Democrat Abigail Spanberger holds a 10-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears (51%-41%) in the November election for governor of Virginia, according to the Roanoke College Poll. Only 4% of likely voters are undecided, and 1% said they would vote for someone else.
The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College interviewed 1,041 likely voters in Virginia between Oct. 22 and Oct. 27, 2025. The survey has a weighted margin of error of 4.05%.
In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid (42%-40%), while Republican incumbent Jason Miyares now leads Democrat Jay Jones (46%-38%) in the race for attorney general.
Two-thirds (67%) of likely voters are very enthusiastic about voting, and 23% are somewhat enthusiastic. Threats to democracy (29%) and inflation (24%) were named by respondents as the most important issue in the election, followed by immigration (12%), taxes (5%), abortion (5%), and crime (5%).
Job Approval and Favorable/Unfavorable
President Donald Trump’s job approval rating (40%) is essentially unchanged from the last Roanoke College Poll in August. Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s job approval rating (50%) is the same as August, but his disapproval declined by 7 percentage points.
Spanberger’s rating (47% favorable/42% unfavorable) shows an increase in both numbers from August. The same is also true for Earle-Sears (38% favorable/45% unfavorable).
Impact of Jay Jones’ Texts
A large majority of likely voters (80%) say they have heard or read about texts sent by Jay Jones in 2022, in which he fantasized about shooting then-House of Delegates Speaker Todd Gilbert.
We asked respondents about the impact that information had on their vote. Of the early voters who already cast their ballot for Jones, 87% said they would have voted for Jones anyway, while only 1% said they would have switched their vote to Miyares. Another 5% said they would not have voted in that election, and 8% declined to answer.
Analysis
“Like most elections, this one will be determined by voter turnout and how independents vote,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College. “While Spanberger appears to have maximized her Democratic support, Earle-Sears could slightly increase her support among Republicans, and she needs to make more inroads with independents with very little time left to do so.”
“The races for lieutenant governor and attorney general are both within the poll’s margin of error, though the latter just barely so. Reid has done well to solidify his partisan support but needs a little help from independents, while Hashmi could do better with her partisans.”
“While Jones has clearly lost some support among Democrats, they have not moved over to support Miyares, suggesting they may either ‘come home’ in the end or simply not vote in that race. As concerning for Jones, Miyares now narrowly leads among independents. It may be unprecedented to see such a divergence between the race for governor and attorney general. Everyone who ever contemplates running for public office might consider holding their tongue and stilling their hands on occasion.”
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