The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL Week 8 slate.
Sunday
Giants (+7) over Eagles
The Giants ran out of gas in Denver, but one thing is clear: Big Blue have juice. Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo has the talented smack-talking group enough belief to get some wins. Saquon Barkley has looked like a shell of himself this year behind an offensive line that is not as historically great as we’ve seen in year’s past. A.J. Brown is out, we could have a one possession game in the City of Brotherly Love.
Jets (+6.5) over BENGALS
No clue who is playing quarterback and don’t care. It’s been bad, but the Jets defense is slowly coming around. It is allowing just 197.1 passing yards per game, among the league’s best marks. Bengals offensive line fails them here. Jets win?
Packers (-3.5) over STEELERS
Is Aaron Rodgers still that bad man? Even for him, this would be a shocker. At his advanced age we know Rodgers doesn’t want to get hit much. Green Bay is No. 6 is pass rush win rate and run stop win rate. Pittsburgh’s defense has been inept for most of the season. Biggest edge of the day per my betting model. Projected score: Packers 25.43, Steelers 19.91.
Bills (-7.5) over PANTHERS
Off a bye week, the Bills appear to be much healthier than they were in past weeks. Buffalo’s run defense is not good, but I suspect that it improves at least a bit with the return of nose tackle Ed Oliver. Bryce Young is doubtful vs. Josh Allen off a bye week. The Bills should get right here even with the Panthers playing some better football.
PATRIOTS (-7) over Browns
It could be a rock fight in New England. But the Patriots don’t need to rely on the run to survive much. The Patriots are among the league’s best at passing the ball thanks to Drake Maye’s emergence. If New England can stop the run (3.4 YPC allowed, third best), Browns QB Dillon Gabriel will wilt.
RAVENS (-7.5) over Bears
Lamar Jackson is expected back, and the Ravens need to get it together quickly. If you looked at this line preseason, you’d probably have Baltimore closer to 9.5. Well, it looks like the Ravens are healthy for Sunday. Throw their stats out the window, Baltimore wins easy, whether it’s running (Bears allow 5.3 YPC, second-worst) or through the air (7.4 yards per pass attempt allowed, fifth-worst).
FALCONS (-7.5) over Dolphins
Blowouts left and right for Miami. The Falcons looked bad last week against the 49ers but get right here. The Dolphins never stop the run (worst in YPC allowed), and Bijan Robinson is a specimen looking to feast. Falcons dominate.
49ers (+2.5) over TEXANS
I trust DVOA more than most stats. Often, yards per carry allowed stats align well with DVOA over the run. Not here. The Texans have allowed 3.5 YPC this year (fifth best) but are 17th against the run per DVOA. Houston is beat up at receiver, and though the 49ers still aren’t healthy, I’ll back them nonetheless, as Kyle Shanahan gets the better of his protégé, DeMeco Ryans.
Buccaneers (-3.5) over SAINTS
This line has moved from 6.5 to 3.5 in a week. That’s far enough for me. Emeka Egbuka is off the injury report, and though Mike Evans is hurt, that isn’t worth three points to the spread. Never a normal game in the NFC South, but here we are backing the favorite. Shiver me timbers, the Bucs steal the Saints booty for another win and cover.
BRONCOS (-3.) over Cowboys
Let’s fade the Cowboys for another week. Dallas still has the No. 30 ranked defense per DVOA, while allowing the most yards per game this season and fourth-most yards per game in their past three games. The defensive improvement has been vastly overstated. Good matchup for the Broncos. They take another one at Mile High.
COLTS (-14.5) over Titans
The Colts are real, I was wrong. My model has this spread pretty much dead on, with a projected score of 29.94 to 14.43. The matchup is just a nightmare for the Titans, as their run defense is fifth-worst against the run while the Colts lead in most major rushing stats behind Offensive Player of the Year favorite Jonathan Taylor.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday
CHIEFS (-11.5) over Commanders: Big problems in Washington. The only way the Chiefs lose is they allow Washington to rip off big runs. Don’t see that as likely with the Chiefs coming in as a top-10 run defense in their past three games. As always with the Chiefs, it depends how much they actually want to win comfortably. I don’t think Marcus Marriota is the guy to keep the Commanders in it if they go down early.
Last week: 5-9
Season: 43-56.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
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