Michigan vs. UConn expert predictions for the men’s NCAA Tournament national championship

INDIANAPOLIS — Before the start of the men’s NCAA Tournament, 28 reporters and editors made their predictions for The Athletic’s consensus tournament bracket. Three picked Michigan to win the championship; none picked UConn, with the Huskies appearing in just two Final Fours.

Arizona and Duke entered the tournament as the favorites instead. But the Wolverines pummeled the Wildcats in Saturday’s national semifinal, and the Huskies eliminated the Blue Devils on the shot of the tournament last week.

With a fresh look at Monday’s matchup, 22 staffers made their title game pick. Michigan, which has defeated each of its five tournament opponents by double figures, enters the tilt as our favorite by a 17-5 margin. But some won’t count out Dan Hurley’s pursuit of a third national championship in four years.

Here are our picks for the game, which tips at 8:50 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Michigan-UConn score predictions

The case for Michigan

On top of Michigan being a historically dominant team, it is perfectly equipped to deal with UConn. The way to defend the Huskies is to switch off-ball screening action. Michigan does that all the time. Anything can happen in 40 minutes and Yaxel Lendeborg’s injury is a concern, but how can you bet against the Wolverines at this point? — CJ Moore

I’ve learned my lesson, and will no longer doubt Michigan and Dusty May. My apologies for previous, non-UM picks. — Lindsay Schnell

Put these teams against each other at full strength 10 times and Michigan wins eight. As Hurley correctly pointed out Sunday, all it takes is the right single-game performance Monday, and UConn has some magic going. Injuries on both sides muddle things a bit. But Michigan’s dominance is clear, and clearly the story of this tournament. — Joe Rexrode

UConn becomes the first opponent to hold Michigan under 90 points in this tournament, but it’s not nearly enough to slow down the Wolverines machine. The combination of Michigan’s size and depth is too much for the Huskies to handle. — Justin Williams

Michigan’s dominance reached a hilarious stage Saturday: The Wolverines were intentionally missing shots to create easy putbacks for their bigs. Against the team many considered to be No. 1 in the country … until Saturday. Michigan wins, and UConn goes 18-2 in the tournament over a four-year stretch, with both losses to the national champions. — Mark Cooper

Arizona’s Tommy Lloyd made a great point late Saturday night when he said you need to play the Wolverines a few times to get comfortable and figure out how best to play them. He suggested it might explain why Michigan steamrolled so many solid teams during the nonconference season only to play tighter games late in the Big Ten season. Those conference teams had a better understanding of what they were up against. UConn won’t have the same luxury. — Doug Haller

The case for UConn

As the fish swimming upstream, and quite possibly stupidly so, I just refuse to bet against a coach who has never lost a Final Four game. Michigan, obviously, is the toughest foe that Hurley has faced on this stage, and may have insurmountable size, but don’t discount how difficult UConn is to game plan for on a single day’s rest. UConn will probably need to make double-digit 3s, somehow contain the most monstrous frontcourt in the country and almost certainly require another heavy sprinkle of postseason magic — but after two boring Final Four games, give me the Huskies to pull one more rabbit out of their hat. — Brendan Marks

Elliot Cadeau’s dominant night against Arizona has shaken my faith that the Huskies have the “dawg in them” edge in this matchup, but I would be very surprised if UConn captain Alex Karaban shoots as poorly from 3-point range as he has the last two rounds (a combined 2-for-13 against Duke and Illinois). He last went three straight games without multiple 3s in late January. Cue the storybook splashdowns on the final night of his college career. — Eric Single

UConn stumbled more than once this season, including as recently as last weekend. It survived every time, and in powerful fashion. That’s the precedent UConn established — and there’s no going back now. — Jillian Thaw