Iowa Women’s Basketball Tip Time Preview: Wisconsin Badgers

#9 IOWA HAWKEYES (23-5, 14-3) AT WISCONSIN BADGERS (13-15, 5-12)

TIME: 2:00pm CT

TV: BTN+ – Spencer Saltz, Jimmy Lynch and Rachel Cohen

SERIES: 82nd Meeting – Iowa leads the series 61-20 – Iowa has won 31 straight meetings

BY THE NUMBERS

OFFENSE: IOWA: 78.9 PPG, 49.6% FG, 36.3% 3PT, 15.0 TO WISCONSIN: 69.1 PPG, 42.0% FG, 34.7% 3PT, 16.5 TO

DEFENSE: IOWA: 65.7 PPG, 40.8% FG, 32.6% 3PT, 15.5 TO, +7.2 REB MARGIN WISCONSIN: 72.5 PPG, 43.5% FG, 32.8% 3PT, 14.4 TO, -0.1 REB MARGIN

IOWA HAWKEYES PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

WISCONSIN BADGERS PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

WISCONSIN PLAYER TO WATCH: Guard Destiny Howell

The Wisconsin offense ranks 15th in the Big Ten in scoring during conference games (66.8 ppg) and have just two players averaging in double figures. Howard transfer guard Destiny Howell is the most dangerous scorer for the Badgers, averaging 14.5 points per game. She has scored in double figures in 13 of 17 conference games, including a career-high 39 points against Oregon.

An off-ball guard, Wisconsin will run a lot of screening actions to get Howell the basketball. Some of those actions are to get her open for three-point opportunities or to get her going downhill to midrange jumpers and looks around the basket. Howell’s three-point shooting is her biggest strength, knocking down a team-best 60 threes at 40.0% this season. She’s recorded ten games with 3+ made threes, including a program-record ten triples in a 2OT win over Oregon. Howell has been pretty efficient in the paint, converting 67.9% (36-of-53) of looks at the rim and 58.3% (56-of-96) in the paint. Her midrange game hasn’t been super efficient (30.7%), but she’s not afraid to take those shots, as they account for 23.4% of her 321 shot attempts.

Howell does enter this game in the midst of her slowest stretch of the year. She’s averaging just 6.0 points on 9-of-44 (20.5%) shooting over her last four games, including 3-of-20 (15.0%) from three-point range.

IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: Guard Chit-Chat Wright

It’s been a rough go for Chit-Chat over the last three games and Jan Jensen mentioned after the Illinois game that she has been going through some issues with cramping that may be contributing to her shooting slump. During that three-game stretch, Iowa is 3-0, but Wright has put up just 14 points on 3-of-20 (15.0%) shooting. She’s also just 1-of-11 from three-point range but did go for 4-for-4 at the line in the final minute against the Illini. The Hawkeyes are going to need her contributions once postseason play commences. It’d be nice to see her get going in this one for some momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament.

KEY STAT TO WATCH: Three-point shooting

The Hawkeyes are going to have an advantage in the paint. They’re averaging 44.0 in the paint over their last four games, while the Badgers defense is giving up 36.5 per game in the paint during their eight-game losing streak. That means Wisconsin is going to have to do damage from three-point range and they are built to do that. They lead the Big Ten in made threes per game (8.2), while they rank 38th in the country in three-point percentage (34.7%). The Badgers have made 10+ threes in nine games, while Iowa is averaging just 5.9 threes per game since Taylor McCabe went down with a season-ending injury.

BREAKING DOWN THE BADGERS

A program that has struggled to get out of the basement of the Big Ten, Wisconsin has not made the NCAA Tournament since 2010. Their latest postseason appearance was the WNIT in ’24 under Marisa Moseley. Head coach Robin Pingeton is in her first season at the helm, previously spending time as the head coach at St Ambrose, Illinois State and Missouri. Pingeton played her collegiate basketball at St Ambrose under former Iowa head coach Lisa Bluder. This season, Wisconsin has a 13-15 overall record and a 5-12 mark in Big Ten play, which should be good enough for a WNIT berth. Last timeout, on Sunday, the Badgers fell to #2 UCLA 80-60 at Pauley Pavillion.

Looking at the rest of the projected starting five for the Badgers, Missouri State transfer guard Kyrah Daniels is the other big-time three-point threat in the starting lineup. Averaging 12.6 points per game in Big Ten play, Daniels can score at all three-levels but is mostly a midrange and three-point scorer. She’s second on the team in made threes (54), knocking down 32.5% of her 166 attempts, including nine games with 3+ made threes. Wisconsin will use her off screens, while she’s also a major kick‑out threat. As a midrange shooter, Daniels is 50-of-129 (38.8%) on non-paint two-point attempts. She is second on the team in assists (69), tallying 3+ assists in 12 games. Daniels is also second on the team in rebounding, averaging 6.32 total rebounds and 1.74 offensive boards per 40.

A veteran point guard, 5-foot-2 Ronnie Porter has been around for quite some time with the Badgers. Similar to a Chit-Chat Wright or a Molly Davis, Porter has learned how to play the game the way you have to when you are several inches shorter than everyone else on the court. She’s averaging just 6.5 points per game but has scored or assisted on 196 made field goals this season, which accounts for 27.4% of the team’s baskets. Porter is sixth in the Big Ten in assists (134) and has a 2.31 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is fourth best out of 18 Big Ten players with 100+ assists. As a scorer, Porter shoots just 40.4% from two-point range, but does have 26 made threes at a 37.1% clip. She also rebounds shockingly well for her size, averaging 5.61 total rebounds and 1.79 offensive rebounds per 40.

A transfer from NC State, Laci Steele, a 5-foot-11 junior guard, gives Wisconsin three starters at 5’11 or 6’0, which is the size you need if you aren’t playing a true power forward. She’s averaging 6.1 points per game in Big Ten play and has 22 threes at 36.1%, which is the third most on the team in conference action. Steele has made multiple threes in eight games, including a season-high four triples against Rutgers. When she’s gotten looks in the paint, just 1.64 per game, Steele has converted, shooting 58.7% (27-of-46) in the paint.

Rounding the Badgers projected starting five is Southern Illinois transfer center Gift Uchenna. A Third Team All-MVC selection last season, Uchenna set a single-season SIU record with 21 double-doubles. She hasn’t had the same minutes load at Wisconsin, averaging 17.9 per game, but has four double-doubles and big per-40 numbers (19.77 points and 15.29 rebounds). The issue is her efficiency. Even with 92.2% of her attempts coming in the paint, Uchenna is shooting just 56.9% (74-of-130) at the rim and 49.5% (100-of-202) in the paint. On the glass, Uchenna is averaging 6.24 offensive rebounds per 40 and has grabbed 4+ offensive boards in six Big Ten games, including a season-high nine against Nebraska.

Off the bench, Coach Pingeton uses several players and generally will go with a nine-player rotation. Dorja Zaja, a 6-foot-3 freshman from Croatia, has made the biggest impact in conference play, averaging 5.6 points, 2.3 rebounds and 12.9 minutes per contest. She’s really come alive as of late, scoring in double figures in three of her last four, shooting 62.2% (23-of-37) from the floor. Zaja can step outside the paint for shots, shooting 37.1% (13-of-35) on midrange jumpers.

A couple of guards to know that come off the bench, senior Lily Krahn and Illinois transfer Shay Bollin will get minutes in the rotation. Krahn is a three-point threat and a three-point threat only, with 86.6% of her shot attempts coming from behind the arc. She’s third on the team with 33 made threes at a 46.5% clip, knocking down multiple threes in seven games, including a career-high seven triples against UIC. As for Bollin, she’s a tall wing guard standing at 6-foot-3, but is shooting just 28.8% from the floor and 29.9% from three in Big Ten play. She will get on the defensive glass, with the majority of her 5.87 rebounds per 40 coming on that end.

Offense Heat Maps (CBB Analytics): Iowa and Wisconsin

Defense Heat Maps (CBB Analytics): Iowa and Wisconsin

A deeper look at the advanced stats behind the matchup between the Hawkeyes and Badgers…

THE PICK

Warren Nolan Projection: IOWA 81 WISCONSIN 62

Bart Torvik Projection: IOWA 79 WISCONSIN 64

It’s long been said that unless something drastically changes with these two programs, in all likelihood, it’s going to be considered an upset when the Hawkeyes winning streak against the Badgers ends. It would be a major one today, as Torvik (-15) and Warren Nolan (-19) both have Iowa as a heavy favorite. The Hawkeyes clinch the 2 seed at the Big Ten Tournament and get another step closer to a 2 seed at the NCAA Tournament with a win.

At one point, things were headed in the right direction for Wisconsin. They had a 5-4 record in Big Ten play, including a pair of ranked wins. Since, their eight-game losing streak doesn’t have much in the way of positives. They’re giving up 82.3 points per game, putting up just 63.8 per game and have lost by double-digits five times. If Iowa takes care of business on their end, meaning limiting turnovers, controlling the glass and locating Wisconsin’s perimeter shooters, they’ll win comfortably. IOWA 84 WISCONSIN 64