Olympic men’s hockey teams ranked by their chance at gold

The Winter Olympics moved on to the knockout stage on Monday, with teams settling the pecking order out of group play. Everyone is still technically in the fight, so we move now to ranking every team’s shot at gold down the stretch.

It was a neat experience for Italy. Realistically, there was just no way this team could hang in the a tournament full of NHL players while having none. Credit where it’s due to the host nation’s goaltenders, who stood on their head for much of the tournament while being peppered with dozens of shots — and never really collapsing.

France is more or less interchangeable with Italy. They get the slight edge for playing in a more difficult group, and the bulk of their negative +/- coming against Canada in a 10-2 route.

Latvia showed some real heart this tournament despite being outmatched in talent. Their win over Germany was big, and they played hard against all of their opponents. No shame for how this team performed without elite NHL talent on the roster.

I’ll be honest: I expected a lot more out of Germany than they showed. A strong opening against Denmark gave way to disappointing performances against Latvia and the USA, with neither Leon Draisaitl or Tim Stützle being as big a difference makers as expected.

It was a slow start to the Olympics for Denmark, but this team found its form as the group stage progressed. There seemed to be some challenges integrating guys like Lars Eller and Nikolaj Ehlers into the lineup, which put Denmark behind the eight ball. They figured those issues out a touch too late, but they’re a dark horse team that could make a bronze run.

Another team I expected to see much more out of. The Czechia roster is stacked, and entering the Olympics I thought they would be a solid bronze medal pick with the likes of Martin Necas, David Pastrnak and Tomas Hertl — but things just didn’t really come together for this team in the group stage. There’s a definite potential they were coasting a little, knowing the games don’t matter until now, but it was still surprising to see such a ho-hum performance.

The Swiss were a really pleasant surprise in the group stage who swung above their weight class in every game. They didn’t get run over by Canada, managed to beat Czechia in overtime, and are benefiting from Timo Meier being the engine of this team to create opportunities and set the tempo.

Slovakia were very inconsistent in the group stage with some soaring highs, and mind-boggling performances. Opening the games with a 4-1 win over Finland asserted Slovakia as a team to watch. Unfortunately, much of the hype ended there — struggling far too much against Italy, and getting outclassed by Sweden. This team can be very, very good but we need to see them find their edge again.

Sweden is an excellent all-around team without a lot of pop. These games have been full of steady, reliable performances from Sweden, but also appear to be lacking the top-end firepower to make it past the best teams in this tournament. Still, I see this team being a lock to be in the bronze medal game because of their consistency at every position.

Outside of an opening loss to Slovakia the Fins have been fantastic this tournament. A deep roster full of NHL talent clearly took a little time to bond, but came together to play some of the prettiest hockey this tournament. When everything is clicking for Finland they can be tough to beat, which is why they have an outside chance of pulling off an upset and making it to the gold medal game.

The United States have been largely fantastic this tournament, but with one notable exception: Goaltending. Team USA didn’t face a lot of shots in the group stage because of their prolific, smothering defense — which made it alarming that both Connor Hellebuyck and Jeremy Swayman looked so weak in their earlier games. In order for USA to reach its potential, they’re going to need to convert more of their looks, and thankfully, Auston Matthews took on the scoring role he needed to in the USA’s win over Germany.

A weak schedule prevents us from knowing how good this team is, but the prevailing feeling moving on is that Team USA is good, but not on the same level as our No. 1 team.

Yeah, this Canadian team is just ridiculous. I had some worries entering the games that Team Canada was sending a roster that was too center-heavy and relied on too many forwards playing out of their natural positions. Instead weve seen this team roll three playmakers deep on every line, overwhelming their opponents are being elite on every shift.

The biggest breakout these games has been Macklin Celebrini, who has had a killer season in the NHL — but during these Olympics he’s been one of the best, most consistent scorers on the Canadian roster. This team ostensibly has no weakness.