Italy fail to reach 2026 World Cup after penalty shootout defeat by Bosnia and Herzegovina

For the third World Cup in a row, four-time champions Italy will not be there.

In 2017, they were beaten by Sweden in a play-off. Four years ago, they were knocked aside by North Macedonia. This time around, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the team ranked No 71 in the world, beat them on penalties to seal their place at the 2026 World Cup.

Gennaro Gattuso’s side took an early lead through Moise Kean, but a wild challenge from Alessandro Bastoni resulted in a red card shortly before the break, and from then, it was an uphill battle.

Bosnia failed to find the back of the net with any of their 21 shots on goal in the opening 78 minutes, but they finally broke the deadlock through substitute Haris Tabakovic, who bundled the ball over the line from close range after Edin Dzeko’s header was clawed away.

Neither team could force a breakthrough in extra time, and the game was decided on penalties. Substitute Pio Esposito blazed his penalty, Italy’s first, wildly over the bar, and his team-mate Bryan Cristante crashed his effort against the crossbar.

And just as he had against Wales in the previous round, teenager Kerim Alajbegovic found the back of the net with his spot kick, this time to help send Bosnia to the World Cup finals.

Bosnia take the fourth spot in Group B at this summer’s tournament, where they will face co-hosts Canada, Qatar and Switzerland.

Conor O’Neill, James Horncastle and Joshua Kloke analyse the key talking points…

How much will this latest failure hurt Italy?

The agony. Italy gave their all and got nothing.

This was an epic night in Zenica. When Kean gave Italy the lead, it felt as if it might be different this time. But no. Italy became the first former winner to fail to qualify for the World Cup for a third time in a row.

Unlike the other play-offs in 2017 and 2022, the fact that Italy got in front and had the chance to play with a little less tension gave the 500 travelling fans at the Bilino Polje hope. Bastoni’s red card at the end of the first half changed that.

Italy still had chances to double their lead with a man down. They didn’t take them. Kean missed a one-on-one and Esposito curled over. When Bosnia equalised, Italy could have crumbled. Instead, they stood firm. They kept going. Gianluigi Donnarumma kept them in it.

He felt Bosnia should have been reduced to 10 men. He could not, in the end, be their saviour in a shootout. Esposito took huge responsibility in stepping up for Italy’s first penalty. He blew it over the bar.

Esposito is Italy’s future. But their present is not going to another World Cup.

James Horncastle

Why was Bastoni sent off and how did it impact Italy?

After Kean’s opener, it looked like smooth sailing for Italy against a spirited but limited Bosnia side. Then came Bastoni’s moment of madness.

As half-time approached, Ermedin Demirovic headed the ball in behind for winger Amar Memic to chase. Bastoni was hot on his heels but was beaten to the loose ball and slid in wildly, bringing Memic down.

As the last man, referee Clement Turpin, who was also in charge when Italy lost to North Macedonia in that play-off four years ago, had little choice but to show a red card to Bastoni.

It was a reckless misjudgement from an experienced, title-winning defender. Memic still had plenty to do, some 30 yards from goal and towards the left edge of the box, with Riccardo Calafiori tracking back inside for Italy.

Calafiori’s reaction was telling, throwing his head into his hands in exasperation before Turpin had even reached for his pocket, and Bastoni knew exactly what was coming.

Tempers flared afterwards, with Donnarumma squaring up to Amar Dedic, perhaps out of frustration, given it was his misplaced goal kick that sparked the sequence of events that led to the dismissal.

Gattuso immediately withdrew centre-forward Mateo Retegui, bringing on Federico Gatti to fill the gap at centre-back. At half-time, he brought on right-back Marco Palestra for winger Matteo Politano, making it clear the focus was on holding on to the lead.

Italy largely parked the bus, as Bosnia struggled to break them down, but they did generate some good counter-attacking opportunities, most notably when Kean skied a one-on-one over the bar.

Eventually, Bosnia’s persistence did pay off when Tabakovic scrambled home the equaliser to take the game to extra time.

Conor O’Neill

How a 21-year-old from Wisconsin scored the vital penalty

Once the game went to penalties, you favoured Italy with Donnarumma between the posts. The Manchester City goalkeeper is a penalty specialist, and Bosnia’s chances were hit further when centre-forward Dzeko was unable to take one after injuring his shoulder late in extra time.

But once again, Bosnia ripped up the script.

They went first, with Benjamin Tahirovic coolly dispatching his effort into the bottom-left corner. Inter forward Esposito then handed them the advantage, skying his penalty over the bar. Bosnian goalscorer Tabakovic capitalised, smashing his effort into the top-right corner. Sandro Tonali and Alajbegovic then exchanged successful penalties, before Italy’s disaster deepened when Cristante smashed the bar.

Esmir Bajraktarevic, who was born in Wisconsin and was part of a USMNT training camp in 2024, stepped up with a World Cup place on the line. His effort squirmed under Donnarumma and over the line, sparking wild celebrations.

Conor O’Neill

Italy flopped, but what did Bosnia get right?

With a World Cup on the line, Bosnia had little need for extra motivation, but Italy provided it. Last Thursday, the Italian squad was filmed celebrating after Bosnia beat Wales on penalties in the play-off semi-final, clearly viewing them as weaker opponents. They’re not celebrating now.

Bastoni’s red card swung the momentum, but Bosnia deserve credit for their resilience and patience against an Italian side intent on sitting deep. Even before the dismissal, it had become an even contest after Italy’s early lead.

Gattuso had singled out Bosnia’s physicality before the match, and his side struggled to cope with it, particularly from crosses. That proved decisive for the equaliser, with Tabakovic scrambling home after Donnarumma saved Dzeko’s header.

Dzeko is now 40, but he still exhibits the sharp centre-forward play that sustained him at the elite level for so long. He has scored for Bosnia in every year since 2007, a record he preserved last Thursday against Wales. His smart passes, clever movement, and composed hold-up play provided a reliable focal point up front.

At the other end of the experience spectrum is Alajbegovic, the 18-year-old Red Bull Salzburg winger who came off the bench to inject thrust and creativity down the right. He already looks like a star in the making and one to watch next summer in an otherwise solid but unspectacular side.

The narrative beforehand was around Italy’s failure to reach the World Cup since 2014, but that also marks Bosnia’s last appearance in the tournament. They deserve just as much recognition for breaking the drought.

Conor O’Neill

Kean’s scoring streak is not enough for Italy

Italy finally have a reliable centre-forward — it’s just a shame we won’t see him at the World Cup.

Kean has now scored in each of their last six games, something that no Italian has managed since Salvatore Schillaci in 1990. Issues up front plagued their last two failed World Cup qualification bids, but the Fiorentina forward’s clinical edge nearly fired them to the tournament in the U.S., Canada and Mexico this summer.

The opener 15 minutes in owed much to Kean’s ruthlessness. Bosnia goalkeeper Nikola Vasilj’s loose pass was seized upon by Nicolo Barella, who quickly slipped Kean in on the edge of the box. One-on-one, he had the confidence to strike first time, rather than take extra touches to move closer to goal, whipping his finish into the top corner.

(Image Photo Agency/Getty Images)

Kean has developed a knack for these quickfire, one-touch finishes. He has taken 49 first-time shots in Serie A this season, a figure bettered only by Inter forward Lautaro Martinez (65).

Kean has grown into a clinical penalty-box striker, a far cry from the confidence-shorn figure who struggled at Everton in the Premier League.

That said, Kean had a great chance to make it 2-0 and relieve the pressure on 10-man Italy. Just before the hour mark, he seized on a loose sideways pass from Bosnian midfielder Ivan Basic on the halfway line, burst through, and was one-on-one with Vasilj, but skied his effort over.

But no other Italian player possesses the explosiveness to create that chance in the first place.

Conor O’Neill

How will Canada feel about facing Bosnia at the World Cup?

Canada will feel much better — at least at first glance — about having to face Bosnia instead of Italy.

Toronto is home to one of the largest contingents of people of Italian descent outside of Italy. There was a growing fear within the program that Canadian fans would have been outnumbered by fans in Italian blue jerseys.

Instead, the odds of Canada playing in front of a sea of red and white jerseys has increased thanks to Italy being knocked out.

Does that mean Canada is free and clear and en route to three points in their opener?

Hardly.

In coming back from 1-0 down to beat Italy, Bosnia proved once again they’re a resilient and pesky side. Canada will be facing plenty of internal pressure to get a result in their World Cup opener on June 12. They’ll now be facing a team that will be operating without as much pressure and can fancy their own chances of playing spoiler.

Joshua Kloke