunate circumstances, and we want someone we can send for the long haul to bring that fight.”

For Edwards, the debate is proof positive of a conversation she’s been trying to initiate since her run against Jackson Lee in 2024.

Despite losing the primary, Edwards gave the longtime congresswoman her first competitive race in decades. After Jackson Lee died, she put her name up to replace her as the nominee; Harris County Democrats picked Turner over her by just one vote.

“I’ve been trying to be a part of the solution to this issue,” Edwards said. “Succession is a difficult subject in most arenas, whether it’s a church, whether it’s in politics, whether it’s a business. But it’s necessary for the success of the broader purpose.”

Democratic operatives said though Green’s name identification is high and he’ll be facing many of the same voters who have repeatedly elected him, his reelection is no safe bet. Menefee will be coming in with momentum and an active campaign apparatus that’s been running at full speed for months.

The Menefee campaign put out a poll in December showing the former county attorney finishing first in the primary and leading Green by 5 percentage points in a runoff.

In both the special election and the runoff, some of Menefee’s strongest support came from neighborhoods that are staying in the 18th Congressional District — a fact strategists say could give him an advantage.

Green, in his press conference, said he wants to earn the votes of people of all ages. But he made a prediction as well.

“If you try to divide this,” Green said, “and you’re successful in dividing it into young versus old — a lot of old people vote.”