No. 9 Kentucky vs. No. 1 Florida (SECT): Preview, Odds & How to Watch
Two down, three to go, boys and girls. This is the one we’ve all had our eyes on from the moment the bracket was finalized, a shot at revenge after back-to-back regular season losses during Florida’s 11-game winning streak. The Gators are a wagon, but Kentucky has been the most competitive of any SEC team as of late. Can they flip it into a double-digit upset to survive and advance to Saturday for the first time since 2022? It’d certainly help the Cats’ seeding on Selection Sunday, likely pushing them up to the No. 6 seed line with a victory.
What will it take? KSR previews the matchup before things get rolling at Bridgestone Arena.
[9] Kentucky vs. [1] Florida: How to Watch, Listen
- Tipoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
- TV: SEC Network (Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes, Alyssa Lang)
- Local Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
- AM: 840 WHAS, 630 WLAP
- FM: 98.1 WBUL
- Online: iHeart Radio
- Sirius XM: 106 or 190
You can also follow along on the KSR LIVE BLOG, which will start before tipoff, and join the conversation on KSBoard.
Lock in for March Madness with KSR Plus! We’re giving you behind-the-scenes Kentucky Basketball intel you won’t find anywhere else.
Season Rewind
Kentucky: KenPom 28
- 11/4: 77-51 W vs. Nicholls
- 11/7: 107-59 W vs. Valparaiso
- 11/11: 96-88 L at No. 12 Louisville
- 11/14: 99-53 W vs. Eastern Illinois
- 11/18: 83-66 L vs. No. 17 Michigan State
- 11/21: 88-46 W vs. Loyola (Md.)
- 11/26: 104-54 W vs. Tennessee Tech
- 12/2: 67-64 L vs. No. 16 North Carolina
- 12/5: 94-59 L vs. No. 11 Gonzaga
- 12/9: 103-67 W vs. NC Central
- 12/13: 72-60 W vs. Indiana
- 12/20: 78-66 W vs. No. 22 St. John’s
- 12/23: 99-85 W vs. Bellarmine
- 1/3: 89-74 L at No. 14 Alabama
- 1/7: 73-68 L vs. Missouri
- 1/10: 92-68 W vs. Mississippi State
- 1/14: 75-74 W at LSU
- 1/17: 80-78 W at No. 24 Tennessee
- 1/21: 85-80 W vs. Texas
- 1/24: 72-63 W vs. Ole Miss
- 1/27: 80-55 L at No. 18 Vanderbilt
- 1/31: 85-77 W at No. 15 Arkansas
- 2/4: 94-78 W vs. Oklahoma
- 2/7: 74-71 W vs. No. 25 Tennessee
- 2/14: 92-83 L at No. 14 Florida
- 2/17: 86-78 L vs. Georgia
- 2/21: 75-74 L at Auburn
- 2/24: 72-63 W at South Carolina
- 2/28: 91-77 W vs. No. 25 Vanderbilt
- 3/3: 96-85 W at Texas A&M
- 3/11: 87-82 W vs. LSU (SEC Tournament)
- 3/12: 78-72 W vs. Missouri (SEC Tournament)
Florida: KenPom 4
- 11/3: 93–87 L vs. Arizona
- 11/6: 104–64 W vs. North Florida
- 11/11: 78–76 W vs. Florida St.
- 11/16: 82–68 W vs. Miami (FL)
- 11/21: 80–45 W vs. Merrimack
- 11/27: 84–80 L vs. TCU
- 11/28: 90–78 W vs. Providence
- 12/2: 67–66 L at Duke
- 12/9: 77–73 L at Connecticut
- 12/13: 80–70 W vs. George Washington
- 12/17: 102–61 W vs. Saint Francis
- 12/21: 90–60 W vs. Colgate
- 12/29: 94–72 W vs. Dartmouth
- 1/3: 76–74 L at Missouri
- 1/6: 92–77 W vs. Georgia
- 1/10: 91–67 W vs. Tennessee
- 1/13: 96–79 W at Oklahoma
- 1/17: 98–94 W at Vanderbilt
- 1/20: 79–61 W vs. LSU
- 1/24: 76–67 L vs. Auburn
- 1/28: 95–48 W at South Carolina
- 2/1: 100–77 W vs. Alabama
- 2/7: 86–67 W at Texas A&M
- 2/11: 86–66 W at Georgia
- 2/14: 92-83 W vs. No. 25 Kentucky
- 2/17: 76-62 W vs. South Carolina
- 2/21: 94-75 W at Ole Miss
- 2/25: 84-71 W at Texas
- 2/28: 111-77 W vs. No. 20 Arkansas
- 3/3: 108-74 W vs. Mississippi State
- 3/7: 84-77 W at Kentucky
Series History
Kentucky leads the all-time series 111-44, including a 13-4 mark in the SEC Tournament. The two teams have played twice, though, this season, with Florida winning both contests. First, it was a 92-83 victory in Gainesville on Valentine’s Day, Xaivian Lee leading the way with 22 and followed by Urban Klavzar with 19. Denzel Aberdeen (19) and Collin Chandler (18) led the Cats in that one. Round two was an 84-77 win for the Gators, led by Thomas Haugh with 20, Boogie Fland with 16, Alex Condon with 14 and Rueben Chinyelu with 13. Otega Oweh had 28 and Aberdeen added 15.
Todd Golden is 3-4 in his career against UK.
Kentucky vs. Florida Odds
The Wildcats have opened as 11.5-point underdogs with the over/under set at 159.5.
That aligns with the computers, which unanimously like the Gators, starting with KenPom giving the Cats just an 18 percent chance to pull off the upset and a projected score of 83-73. Elsewhere, Bart Torvik is on the same page, giving Mark Pope’s team just a 16 percent shot to win with a projected score of 84-73. At least ESPN’s Matchup Predictor isn’t totally counting out UK with the blue and white given a 25.1 percent chance.
Kentucky Potential Starters
#1 – Denzel Aberdeen
6-5 – 195 – GUARD – SENIOR
13.1 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 3.6 APG
#5 – Collin Chandler
6-5 – 205 – GUARD – SOPHOMORE
10.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.2 APG
#00 – Otega Oweh
6-4 – 215 – GUARD – SENIOR
18.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.7 APG
#4 – Andrija Jelavic
6-11 – 225 – FORWARD – JUNIOR
5.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 0.7 APG
#24 – Malachi Moreno
7-0 – 250 – CENTER – FRESHMAN
8.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.8 APG
Florida Potential Starters
#0 – Boogie Fland
6-3 – 185 – GUARD – SOPHOMORE
11.6 PPG, 3.8 APG, 2.6 RPG
#1 – Xaivian Lee
6-4 – 180 – GUARD – SENIOR
11.6 PPG, 4.2 APG, 3.8 RPG
#10 – Thomas Haugh
6-9 – 215 – FORWARD – JUNIOR
17.2 PPG, 2.0 APG, 6.1 RPG
#21 – Alex Condon
6-11 – 230 – FORWARD – JUNIOR
14.8 PPG, 3.6 APG, 7.6 RPG
#9 – Rueben Chinyelu
6-10 – 260 – CENTER – JUNIOR
11.4 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 1.1 BPG
Statistical Comparison
(via Kentucky’s game notes)
Fun stats from UK’s game notes:
- Kentucky has won 31 SEC Tournament Championships all-time, 23 more than Alabama, who has the second-most SEC Tournament titles with eight. The Wildcats’ last SEC Tournament win came in 2018. UK has a 138-31 record in the event all-time. The Cats are 13-4 against the Gators in the event, including 4-1 in the quarterfinals. The last SEC Tournament meeting between the teams came in the 2015 quarterfinals.
- Florida enters on an 11-game winning streak. During the 11-game streak, nine of the wins have been by double-digits. The only two single-digit victories were against Kentucky.
- Kentucky has wins over LSU and Missouri on the first two days of the tournament, the first time UK has won two games at the SEC Tournament since 2018.
- Otega Oweh enters Thursday’s matchup having scored in double figures in 32 of 33 games. He is up to 1,192 points during his UK career. Oweh needs 21 more points to pass Bill Spivey for the most points by a Kentucky player in his first two seasons in the program.
Pregame Storylines
CATS ‘VERY HUNGRY’ FOR REVENGE
Kentucky couldn’t afford to overlook either of its first two opponents, but everyone knows what this particular matchup means to the Wildcats. We have the Todd Golden jabs at the $22M roster, back-to-back losses, the Denzel Aberdeen storyline, chatter of Florida passing UK in the SEC hierarchy — the list goes on.
Now that the Cats took care of business against the two sets of Tigers, all eyes are on revenge against the Gators with a major statement on the table.
“Very hungry,” Brandon Garrison said. “We’ve been talking about this. We try not to get too big-headed coming into this game because we know we had to take care of those first two games. But we’re here now, and we’re just ready to get it on.”
SLOWING DOWN THE THREE-HEADED MONSTER IN THE FRONTCOURT
When you think of these Gators, you think of their superstar frontcourt. Thomas Haugh leads the way with 17.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.0 APG and 1.0 SPG, followed by Alex Condon with 14.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 3.6 APG and 1.4 BPG and Rueben Chinyelu with 11.4 PPG, 11.7 RPG and 1.1 BPG.
With the unique combination of size, skill and versatility, Florida ranks No. 1 in rebounding margin, average and on the offensive glass while also sitting at No. 7 in defensive two-point field goal percentage with the No. 5 overall defense and No. 8 offense in adjusted efficiency.
“They know exactly who they are. They know exactly how they do this. They’re a dominant force,” Pope said before the first matchup at Florida.
AAU VIBES FOR THE WILDCATS
How are the Cats overcoming the fatigue that comes with playing three games in three days — with as many as five in five? By going back to their AAU days, when it was non-stop basketball from sunrise to sunset on long weekends out of town.
If they could do it as teenagers without high-major strength and conditioning programs, they can do it now.
“I feel like it just brings us back to our old AAU games, when you play like three in a row in one day,” Garrison said. “So, you know, it’s second nature.”
“I was thinking about that during warm-ups,” Collin Chandler added. “Like, man, this is just like traveling for a tournament. It’s fun, having those memories flood back.”
NCAA TOURNAMENT IMPLICATIONS
Florida is currently a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and will finish no worse than a No. 2 seed. The Gators’ resume speaks for itself. As for the Wildcats, there is some real movement on the line, sitting at a No. 7 right now, but a win likely moving them up to a No. 6. Go on a real run to the SEC Tournament title game? There’s a chance they leap all the way up to a No. 5. A loss likely keeps UK at a No. 7, but potentially slipping to a No. 8.
That’s quite the range with some fun possibilities to be rewarded for making some magic in Nashville. Can they pull it off as an 11.5-point underdog?
Join The Discussion on KSBoard
Want to interact with the KSR crew during the game? Consider joining the conversation on KSBoard, where we’ll be sharing live updates from Bridgestone Arena while also answering questions and providing real-time analysis (and probably complaining about the officiating).
Rapid Reaction on the KSR YouTube Channel
Miss the game? KSR’s got you covered with a Rapid Reaction immediately after the game in Nashville, live on the KSR YouTube Channel. We’ll also have wall-to-wall postgame coverage on the website, including highlights, comments from Mark Pope and the players, stats, and takeaways.
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