MLB Win-Loss Predictions for Every Team in 2026
NL Central
5 of 6
In theory, the Brewers probably shouldn’t be able to withstand the loss of Peralta. Although, we’ve said the same thing the last two years with Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames, only for Milwaukee to wind up winning the NL Central.
So while it is a bit scary how much the Brewers are relying on Brandon Woodruff—who has made 23 starts since the beginning of the 2023 campaign—two-time defending NL Manager of the Year Pat Murphy has earned a bit of blind faith. Recent history tells us he’ll make a starting rotation led by Woodruff and Jacob Misiorowski work.
The good news for Murphy is that his starting rotation probably doesn’t need to be great to have regular season success, because Milwaukee’s bullpen should be tremendous. Returning are Abner Uribe (1.67 ERA in 75 games in 2025) and Trevor Megill (30 saves, All-Star selection in 2025), while lefty Ángel Zerpa could prove to be one of the more under-the-radar shrewd acquisitions of the winter.
Particularly if Jackson Chourio begins to realize his superstar potential as part of a lineup that also includes Brice Turang, Christian Yelich and William Contreras, the Brewers should be able to win their fifth division title in the last six seasons.
Cubs fans should be excited that the team added Bregman, but while he is considered one of the best leaders in the sport, he’s probably a worse player at this point than Kyle Tucker, who Jed Hoyer and company made no effort to re-sign this winter.
Once again, the Cubs feel like a lineup where there’s a lot of good, with pieces like Bregman, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Ian Happ. But is there a superstar that can consistently carry Craig Counsell’s lineup? That’s fair to wonder.
There also seem to be a wide variance of possible outcomes for the starting rotation. Will Shota Imanaga pitch more like he did in 2024 than 2025? Can Matthew Boyd replicate the career-year he had at 34 years old? Will Cabrera stay healthy? A rotation that also will include Cade Horton and Jameson Taillon has a high ceiling, but it’s not difficult to imagine things going south, either.
Overall, the Cubs feel like a good team, but owner Tom Ricketts doesn’t flex the financial muscle of the organization nearly enough, which is why they seem more likely to be an 89-win club than a 99-win one.
The Reds did sneak into the postseason during Terry Francona’s first season as manager, though that’s perhaps more indicative of how many teams reach the postseason under the current format than anything. The Reds got stomped by the Dodgers in the NLWCS after sneaking into the playoffs as an 83-win club.
While Option A appeared to be luring Schwarber away from Philadelphia this offseason, the Reds did add a much-needed slugger in the form of Eugenio Suárez, who returns to Cincinnati following the second 49-homer campaign of his career. Barring a breakout season from Matt McLain or something else unexpected, the Reds do still seem to lack enough thump in their lineup, though.
More discouraging is that ace Hunter Greene had arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow in March, which likely will cost him at least half the season. That’s bad considering the top of the rotation is the strength of this team, but behind Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo also has trouble staying healthy.
Prediction: 80-82 (Under)
With the offseason additions of veterans like Marcell Ozuna, Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn and Gregory Soto, the Pirates should be better than the 71-91 record they posted last season.
It’s still reasonable to be skeptical about whether they’ll be good enough for reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes to make his first postseason appearance in 2026.
Bubba Chandler—the No. 11 prospect in baseball—will be in the starting rotation for the Buccos to begin the season, giving them the potential to have one of the senior circuit’s better groups of starters with him, Skenes and Mitch Keller headlining.
Konnor Griffin, the No. 1 prospect in the sport, isn’t going to make the Opening Day roster, but the 19-year-old is likely to debut at some point in 2026. The aforementioned Harper came away very impressed by Griffin during Spring Training:
Ultimately, the Pirates are getting better, but might be another year or two away. And by that point, Skenes will be getting closer to free agency, at which point Pittsburgh may consider trading him.
Prediction: 76-86 (Under)
Chaim Bloom has earned the benefit of the doubt in terms of building pipelines of talent based on his prior work in Tampa Bay and Boston. But before the potential payoff in St. Louis, there might have to be a year or two of unprecedented leanness at Busch Stadium.
In his first offseason as president of baseball operations for the Cardinals, Bloom traded away Willson Contreras, Gray and Donovan. His most notable offseason signing was Dustin May, who, while talented, has pitched just 324 innings in six MLB seasons.
The Cardinals haven’t lost more than 100 games in a season since 1908. Even if there are some interesting young pieces in St. Louis with Masyn Winn, Iván Herrera and JJ Wetherholt, the 2025 Cardinals may very well challenge that streak.
Prediction: 62-100 (Under)
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