‘Super Mario Galaxy Movie’ Box Office Opening Weekend Projections

Mario and Luigi are about to turbocharge the box office.

“The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” is aiming for $175 million to $180 million in its first five days of release. Since its predecessor, 2023’s “The Super Mario Bros. Movie,” was enormously popular, exhibitors and independent tracking services believe that initial ticket sales will power to $190 million to $200 million. Like the original, Universal is getting a jump on the weekend by launching the family film in 4,000 North American theaters on Wednesday.

At the international box office, “Mario” is expected to generate at least $175 million, bringing its global tally to somewhere around $350 million to $375 million. “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” will easily rank as the biggest debut of the year, ahead of March’s “Project Hail Mary” with $80.5 million in North America and $140 million globally over the traditional three day weekend.

These are blockbuster figures, but “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” will need to climb toward the higher end of projections to match the start of the first film. “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” powered to $204 million in its five-day domestic debut (including $146 million over the traditional weekend) and $171 million overseas, resulting in a stellar $375 million worldwide. Thanks to four-quadrant appeal and multi-generational love for the Nintendo video game, “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” ended up as the second-highest grossing release of 2023 with $1.3 billion.

“The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” cost $110 million to produce, not including the studio’s global promotional efforts. Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic returned to direct the sequel, which follows the Brooklyn-based plumbers known as Mario and Luigi as the venture into outer space. They’re joined by new and old pals including Yoshi, Princess Peach and Toad as they face off against Bowser and his son, Bowser Jr. The voice cast is led by Chris Pratt as Mario, Anya Taylor-Joy as Princess Peach, Charlie Day as Luigi, Jack Black as Bowser, Keegan-Michael Key as Toad, Donald Glover as Yoshi and Benny Safdie as Bowser Jr.

This weekend’s other new release is A24’s twisted romance tale “The Drama,” starring Zendaya and Robert Pattinson. Bolstered by positive reviews, it’s targeting a solid launch around $12 million to $15 million from 3,000 domestic venues. That’s in line with A24’s breakout hit “Materialists” ($11.3 million to start) and Zendaya’s last film “Challengers” ($15 million to start), which appealed to similar demographics as “The Drama.” Directed by Kristoffer Borgli, the R-rated film follows a happily engaged couple whose wedding week goes off the rails after an unexpected revelation. It carries a budget of around $28 million.

“Mario” will tower over the domestic box office and knock down the reigning champ, Amazon MGM’s “Project Hail Mary.” The space odyssey, starring Ryan Gosling, is projected to add $30 million in its third weekend of release. So far, the film has grossed $164 million domestically and $300 million globally after 10 days on the big screen. It already ranks as Amazon’s highest grossing film of all time, overtaking 2023’s “Creed III” with $276 million worldwide.