Israel says it will hold talks with Lebanon ‘soon’

The managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of major disruptions among countries affected by the war in the Middle East, including lasting economic effects, even if the shaky partial ceasefire holds. 

Kristalina Georgieva said that food insecurity as a result of transport and supply chain disruptions caused by the war could affect at least 45 million people. 

“Even in a best case, there will be no neat and clean return to the status quo ante,” she said as she opened the annual Spring Meetings co-hosted by the IMF and the World Bank. 

“Sharp increases in oil, gas, and fertilizer prices, together with transport bottlenecks, will inevitably lead to rising food prices and food insecurity,” said a joint statement on the meeting.

Georgieva also said that the IMF anticipated more requests for financial assistance in the near future. 

“Given the spillovers of the Middle East war, we expect near-term demand for IMF balance-of-payments support to rise to somewhere between $20 billion (roughly €17 billion) and $50 billion, with the lower bound prevailing if the ceasefire holds,” Georgieva said. 

She said the IMF would pare its 2026 global growth forecast in response to the conflict and the rising energy costs it prompted, even in the IMF’s “most hopeful scenario.” Georgiva also highlighted the “asymmetric” impacts of the crisis that will hit low-income and low-volume energy importers the hardest. 

“Spare a thought for the Pacific Island nations at the long end of the supply chain, wondering if fuel will still reach them in the wake of such a severe disruption,” she said.