Men’s Final Four staff predictions: Why Arizona is (still) our favorite to win

Is Arizona-Michigan on Saturday the real national championship game?

It’s a narrative you’ll hear a lot between now and Saturday night, as the Wildcats and Wolverines both spent time as the No. 1 team in the country this season and have looked dominant in the NCAA Tournament. It’s also backed up by the results of The Athletic’s staff Final Four predictions. Nineteen of the 24 writers and editors we surveyed this week picked Arizona or Michigan to cut down the nets, with the Wildcats gaining 12 votes alone.

Final Four picks

While every team received at least one vote to win the title, our consensus choice: Arizona over Connecticut.

Arizona was also the favorite in our consensus staff bracket at the start of the tournament. Here’s why some of our staff made the predictions they did:

CJ Moore: Michigan. Motivated Michigan has been the best team in college basketball this year. When playing with an edge, no one has a better A-game. Arizona is a close second. Winner of that semifinal will likely decide the national champion.

Brendan Marks: Arizona. Jaden Bradley is arguably the best, most accomplished guard left standing, and that’s a huge reason why I’m picking Arizona to win its first national title in almost three decades. With Bradley and Brayden Burries in tow, I’d argue Tommy Lloyd has the most complete (and healthiest) backcourt left standing, including the clutchest guard this season in Bradley. Beyond that, Arizona’s combination of length and depth makes it a matchup nightmare for anyone — even Michigan. And if the Wildcats knock down a few 3-pointers, as they did against Purdue? Well, good luck stopping them. It might be sacrilegious to pick against Dan Hurley in a national title game, but that’s how much I believe in Lloyd’s roster.

Lindsay Schnell: Arizona. Have you seen the Wildcats play? They love to pound the ball inside, which is likely to be especially helpful in a dome, when teams often shoot poorly. Arizona has been my title pick since December. I’m not abandoning them now.

Joe Rexrode: Arizona. Michigan’s best is better than anyone else’s, but Arizona is more consistent and has more matchup answers for the Wolverines than anyone else. Another win will be required after the headliner semifinal, by the way, and the Wildcats get it over former Arizona guard Kylan Boswell and the Fighting Illini.

Justin Williams: I’m a “one bracket” believer. I’ll enter multiple bracket pools, but always make the same selections. This year, I’ve got Arizona winning it all — and if that happens, I’m in good shape to be on the podium in just about every one of the pools I entered. Despite having a front-row view of UConn’s resilience and Michigan’s dominance through the first two weekends of the tournament, I’m sticking with the Wildcats. You say self-serving, I say steadfast, etc.

Jim Root: Michigan and Arizona are essentially equals, but the Wolverines have more of a perimeter alternative to their offense than the Wildcats. And I think Michigan is a tier ahead of UConn in the title game.

Christopher Kamrani: Michigan. It’s the Big Ten’s world, and we’re all just living in it.

Matthew Ho: Arizona and Michigan have been dominant throughout this regular season and tournament. However, the Wildcats’ depth will put them over the top. They essentially have seven above-average starters who are playing their role. Michigan’s depth is a bit sketchy, especially at guard.

Jason Kirk: UConn. The Huskies have obtained the Mandate of Heaven.

John Hollinger: Michigan. I had Michigan from the word go and am not changing my tune now. I don’t think Arizona can beat it just shooting paint 2s, and I was at the game in Champaign where Yaxel Lendeborg kept Keaton Wagler in check. Anything can happen in single elimination, but these Wolverines are an absolute unit.

Daniel Shirley: UConn. I don’t believe UConn has the best team playing this weekend, but it has the best coaching staff, and I can’t make myself pick against Danny Hurley and his crew.

Mitch Light: Arizona has been the most consistently elite team this season. At its best, Michigan might be better, but I trust Arizona a bit more.

Scott Dochterman: Michigan. Is this the year the Big Ten finally breaks its 26-year title drought? Michigan finally has the team to end it, although Arizona is formidable. I can make a case for any of the four, but the Wolverines’ elite players at nearly every position and a home-court advantage on Saturday could prove pivotal. If it’s Michigan-Illinois, expect the same type of game we saw in Champaign at the end of the regular season.

Ralph D. Russo: Arizona. I picked Illinois vs. Arizona before the tournament, so why stop now? I also buy the conventional wisdom that Arizona vs. Michigan is the de facto national championship game. I could flip a coin between Wildcats-Wolverines, but I’ll take Arizona’s explosiveness and size. Illini-Wildcats could be a lot fun, too, because it’s not as if Illinois is going to try to muck up the game and try to slow the Arizona freight train. I’ll stick with the team I picked from the start: Bear Down.

Pete Sampson: Arizona has the size and speed to negate Michigan, something the Wolverines have not faced often this season. UConn is probably the best-coached team in the Final Four, but the Wildcats’ versatility in the frontcourt wins out.

Chris Vannini: Arizona is the deepest and most complete team. Whoever wins that semi will win the title.

Ira Gorawara: UConn. I have realized that I need to believe in all things Dan Hurley.

Eric Single: UConn. I’m done being wrong about the Huskies. (Or am I?) They just beat the No. 1 overall seed despite shooting 22 percent from 3-point range, and they will show up in Indianapolis convinced that no team is battle-tested like they are. The more Silas Demary Jr. gets comfortable with playing through the high ankle sprain that has limited him all tournament, the easier it gets to see UConn grinding out two more wins against the odds.

Matt Brown: Illinois. The sense seems to be that Arizona and Michigan are a step above, perhaps even playing a de facto national title game in the semifinals. I tend to distrust such proclamations and will veer against the grain to the Illini, who beat my original national championship pick, Houston, in the Sweet 16.

Austin Green: Arizona. I tried. I held out as long as I could. But at the risk of Arizona State revoking my graduate degree, I can no longer ignore my eyes and my brain. Arizona has too high a floor and is too well-coached to not cut down the nets in Indianapolis.

Mark Cooper: Michigan. From the time Michigan blew out full-strength Gonzaga by 40 points in November to last week’s 33-point drubbing of Tennessee, it’s felt clear that the Wolverines’ A-game is better than anyone else’s. I’ll guess Dusty May gets the best out of his team two more times.

David Ubben: Arizona. The Wildcats have been the best team for most of the season and spend two nights proving it.

Austin Meek: Michigan. Of the three most dominant teams — Michigan, Arizona and Duke — Michigan’s A-game was the best of the bunch. The Wolverines hadn’t played their best since clinching the Big Ten and losing L.J. Cason to a knee injury, but they found their top gear again in the NCAA Tournament. Elliot Cadeau’s play in March has been the X-factor.

Tobias Bass: Arizona wins the first national championship west of Waco since 1997. The Wildcats have been dominant on both ends of the floor.

Most Outstanding Player predictions

Naturally, the question of the NCAA Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player is aligned with which team one picks to win the title. So Arizona players garnered more votes than any other school. But because of the Wildcats’ depth and shared star power — five players average in double figures — Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg prevailed with the most votes:

Not since Hakeem Olajuwon in 1983 has the MOP come from a team that didn’t win the national title.