Jay Bilas predicts outcomes of both Final Four games

The 2026 Final Four is set as Arizona, Illinois, Michigan and UConn represent the last four standing in this season’s 68-team NCAA Tournament field. Final Four games tip off Saturday night inside Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis with the 2026 national championship game slated for 9 pm ET Monday.

Final Four action begins at 6 pm ET Saturday between the second-seeded Huskies and No. 3-seeded Fighting Illini, with fellow No. 1 seeds Arizona and Michigan squaring off around 8:50 pm ET. Both games are being telecast on TBS, truTV and HBO Max.

Ahead of those epic matchups, ESPN basketball analyst Jay Bilas delivered a detailed breakdown of both Final Four games, including revealing which teams he expects to see in Monday night’s title game during an appearance on this week’s Triple Option podcast. Bilas, who picked the Wildcats to win it all on Selection Sunday, stuck to his guns and projected a national championship between Arizona and UConn.

Jay Bilas on No. 2 UConn vs. No. 3 Illinois (6 pm ET, Saturday)

“Even though Illinois is favored in the game (according to) Vegas, I’d favor UConn in the game,” Bilas said on Tuesday’s Triple Option podcast with FOX Sports analysts Mark Ingram, Urban Meyer, and Rob Stone. “What UConn has done over the last several years, I mean, since 1999, UConn has won six different national championships under three different coaches. … (This year’s) UConn is not as good as those two (2023-24) championship teams, but they’re good enough to win this thing. They just need to shoot it better than they did against Duke.”

While he remains high on the Huskies, Bilas had nothing but praise for Illinois, which he said is much improved from its 74-61 non-conference loss to UConn on Nov. 28. Bilas was especially complimentary of the Illini’s overseas recruiting efforts, including landing 6-foot-9 freshman David Mirkovic from Montenegro and 7-foot Ivisic brothers Tomislav and Zvonimir from Croatia.

“Illinois is really good offensively, they’ve recruited really well internationally so they’ve got a bunch of eastern European guys that are very skilled and can shoot it,” Bilas added. “They can all dribble, pass and shoot, so they can spread the floor on you. … And their defense has improved over the last month, month and a half.”

Bilas on No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 1 Michigan (8:50 pm ET, Saturday)

As far as the 1v1 matchup between Arizona and Michigan, Bilas acknowledged Saturday’s late game could be seen “as the de facto national championship” game. Ultimately, though, the ESPN analyst expects the Wildcats’ “old-school” physicality will require the Wolverines to play a perfect game just to keep Arizona from winning the game at the free throw line.

“Arizona is legit, but so is Michigan. Those are, in my view, the two best teams,” Bilas said. “… But Arizona is kind of old school and they’re an inside-out team, they don’t shoot a ton of 3s, what they do is they get to the foul line. They beat you up physically and get to the rim, and if you’re going to be physical with them, you’re going to wind up fouling them and spend the majority of the game at the foul line. … Michigan is going to have to play good defense without fouling, because if they put Arizona at the foul line, that’s going to be advantage Arizona.”