Kentucky vs. Iowa State, NCAA Tournament Second Round

Kentucky made some March Magic when Otega Oweh delivered an all-time NCAA Tournament moment in the overtime victory over Santa Clara. Will that serve as the spark for a deep run? Second-seeded Iowa State stands between Kentucky and a record 46th Sweet 16 appearance.

After taking some time to celebrate the dramatic victory, the KSR crew has moved on to the Cyclones. We share how we think Sunday afternoon’s game will unfold in another NCAA Tournament edition of the PARLOUR Pizza Predictions.

Tyler Thompson

When the bracket came out, I predicted Kentucky’s season to end in the second round vs. Iowa State. The Cyclones are legit, a relentless, pressing, physical squad, the type that’s given the Cats fits this season. Falling to a No. 2 seed as a No. 7 seed is expected, and Otega Oweh’s feel-good shot could provide a bit of a cushion if Kentucky loses.

…But, after seeing that shot, I can’t pick these Cats to lose. Call me a homer, call me a dreamer, call me a coward. After seeing Otega Oweh take matters into his own hands to give Kentucky extra life — and the Cats to respond in the way they did — my heart won’t let me follow my head. Joshua Jefferson likely not playing definitely helps matters.

Iowa State’s players and coach TJ Otzelberger were VERY confident on Saturday. My hope is that after Oweh’s shot, the Cats are the same. It’ll take repeat performances from Oweh and Aberdeen. Collin Chandler’s threes have to fall at some point, right? Brandon Garrison was massive vs. Santa Clara, but I foresee a bounce-back game by Malachi Moreno. Kentucky will need all of the above to pull off the upset.

Even if Oweh’s shot provided a cushy fall, the past 36 hours have been too fun for me to throw in the towel now. Go Cats.

Score: Kentucky 79, Iowa State 76

Drew Franklin

When the bracket came out, I thought this game would be the end of the road for Kentucky. However, with Iowa State’s injury report and the March magic we saw in Kentucky’s first-round win, there is a different feeling around the matchup. I can’t go against the game day vibes. I can go against my own bracket. And I will.

My new prediction: Kentucky advances after another NCAA thriller. Also, another Brandon Garrison game. Garrison will play well again, and Collin Chandler will hit the threes that he couldn’t in the first round, and the Wildcats move on to next week.

Score: Kentucky 75, Iowa State 73

Nick Roush

Chaos has yet to erupt in the NCAA Tournament. It’s happening today when the Cats take on Iowa State. The Cyclones aren’t taking any Hilton Magic with them to St. Louis. It’s time for Kentucky to cook up something special.

The Cats shot 35.8% from three during SEC play. That has dipped to 29.3% during postseason play. It’s a regression at the wrong time. Kentucky is due to return to the norm, and it needs to come from Collin Chandler, who’s only made six threes in the last six games. A couple of big ones will get the Cats rolling and allow Kentucky to apply some game pressure in the second half. Once that pressure is on, the worst free throw shooting team in the NCAA Tournament will have to hit some big ones down the stretch. Crucial misses will leave the door cracked for Kentucky to pull off the upset.

Score: Kentucky 74, Iowa State 72

Jack Pilgrim

This was the matchup that terrified me most when the bracket was revealed on Selection Sunday, Iowa State attacking Kentucky’s greatest weaknesses with ball security and physicality. The Cyclones are as good as it gets defensively, ranked No. 5 in the country and No. 4 in turnover rate, but also No. 6 in 3-point shooting and No. 15 in effective field-goal percentage — top 20 on both ends, according to KenPom.

Joshua Jefferson potentially being out, though, changes everything for me. He’s their best player and the heart of what they do as a program. It’s easy to rally around somebody like that and use his absence as added motivation, but teams don’t lose their do-it-all superstars and get better. This is a window of opportunity the Wildcats must take advantage of, no matter how good Iowa State is elsewhere.

Denzel Aberdeen must continue to take care of the basketball and shots have to fall. Collin Chandler has to step up from the perimeter and Malachi Moreno can’t afford another letdown performance coming off Santa Clara. Hopefully we don’t need 35 and a half-court buzzer-beater from Otega Oweh, but hey, if that’s what it takes.

Find a way to keep on dancing in Chicago. I believe these Wildcats do.

Score: Kentucky 80, Iowa State 78

Jacob Polacheck

Well, we can’t have a clean sweep, can we? It feels like Joshua Jefferson‘s injury has made everyone forget how good this Iowa State team has been this year. They’re not unbeatable, but they’re still very, very talented.

Milan Momcilovic is a legit NBA Draft candidate, averaging 17.1 points per game, while Tamin Lipsey is an experienced senior point guard who’s played in some big games. Iowa State is going to let Kentucky shoot the ball, and if the shots aren’t falling, Kentucky will have to find other ways to score. I’m picking the Cats to keep it close, but I’ll be the Debbie Downer here. Cats lose by five.

Score: Iowa State 81, Kentucky 76

Adam Luckett

Kentucky and Iowa State are once again meeting in the NCAA Tournament. What should you expect? This is going to be a rock fight.

The Cyclones are very unlikely to have All-American forward Joshua Jefferson in the lineup. This changes things. T.J. Otzelberger’s team runs offense through him and depends on his playmaking for both offense and defense. His absence will be felt. The biggest impact will come on the offensive end, where the Cyclones will need a new initiator and creating clean looks for Milan Momcilovic should be difficult. Meanwhile, Iowa State’s turnover-heavy defense will trap UK constantly and will force turnovers. That’s something that the Cats will have to overcome.

Iowa State ranks-sub 200 in adjusted pace. Expect Otzelberger to try and slow this game down. That means winning with defense. This could very well be a race to 65 points. We’re getting a rock fight in St. Louis. I trust Kentucky’s offense just a little bit more.

Pope has coached against Otzelberger twice and has never trailed by more than five points. The Cats play through turnovers, get a good game from Denzel Aberdeen, some tough buckets by Mo Dioubate around the rim, and play good defense.

Iowa State will need turnovers and a good three-point shooting game. The Big 12 squad gets the former and not the latter. This one is ugly. UK gets a lead early and holds on in the second half.

Score: Kentucky 70, Iowa State 65

Zack Geoghegan

Iowa State’s system runs through Joshua Jefferson. He does a little bit of everything offensively. How will the Cyclones make it work if he’s out of the lineup? There will be a drop-off in production, but just how much? And will it be enough for Kentucky to fully take advantage? Milan Momcilovic is still awesome and a future NBA player. Whatever UK does today, it cannot include a big shooting performance from Momcilovic. That should be easier to make happen without Jefferson running the show.

Remember that Iowa State closed the regular season schedule with a 4-4 record. This is not a juggernaut of an opponent, though it is still a highly impressive one. The threes just have to start falling for Kentucky. It’s as simple as that for me. Another 1-9 performance from deep by Collin Chandler is not going to cut it. I think we’re in for a big Kam Williams game on both ends of the floor. He hits a trio of triples to lead Kentucky back to the Sweet 16.

I can’t change my prediction on the KSR bracket preview show now. UK still has multiple more wins to go in this tournament.

Score: Kentucky 74, Iowa State 70

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No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Iowa State: How to Watch

• Tipoff: 2:45 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS (Spero Dedes, Jim Spanarkel, Jon Rothstein)
• Local Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• AM: 840 WHAS, 630 WLAP
• FM: 98.1 WBUL
• Online: iHeart Radio
• Sirius XM: 201

You can also follow along on the KSR LIVE BLOG, which will start a few hours before tipoff, and join the conversation on KSBoard.