Rubble without a cause: What’s America’s Iran endgame?

It’s hard to put in words what a colossal mess the US-Israeli attacks on Iran have caused, both in the Gulf region and globally. Running for over a week now, with neither a clear cause for war, nor any discernible long-term plan, these strikes have only emboldened the extremist hardliners in Iran’s government, while wreaking havoc around the Persian Gulf, where millions now live in fear of terror and displacement.

The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader signals that the defiance of Iran’s regime has not been broken, even as its military capacities have been severely limited. Their grip on power and the use of force against their own people has not been diminished. To the contrary, I fear that crackdowns will only intensify as the mullahs dig in their heels.

I have long been an outspoken supporter of Iran’s pro-democracy movement and called for regime change many times. But bombing Iran without a clear plan of what a transition of power in a country of over 92 million people could look like is not only futile, it’s reckless and dangerous. The failure of previous US efforts in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya should be a cautionary tale.

No less surprising is the turmoil and the uncertainty this conflict has caused around the world. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been reduced to a trickle, oil prices have reached nearly $120 a barrel, gas prices are up, as are the prices of countless other commodities. The knock-on effect on global supply chains is significant. The G7 is holding an emergency meeting to discuss the coordinated release of strategic oil reserves. There is even talk of a looming recession., And of course, consumers everywhere are already feeling the squeeze. After a long period of rising prices during and after the COVID pandemic, this is piling on more misery.

To make things even worse, rising oil prices are also creating a windfall for Vladimir Putin’s war chest, as the Trump administration has lifted sanctions to allow Russia to export more oil to countries like India. This will only prolong the war and the suffering in Ukraine, which, thanks to Trump’s latest adventure, seems to have dropped from the global headlines altogether. It is remarkable that the brave Ukrainians are sharing their unmatched expertise in drone warfare to help Arab countries defend themselves, whilst Ukraine has been repeatedly denied the decisive support that could have secured its sovereignty and territorial integrity a long time ago.

The question that remains is why America has chosen to go to war once again. Over the last week, the world has been given a multitude of reasons why an attack on Iran was necessary – from threats to US national security, to regime change, to eliminating what remained of Iran’s nuclear programme. None of these have held up under scrutiny. If the world is asked to go through hell and high water for another American war, there should be a crystal-clear and justifiable cause. When Winston Churchill prepared Britain for blood, sweat, toil and tears, he knew he had to do this to defend Britain’s sovereignty and its freedom against an overwhelming totalitarian threat. Sadly, Trump is no Churchill. Our fathers and grandfathers knew what they were fighting for. Do American troops know what they are fighting for now? Sadly, I have my doubts.